No WWI?

Hi there

Are there any good threads on the effect of no / much reduced WWI that anyone can direct me to, or is the time ripe for me to start one?

Cheers,
Amartus
 
yes, it looks at the outcome of WWI if Galipoli succeeds.
we(thebrits) do rather well. cape to cairo railway, imperial parliament, war with Japan in 1990, etc.
 
And anything on more general effects of no / much reduced WWI down the line? What does the world look like in the 20s, and in the 30s? Wars, balance of power, etc.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
No WW1

Germany;
Slow reforms, but will probably slowly evolve to a democracy, probably not under Willy IIs lifetime though.

France;
Obsessed with the loss of Alsace- Lorraine, many possibilities.

Russian Empire;
Will meet hard challenges, probably fall apart if it don't reform. Nicky II would not really want to reform, so probably nothing during his lifetime.

Austria- Hungary;
Will need to reform in the next Ausgleich negotiations, give more self government to the different parts of the Empire. Franz Ferdinand had some symphaties for the Slavs, however he'd need to give a lot of carrots to the Magyars (virtual independence?) to pull it off. Otherwise the Empire is in danger.

Ottomans;
Much more stable without WW1. Will shrink to a third grade power though.

Britain;
Continue to rule the seas.

USA;
Isolationist.

Italy;
Don't know, probably very antagonistic towards Austria though.
 
IIRC somebody did a long winded article quite a while back that basically told us the "Red Alert" storyline where the lack of a first world war would slowly see "The West" have to fight against a [Later] Communist Russia.
 
Germany;
Slow reforms, but will probably slowly evolve to a democracy, probably not under Willy IIs lifetime though.

Germany is around for the long haul then? Will new provincial / other structures evolve, or will the semi-independent kingdoms like Bavaria etc. continue as integral parts of the Empire in their 'present (1914)' form? And what is your opinion of what Germany's colonies will look like? Greater settlement / development or not // same level as Britain and France or not?

Russian Empire;
Will meet hard challenges, probably fall apart if it don't reform. Nicky II would not really want to reform, so probably nothing during his lifetime.

Austria- Hungary;
Will need to reform in the next Ausgleich negotiations, give more self government to the different parts of the Empire. Franz Ferdinand had some symphaties for the Slavs, however he'd need to give a lot of carrots to the Magyars (virtual independence?) to pull it off. Otherwise the Empire is in danger.

Ottomans;
Much more stable without WW1. Will shrink to a third grade power though.

These powers breaking up is not inevitable then? But if (and I realise what a big IF that is) would their break-ups be peaceful / violent - and this for a 20s / 30s / 40s timeframe, not today otl.
 
I think the Kaiser would continue, but places like Bavaria would continue to operate in their semi-independant ways [It still happens today, in the Federal Germany, so...]

The Ottomans would probably collapse under their own weight after a while, the Empire was shrinking and shakey at the start of the war, with the Jews starting to fight out against Imperial rule.

Austro-Hungary wouldn't be distracted by the Russians and Italians fighting them, so would be able to deploy larger numbers of troops to crush, rather than do a deal with the slavs.
 
Ottomans;
Much more stable without WW1. Will shrink to a third grade power though./quote]

The development of the Arabian oil fields is going to provide a boost to the Ottoman economy. That should prevent them sinking too far. Of course, other powers might be interested in stirring up an Arab revolt in order to try and get their hands on some of that oil.

Cheers,
Nigel.
 

Angel Heart

Banned
No WWI at all seems to be a bit ASB since there was a powerful rivalry between the great powers (especially between Britain and Germany). The war was more about setteling old scores. If WWI wouldn't have happened as IOTL, than maybe regional wars might have occured like i.e. Italy VS Austria-Hungary. As long as there is the chain reaction of alliances there will be a war like OTL WWI.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I agree that avoiding WW1 to break out is quite a hard task, you need to get to at least 1920 without any power overstepping, and then you'll need to have some kind of conference where they promise not to attack eachother, however I agree that avoiding WW1 is quite ASB.

When it comes to Empires like Russia, Ottomans and A-H they'd all have chances to survive, but at least A-H and Russia would need to reform, I can see Franz Ferdinand being able to reform A-H with allowing the Slavs to have more autonomy and giving the Magyars even more influence and self- determination. Russia could be much harder, Nicky II would never allow reforms, so obvioulsy he has to go if the Russian Empire is to be saved. For the Ottomans I think the Young Turk dictatorship will falter quite fast without WW1, and that would be very positive for the Ottomans.
 
WWI gave birth to the modern world. Whether it was entirely avoidable is a difficult question to answer. 1914 was easily avoidable, but what about later? Germany, AH, and Russia all three had sinking ships of state. In AH's case, the whole structure was bound to fail; the only question was when. Likewise in Russia, the autocracy had only few more years left; a revolution of some sort was inevitable. Germany had problems of its own. Given time, SPD would have come to power, 1920 or so. The problem is what the German reactionaries would have done. Both Wilhelm II and the General Staff were fixated on coup to overthrow the constitution and bring out a corporatist government that dispenses with universal suffrage and direct elections. However, historians debate whether the German Right were truly serious about a coup and whether they truly had the support of military units to pull off a coup without a civil war. Barring a coup, a SPD-dominated Reichstag chipping away at executive powers was a historical inevitability. The billion dollar question is basically how many years of peace do we get if we assume that Sarajevo and thus 1914 never happened. As more and more years pass from 1914, the Old Europe would start to disappear, Russia and AH being the most likely candidates.
 
Could we posit no WWI, and instead the collapse of the AH Empire, and the fall of Russia into civil war and chaos, say sometime in the late teens / early 20s? Perhaps even related; the one coming on from the other? Any ideas how this might occur / how to make this occur? Perhaps the involvement of the other great powers in these empires' dissolution would ease tensions somewhat? And the Ottoman Empire was also multi-national; wouldn't this have destabilised things as the 20th century progressed?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
As I said earlier, the Ottomans have the best chance of the three to survive, just get rid of the Young Turks, and I don't think they'd survive in power without WW1.

Austria- Hungary; Remember before WW1 the Czechs and the Galizian Poles both wanted to reform the Empire rather than seek independence. In the war soldiers found themselves under officers who only knew German (a language the soldiers didn't necessary master), and many people wondered why they fought for a "foreign power". With Franz Ferdinand in charge, a reformer who had slavic symphaties the empire could survive, but would probably have to reform into a federation. I see more problems coming from Budapest, as the Magyars would be against any reforms that threaten their "special status". I could see Hungary becoming virtually independent (only way they'd agree) and Austria- Hungary being reformed into a federation consisting of Austria (including Slovenia and Trieste), Bohemia, Galizia, Hungary (the kingdom) and Bosnia- Dalmatia. Further Croatia would probably be in a special federation with Hungary. But I agree, if Franz Ferdinand's reforms fail the Empire would probably fall.

Russia; This is hard, there are several movements that want to topple the monarchy, as well as ethnic groups dreaming of independence. Russia would need a reformer to survive, but with Nicky II... things look very bad.
 
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