No WWI; what does an Austria-Hungary led by Franz Ferdinand look like?

CaliGuy

Banned
Had Franz Ferdinand not gotten assassinated and none of the other crises which occurred during this time escalated into a general European war, what would a surviving Austria-Hungary led by Franz Ferdinand have looked like?

Specifically, what would its economy, society, and military have looked like as the years and decades progressed?

Also, I am assuming that Franz Ferdinand would have had to deal with a short civil war as a result of a Hungarian rebellion in 1917 in this TL. However, if/after this revolt is crushed, what exactly does Franz Ferdinand do next?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 
I remember making my opinions on FF in several of your A-H related threads, Cali, so I'm not going to repeat myself too much. :coldsweat:

I mostly want to point out that FF does not have a good chance of living for very long after he succeeds FJ- Hell, FJ might outlive him anyways like OTL. No, not because angry Magyars assassinate him or something. Franz Ferdinand had tuberculosis since the early 1900s- it was enough to make people believe that he would renounce his rights to the throne. Of course, that's not the point of the question, but it's a tidbit that is always forgotten about the man despite how well-known his poor health was at the time.

Rergardless of my notoriously negative opinion on FF, it's actually very hard to pinpoint exactly what he would do. Supposedly, he was pretty impulsive and changed his mind very often and contrary to popular belief, he never wanted to enact the US of Greater-Austria. At least, not in the way we know it. He definitely seemed to lean towards a form of Trialism to replace Dualism. Whether this was towards Croatia, Bohemia or all Slavs somehow, I have no idea. He was hellbent on reducing Hungary's status within the Empire, that's for sure. His hatred of the Magyars is more notorious than my hatred for him. XD

I'm honestly not sure how much the economy would be affected. Obviously, with no war, A-H's economic growth continues uninterrupted, though we can assune it'll slow down eventually. If FF manages to reel-in Hungary, then the latter's prosperity will undoubtedly be hit pretty hard and considering his neo-absolutist tendencies and desires to centralise, that can only spell bad things for the regional economies that strive thanks to the autonomy of the regions and the investment from the local governments.

Society-wise, the problems are much more obvious. Like I said, Franz Ferdinand was much more autocratic than his apologists make him to be. Since he also looked down upon the non-Germab ethnicities of the Empire, I don't think he had much to contribute to the Nationalities Question. At least, not much to mend the problems raised by it. In fact, I see him more likely to make thinfs worse. When FF replaces FJ, he will seriously need to address the issue since he can't continue to ignore it like FJ did. It'll just piss off the minorities, after all. Since he never really showed any interest in doing so other than blaming Hungarians and vowing to destroy their power, I doubt he would be able to do much good (if not make things much worse through his Magyarophobia and Germanophilia).

Speaking of Germanophilia, it's pretty clear that FF and Wilhelm II had a very good relationship, so the alliance isn't going anywhere with FF at the helm. He's going to need him when/if the Magyars (and likely many others) decide they've had enough.

Oh, I also recently read on the German wiki that Franz Ferdinand intended to take to reign as Franz II (and not Franz Ferdinand I as I've seen so often here). Not too subtle about his absolutist tendencies there, Franzl.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
I mostly want to point out that FF does not have a good chance of living for very long after he succeeds FJ- Hell, FJ might outlive him anyways like OTL. No, not because angry Magyars assassinate him or something. Franz Ferdinand had tuberculosis since the early 1900s- it was enough to make people believe that he would renounce his rights to the throne. Of course, that's not the point of the question, but it's a tidbit that is always forgotten about the man despite how well-known his poor health was at the time.
When did he aquired this infection ?
Tuberculosis per se isn't a must-be-killer. People can and have lived quite longe lives after an infection even in antique times (pharaos and other mummies). It depends much on how long you live with the infection and what parts of your body (organs) might be affected.
 
When did he aquired this infection ?
Tuberculosis per se isn't a must-be-killer. People can and have lived quite longe lives after an infection even in antique times (pharaos and other mummies). It depends much on how long you live with the infection and what parts of your body (organs) might be affected.
German wiki doesn't give a precise date, but it says he had terrible bouts of lung tuberculosis during his military service, which got so bad that he was temporarely off active servicd in 1895. His mother had died of it previously, though I have no idea of that means anything in this case. I really don't know much about these things, but it was apparently serious enough for contemporaries to doubt his succession at the tine.
 
