Yep, and it started a snowball effect of them needing to conquer more in order to drive out the resistance that fled into other Muslim Caucasian territory and that would eventually result in the Circassian genocide. Thankfully with no Russian Caucasus here, this vicious cycle won't begin.
Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun
- Thread starter Ambassador Huntsman
- Start date
Japan needs to go hog in the East before Russia gets strong. Luckily the massive distances means that Japan is favored because Russian troops are never going to make it from the European side to the Pacific Coast before the war ends lmao
Excellent look at the happenings in Russia and the east. Though I wonder if Japan will be ready for the Russian Bear?
Hello,
It appears to be the same problems during the last expedition. Distance is a prominent factor with land travel being slower than sea travel. A poor to non-existent road system does not help. I cannot remember if the Russians now have a Pacific port ITTL. With the Japanese having an embassy in Europe along with diplomatic contacts, one way or the other they will eventually receive word of Peter's far east expedition and then delivered by ship back to the home islands.
Thank you!!
No guarantee of a non-Russian Caucasus lasting into the future but atm due to an alternate Ottoman-Safavid war in the 1660s, the Caucasus is fully under the thumb of Constantinople.
Yup…
I do think it's relatively plausible that Russia conquers a lot of the Caucasus for securing the borderlands between it and the ottomans and safavids.
Tbf it'd be fun to see an alternative scenario with more Armenian resistance against the ottomans especially in the 19th century (like an actual Armenian revolution in like cilicia) or a Azerbaijan that manages to be bigger than otl because it split from Iran.
Speaking of I'm really interested in how Crete evolves. As time goes on as they continue to be Venice's holdings I wonder if they'd have more or less power. We'd probably see a more European Crete compared to the rest of Greece at least, and as long as it isn't conquered by the ottomans they'd probably harbour greek nationalists too. Interesting times for Crete indeed...
I really liked the update! Seeing things moving in Europe will always be interesting to see.
Why though? What do the Caucasus offer that is more valuable than the rest of Crimea or Bessarabia for instance? Remember, OTL Peter I only went there due to rumors of gold and the rest of the conquests were a sunken cost fallacy that spend unnecessary amounts of lives and money that the Baku oil wouldn't pay back.
At best, I see the capture of the Caucasus becoming something over to serve as a trading peg over more valuable lands elsewhere.
I think it's possible especially when the ottomans are crumbling and the safavids are becoming weaker. Like in the 19th century when Russia expanded everywhere.
Russia can also leverage Christian sentiments against the 'muslim oppressors'.
It would run in the same issue as a Hapsburg-Safavid Alliance to use as a example: the distance between them would make cooperation immensely difficult not to mention the distance kneecaping the possibility of sending support in the form of materials and money any meaningful window of time.
You could make a argument given the Franco-Japanese Alliance during the war but in that case the French already had committed outposts to draw troops from, kept sending reinforcements and the alliance was more of a war convenience that only lasted during the war period instead of being a permanent thing.
Assuming the Ottomans will crumble in the first place, their decline wasn't inevitable and especially TTL with the recent reforms, they'll seemingly have a few more years to get their act together if they want to better resist the Christian powers.
If they want to leverage that sentiment, they're much more likely to do it in Bessarabia, the Crimean Khanate and Romania instead of the Caucasus as even before Peter's foray into Azerbaijan, the travelers he had sent there to survey the region complained about the "Armenian's weird Christian faith" and that the Georgians weren't dissatisfied with Muslim rule and wouldn't want to be "liberated", so already whatever chance the Russians may have in advancing into the region drops to zero without the rumors of gold.
Ottoman-Japanese relations are relatively amicable at the moment since the Constaninople embassy of 1641, with trade and the Franco-Japanese alliance being key in making that relationship as it is.
Got it, although i still want the Ottomans to be beaten to the ground.
I think Armenia would be amenable to such platitudes.
tbf I don't see the Ottomans doing well in the future. They're stuck with a heterogenous empire with a lot of conflict points that they can only stay on top of when they're powerful. Also would the reforms continue into the 19th and 20th centuries?
I'm talking about the long game here.
Why? Ottomans aren't actively persecuting them and they have nothing to offer to Russia that would make them worthy of being conquered.
Again, that's not a given for them to fall apart especially given how the majority of Greeks and Bulgarians for instance were loyal to the empire for a variety of reasons for most of it's existence, which a specific set of circumstances that were required for them to year for independence, something which is not set in stone to happen TTL.
So no, I don't think it's impossible for the ottomans to survive here, especially if the Russians are busier fighting against the Poles and the Swedes instead of them, which is already a huge breather room for them.
I think there's still a lot of unknowns for that to be the case either. Frankly the Ottomans fallling is otl and considering their model of ruling it only takes a bad sultan or two in a critical period to seriously fuck over the empire. I'm just saying that it's a bigger possibility (but I don't see huntsman going that direction either?) and I'm extrapolating out of a weakened Ottoman empire where the Europeans want to extract their pound of flesh.
I just think there's also a lot more to explore from other scenarios such as an earlier and more concerted Armenian uprising for example. I've seen Ottoman Empire survival tls done to death and I'm frankly bored of surviving Ottoman empire stuff as a result. tbf same for meiji China. Of course that's my personal preference and why I don't want to see it happen.
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Okay but why? What does Armenia gain from starting a rebellion when the Ottomans haven't done anything bad to them? Who would support them for that? Do they go independent or try and become a Russian province?(If Russia wants them in the first place)
I just really don't see it happening because the status quo hasn't proved crushing enough to start a rebellion nor have the Ottomans any reason to oppress Armenia
yeah — personally, I don't want to see the world wanked too much as much as some form of a law of equivalent exchange happening, i.e., some other part of the world going to shit in exchange for Japan and Northeastern Asia getting better
That said — what's the region that's most likely to become our version of Syria? West Africa and the Congo are pretty likely to still be just as improverished as IOTL due to the Atlantic slave trade and their short distance from the European colonisers, and the Ottoman Empire can always collapse rather spectacularly — but there's also the uncertainty surrounding the Hindu-Muslim strife in the Indian subcontinent and the several questions surrounding China that are quite the low-hanging fruits which we can replace the Ottoman implosion with.
Of course — that contrivance is still ideally accorded to plausibility and probability. If something's pretty unlikely to happen, then it may as well not happen at all short of black swans or repeated fumbles in the dice.
That said — what's the region that's most likely to become our version of Syria? West Africa and the Congo are pretty likely to still be just as improverished as IOTL due to the Atlantic slave trade and their short distance from the European colonisers, and the Ottoman Empire can always collapse rather spectacularly — but there's also the uncertainty surrounding the Hindu-Muslim strife in the Indian subcontinent and the several questions surrounding China that are quite the low-hanging fruits which we can replace the Ottoman implosion with.
Of course — that contrivance is still ideally accorded to plausibility and probability. If something's pretty unlikely to happen, then it may as well not happen at all short of black swans or repeated fumbles in the dice.
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