Suppose that the European Theater of the Second World War is averted (Germany gets smacked down before 1939 or otherwise backs down before hostilities break out). Without the Fall of France, Japan would not invade Indochina, thus removing the OTL justification for the embargoes on Japan. In the absence of those embargoes, how long will Japan and China continue to fight, and who will win? Would the Soviets intervene at any point? Would the Americans eventually embargo Japan anyway?
No WWII in Europe: How long does the Second Sino-Japanese War last?
- Thread starter Polish Eagle
- Start date
I remember reading a discussion of this just a fwe months ago, but cant find the thread.
My take is that with minimal foreign intervention against Japan or supporting China Japans economy collapses between late 1942 & sometime in 1943. The government is likely to take action earlier. With intervention like embargos Japans economy hits the dangers zone much earlier,
My take is that with minimal foreign intervention against Japan or supporting China Japans economy collapses between late 1942 & sometime in 1943. The government is likely to take action earlier. With intervention like embargos Japans economy hits the dangers zone much earlier,
But does that really end the war when Japan still has troops on the ground and weapons? With their fanatical determination, they can still wage war under desperate circumstances and can still attempt measures to procure supplies of oil and steel, however inadequate. There will be a huge incentive to take big risks as the economic situation gets bad, won't there?
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Depends on the alternatives & their consequences. In latter 1941 Japan made the decision for war in the face of collapsing economy and cessation of key industrial activity, due to the embargos. In that case the alternative to war with the US/Britain was a withdrawl from China, Indo China, & other concessions that would effectively leave Japan a client state of the US.
If the Europeans & US simply sit back and watch into 1942 as Japans economy sinks under the weight of war with China the the bankruptcy of the 'strike China' strategy is clearer, & with the European empires not weakened by a war underway striking anywhere else is more clearly not a option. Consolidation of the pre 1937 empire could be seen as a option. Particularly if the other nations with interests in China pressure the KMT into accepting (even if only temporarily) a peace with some further concessions to Japan.
Ultimately it was the Zaibatsu & related leaders at the top who controlled the central government. In 1937 they allowed the China War faction to proceed as that looked like it would settle the problems with the KMT for a generation & gain further economic benefits in China. The opposition was out voted and intimidated by possible assination. At some point the collapsing economy shifts the concensus in favor of ending a failing policy. The hard core supporters of the China war will become politically isolated & their lives or at least fortunes at greater risk.
Depends on what the KMT will concede. The KMT was not in a good position either. If some third party, maybe a group of European empires, can broker a face saving white peace between Japan & China. The current war can be ended. The Europeans and the US both had some economic leverage over the KMT.
Would the Soviets intervene if Japan's economy starts to tank? Would the prospect of gaining a Manchurian Communist satellite state and avenging the Russo-Japanese War have any appeal? Or would they be content to let Japan and China bleed one another white?
Stalin would prefer to stand back and watch the two destroy each other. He has no need to antagonize the west.
Stalin was the biggest supplier of aid to the KMT, which we gloss over nowadays, and seemed to push for some military action in Manchuria to help prop up the Nationalists. This usually took the form of border disputes he escalated, but if the opportunity was ripe?
Also, Manchuria was a traditional Russian sphere of influence, or he would view it as such.
Sheliak Lawyer
Banned
I'm not convinced a US-Japan pacific war wasn't inevitable anyway. Their could only be one hegemon of the pacific after all.
I'd say Japan throws more and more resources into conquering China.
The failures to achieve their goals in this regard would destabilize the Japanese government, coups and factional infighting would become very likely.
I'd say Japan throws more and more resources into conquering China.
The failures to achieve their goals in this regard would destabilize the Japanese government, coups and factional infighting would become very likely.