When did he aquired this infection ?
Tuberculosis per se isn't a must-be-killer. People can and have lived quite longe lives after an infection even in antique times (pharaos and other mummies). It depends much on how long you live with the infection and what parts of your body (organs) might be affected.

There were a number of tuberculosis sanitariums in the Alps.

I wouldn't see it out of place for FF to want a location built where he would spend much of his time.
A new Palace in the Julian Alps?
 
There were a number of tuberculosis sanitariums in the Alps.

I wouldn't see it out of place for FF to want a location built where he would spend much of his time.
A new Palace in the Julian Alps?

With his tendency towards Neo-Absoltism? Don't hold your breath. The man was, at the very least, dedicated to restoring A-H's power, stability, and prestige, which means he's likely to want to stay in Veinna and take a very active roll in government. If anything, I see the man working himself into an early grave.
 
Half the country (or more) is placed under long-term military governorates. The militarized administration is given a vast array of powers to crush ethnic or social unrest, repress both parliamentary and non-parliamentary opposition to the regime, and enforce Franz Ferdinand's absolutist vision in general. It is augmented by a greatly increased censorship and various other authoritarian steps.

Neither "Trialism" nor proper federalization will take place. Formally, the existing crownlands will not change much; in practice, there will be a strong centralization and any autonomy left to the crownlands will be a total farce. The parliaments (those which had any power or autonomy to begin with) will be reduced to decorations or outright abolished. The German language will be assigned a more important administrative position across the empire.

Some possible changes to the crownlands:
-Franz Ferdinand would start frothing at the mouth whenever someone called him "King"; he wanted to be "Emperor" in every corner of the monarchy, not just in Austria. Thus, he may somehow subordinate the Hungarian crown, formally reducing Hungary to the status of an imperial province.
-Some suggest FF wanted to separate the Bohemian Germans from the Czechs and annex them to Austria proper.
-Hungarian influence over Bosnia would end, and Vienna would rule the region alone.
-Croatia may be formally separated from Hungary, but this is uncertain. And even if it happens, it won't be Trialism; Budapest's overlordship over Croatia will simply be replaced by the equally annoying (and probably far more severe) overlordship of a neo-absolutist Vienna.

National separatism will continue growing; in fact, it will experience an explosion in popularity and ambition.
In the first few months after crushing the Hungarian rebellion, "Franz II" would be cautiously supported by a few nations, such as Romanians or Slovaks. This support will quickly disappear once they realize that - while FF has much to take from the Hungarians - he has very little (if anything) to give to them... in other words: that FF is more conservative than Franz Joseph or the Hungarian oligarchy were, and far more strict and ruthless in his methods.
Nations which were already strongly alienated from Vienna will be driven to new heights of radical separatism by FF's ham-fisted rule. Especially (but not exclusively) the Serbs, once FF hands power to his old friends - the fascistoid Frankist party - in Croatia.
The Magyars will be thoroughly estranged from the government, and a serious Hungarian separatist movement will join the ranks of the Serbian, Czech and other movements.

Social radicalism would also grow and overlap with national separatism, helped along by FF's open and shameless support for feudalism and aristocratic domination over the countryside.

All in all; with the general repression, and violence against Hungarians, Serbs and God knows who else...the new Emperor will soon have to look out not just for Gavrilo Princip; but also for Gábriel Alapelv and a dozen of his cousins. The Empire's long term prospects don't look great - "decades" may be too optimistic.
 
