alternatehistory.com

Heyho, this is a sister thread to the one I posted about Nazi Germany's possible financial sustainability without WWII.

Basically, I'm doing a mod for the Hearts of Iron 2 game based on EdT's sublime 'A Greater Britain' timeline. The TL sees Oswald Mosley stay with the Labour Party and become Prime Minister, dominating the 1930s. One of the biggest butterflies of this is the Anglo-French-Italian Stresa Front stays intact and goes to war with Germany over Austria in 1938. By the standards of OTL it is a relatively limited war, no major U-Boat campaign, no Blitz, Fighting is contained around Austria and the Balkans etc.

As such Britain if anything benefits from the short, sharp war, or at least doesn't suffer the annihalation of its finances and cities.

The TL is limited to Mosley's time in office which ends (spoiler) in 1940, so nothing is really said of the long-term effects of no World War on Britain.

So for the more economically enlightened on the boards a query: How would the British Empire fare into the 1940s and 50s without WWII? My main interest is its relationship to American economic power. I doubt Britain could stop its loss of global financial hegemony, but without the stimulant of WWII on the USA, it certainly seems that America would be far less able to totally dominate the capitalist world into the next century. The UK never becomes dependent on Lend-Lease, or the Marshall Plan, plus retained US isolationism needs to be taken into account. Can Pound-Sterling retain its position as the currency of trade and oil? No Bretton Woods agreement, plus a strong protectionist lobby active in both the Commonwealth and the TL's European Union, means world trade will be different.

No WWII also means Eastern Europe remains free of Soviet domination.

So, will Britain fare well economically? Or does protectionism and the lack of American money doom a Britain without the 'Special Relationship' to worse decline in the long-run?

On geopolitics, the USA and USSR for that matter's relative isolationism drastically changed the world. The League of Nations whithers ITTL much as in ours, but without a replacement. The Stresa Front dominates Europe, with plenty of friends, a few neutrals and a bitter Germany. Japan is certainly an interesting player ITTL, are they doomed to lock horns with the USA eventually, or will a Soviet Union blocked in Europe seek Eastern expansion?

How does decolonisation fare? Although some timelines like to think the European empires could have continued into the present day somehow, by the 1930s/40s the independence movements are already gathering pace, even without WWII. However, will we see Britain and France take a more Portuguese approach a battle tooth-and-nail to hold on, or possibly a more relaxed handing over of power. Africa's move to independence was particularly rushed, bankruptcy, Soviet-backed nationalist groups, American anti-colonialism etc. all put pressure on Europe to drop and run. Would it be different here, would we see more moderate nationalists, more investment into native infrastructure and bureaucracy with a gentler hand over?

This is all general stuff but in terms of "AGB", British Colonial Policy will be far more effected by two things, 1) India's move to domionship in the late 1930s and 2) strong support in all 3 British political parties for 'liberal' colonialism (as opposed to left-wing anticolonialism or right-wing white-man's burden). The Labour Party's rightwing and the liberal Tories are dominant by 1940 in TTL and both were in general, in favour of independence of strong colonies that could grow further as free nations and be far stronger economic and political allies.
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