Deleted member 1487
Edit: ninja-ed
Alright having breezed through the relevant chapters in Barbarossa Derailed, I didn't see a list of escapees from the pocket, so that much is still unknown, but I am willing to state that probably most of the Soviet 16th, 19th, and 20th armies had their combat elements reduced to around 10% of strength if they survived at all, so were effectively ground down to nubs in the fighting. Later surviving units were used as cadres to rebuilt fighting forces around, but they were largely shattered and lost most of their equipment even if they got out. So in terms of POWs closing the pocket isn't really going to add that many more to the OTL hauls plus KIA/WIA for the Soviets, perhaps maybe 50k or so. However closing the pocket at the right time they could have cut off and wiped out those forces sooner within the pocket, probably ending the pocket by early August or 4-5 days early with lower losses and wiping out Soviet cadres for division/army rebuilding. Though I'm making this number up the Germans might well save 30k casualties during the pocket battle and end it sooner, with the Soviets then leaving with fewer commands to send reinforcements to. Then without the Germans cramming valuable units into a bridgehead that would end up a fire sack and source for at least another 30k unnecessary casualties the Germans could have done a lot more right after Smolensk and Mogliev ended, with Guderian pushing south sooner with greater strength and better defensive positions on this flank, while operations by Kampfgruppe Stumme against the Soviet 22nd army could have started perhaps a week or more sooner and given more time to recover before Typhoon or at least having time/extra forces to follow up against Soviet forces before Typhoon to wear them down and make the pocket battles of October (which might happen sooner ITTL) easier than IOTL. The Soviets would probably even more desperate to attack and more reckless in their operational conduct with a swifter collapse of the Smolensk pocket, which would have all sorts of knock on consequences going forward.
Alright having breezed through the relevant chapters in Barbarossa Derailed, I didn't see a list of escapees from the pocket, so that much is still unknown, but I am willing to state that probably most of the Soviet 16th, 19th, and 20th armies had their combat elements reduced to around 10% of strength if they survived at all, so were effectively ground down to nubs in the fighting. Later surviving units were used as cadres to rebuilt fighting forces around, but they were largely shattered and lost most of their equipment even if they got out. So in terms of POWs closing the pocket isn't really going to add that many more to the OTL hauls plus KIA/WIA for the Soviets, perhaps maybe 50k or so. However closing the pocket at the right time they could have cut off and wiped out those forces sooner within the pocket, probably ending the pocket by early August or 4-5 days early with lower losses and wiping out Soviet cadres for division/army rebuilding. Though I'm making this number up the Germans might well save 30k casualties during the pocket battle and end it sooner, with the Soviets then leaving with fewer commands to send reinforcements to. Then without the Germans cramming valuable units into a bridgehead that would end up a fire sack and source for at least another 30k unnecessary casualties the Germans could have done a lot more right after Smolensk and Mogliev ended, with Guderian pushing south sooner with greater strength and better defensive positions on this flank, while operations by Kampfgruppe Stumme against the Soviet 22nd army could have started perhaps a week or more sooner and given more time to recover before Typhoon or at least having time/extra forces to follow up against Soviet forces before Typhoon to wear them down and make the pocket battles of October (which might happen sooner ITTL) easier than IOTL. The Soviets would probably even more desperate to attack and more reckless in their operational conduct with a swifter collapse of the Smolensk pocket, which would have all sorts of knock on consequences going forward.