Franz Ferdinand developed lung problems in his early twenties In the mid 1890's he was quite ill. He was kept isolated from official matters until around 1898. It was during this time that he met Sophie. By 1914, the illness was long past and he was leading a vigorous life. That sad, people were quite unhealthy at the time and he was 51. Death could come quickly or he could live well into his eighties or nineties. No one knows for sure

What his plans for the Empire were, no one can say for sure. He wanted reform and to break the power of the Hungarian nobles but specifics changed from time to time. His overarching view that good relations with Russia were needed may be too late. After the Balkan wars the easy partition ideas were gone
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Franz Ferdinand developed lung problems in his early twenties In the mid 1890's he was quite ill. He was kept isolated from official matters until around 1898. It was during this time that he met Sophie. By 1914, the illness was long past and he was leading a vigorous life. That sad, people were quite unhealthy at the time and he was 51. Death could come quickly or he could live well into his eighties or nineties. No one knows for sure
Nothing to add from a professionals view.
Though ... the "stress" which as pointed out would come anyway would still "work hard" on him, making him passing 65 ... difficult.
 
Franz Ferdinand developed lung problems in his early twenties In the mid 1890's he was quite ill. He was kept isolated from official matters until around 1898. It was during this time that he met Sophie. By 1914, the illness was long past and he was leading a vigorous life. That sad, people were quite unhealthy at the time and he was 51. Death could come quickly or he could live well into his eighties or nineties.

Fair enough. Then again, his 'lifestyle' almost got him killed a couple of months before his assassination. He almost got shot at a hunting trip in Britain.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Half the country (or more) is placed under long-term military governorates. The militarized administration is given a vast array of powers to crush ethnic or social unrest, repress both parliamentary and non-parliamentary opposition to the regime, and enforce Franz Ferdinand's absolutist vision in general. It is augmented by a greatly increased censorship and various other authoritarian steps.

This seems like it could easily pave the way for a revolution to occur in Austria-Hungary. Indeed, is FF prepared for that or is he blind to this like Nicholas II was in our TL?

Neither "Trialism" nor proper federalization will take place. Formally, the existing crownlands will not change much; in practice, there will be a strong centralization and any autonomy left to the crownlands will be a total farce. The parliaments (those which had any power or autonomy to begin with) will be reduced to decorations or outright abolished.

So, even the Austrian Parliament will get stripped of whatever power it has?

The German language will be assigned a more important administrative position across the empire.

Thus causing the amount of separatism in Austria-Hungary to increase even further, correct?

Some possible changes to the crownlands:
-Franz Ferdinand would start frothing at the mouth whenever someone called him "King"; he wanted to be "Emperor" in every corner of the monarchy, not just in Austria. Thus, he may somehow subordinate the Hungarian crown, formally reducing Hungary to the status of an imperial province.

OK.

-Some suggest FF wanted to separate the Bohemian Germans from the Czechs and annex them to Austria proper.

Wasn't Czechia already a part of Austria, though?

-Hungarian influence over Bosnia would end, and Vienna would rule the region alone.
-Croatia may be formally separated from Hungary, but this is uncertain. And even if it happens, it won't be Trialism; Budapest's overlordship over Croatia will simply be replaced by the equally annoying (and probably far more severe) overlordship of a neo-absolutist Vienna.

OK.

National separatism will continue growing; in fact, it will experience an explosion in popularity and ambition.
In the first few months after crushing the Hungarian rebellion, "Franz II" would be cautiously supported by a few nations, such as Romanians or Slovaks. This support will quickly disappear once they realize that - while FF has much to take from the Hungarians - he has very little (if anything) to give to them... in other words: that FF is more conservative than Franz Joseph or the Hungarian oligarchy were, and far more strict and ruthless in his methods.

What about the (ethnic) Hungarian peasants? Would they likewise become dissatisfied with FF's rule pretty quickly in spite of his implementation of universal suffrage in Hungary?

Nations which were already strongly alienated from Vienna will be driven to new heights of radical separatism by FF's ham-fisted rule. Especially (but not exclusively) the Serbs, once FF hands power to his old friends - the fascistoid Frankist party - in Croatia.

Are the Frankists going to rule Bosnia and Vojvodina too or merely Croatia?

The Magyars will be thoroughly estranged from the government, and a serious Hungarian separatist movement will join the ranks of the Serbian, Czech and other movements.

Social radicalism would also grow and overlap with national separatism, helped along by FF's open and shameless support for feudalism and aristocratic domination over the countryside.

All in all; with the general repression, and violence against Hungarians, Serbs and God knows who else...the new Emperor will soon have to look out not just for Gavrilo Princip; but also for Gábriel Alapelv and a dozen of his cousins. The Empire's long term prospects don't look great - "decades" may be too optimistic.

OK.

Also, would Austria-Hungary fare better if someone still eventually managed to kill FF? Indeed, would Kaiser Karl be better or would he still become overwhelmed with his new job like he was during WWI in our TL?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I remember making my opinions on FF in several of your A-H related threads, Cali, so I'm not going to repeat myself too much. :coldsweat:

I mostly want to point out that FF does not have a good chance of living for very long after he succeeds FJ- Hell, FJ might outlive him anyways like OTL. No, not because angry Magyars assassinate him or something. Franz Ferdinand had tuberculosis since the early 1900s- it was enough to make people believe that he would renounce his rights to the throne. Of course, that's not the point of the question, but it's a tidbit that is always forgotten about the man despite how well-known his poor health was at the time.

Rergardless of my notoriously negative opinion on FF, it's actually very hard to pinpoint exactly what he would do. Supposedly, he was pretty impulsive and changed his mind very often and contrary to popular belief, he never wanted to enact the US of Greater-Austria. At least, not in the way we know it. He definitely seemed to lean towards a form of Trialism to replace Dualism. Whether this was towards Croatia, Bohemia or all Slavs somehow, I have no idea. He was hellbent on reducing Hungary's status within the Empire, that's for sure. His hatred of the Magyars is more notorious than my hatred for him. XD

I'm honestly not sure how much the economy would be affected. Obviously, with no war, A-H's economic growth continues uninterrupted, though we can assune it'll slow down eventually. If FF manages to reel-in Hungary, then the latter's prosperity will undoubtedly be hit pretty hard and considering his neo-absolutist tendencies and desires to centralise, that can only spell bad things for the regional economies that strive thanks to the autonomy of the regions and the investment from the local governments.

Society-wise, the problems are much more obvious. Like I said, Franz Ferdinand was much more autocratic than his apologists make him to be. Since he also looked down upon the non-Germab ethnicities of the Empire, I don't think he had much to contribute to the Nationalities Question. At least, not much to mend the problems raised by it. In fact, I see him more likely to make thinfs worse. When FF replaces FJ, he will seriously need to address the issue since he can't continue to ignore it like FJ did. It'll just piss off the minorities, after all. Since he never really showed any interest in doing so other than blaming Hungarians and vowing to destroy their power, I doubt he would be able to do much good (if not make things much worse through his Magyarophobia and Germanophilia).

Speaking of Germanophilia, it's pretty clear that FF and Wilhelm II had a very good relationship, so the alliance isn't going anywhere with FF at the helm. He's going to need him when/if the Magyars (and likely many others) decide they've had enough.

Oh, I also recently read on the German wiki that Franz Ferdinand intended to take to reign as Franz II (and not Franz Ferdinand I as I've seen so often here). Not too subtle about his absolutist tendencies there, Franzl.
Thanks for sharing all of this information! :)

Also, two questions:

1. Didn't Franz Ferdinand want to implement universal suffrage in Hungary?
2. Do you think that Austria-Hungary would have been likely to experience a revolution in either the 1920s or 1930s in this TL?
 
Had Franz Ferdinand not gotten assassinated and none of the other crises which occurred during this time escalated into a general European war, what would a surviving Austria-Hungary led by Franz Ferdinand have looked like?

Specifically, what would its economy, society, and military have looked like as the years and decades progressed?

Also, I am assuming that Franz Ferdinand would have had to deal with a short civil war as a result of a Hungarian rebellion in 1917 in this TL. However, if/after this revolt is crushed, what exactly does Franz Ferdinand do next?

Any thoughts on all of this?

It'd a big mess. An empire whose situation is desperate, but not serious.
 
This seems like it could easily pave the way for a revolution to occur in Austria-Hungary. Indeed, is FF prepared for that or is he blind to this like Nicholas II was in our TL?

He thought Nicholas II had the right ideas, so...you can see where all this is probably going.
So, even the Austrian Parliament will get stripped of whatever power it has?
That is certainly what Franz Ferdinand would have liked to do to it. After all, he opposed the expansion of suffrage in Austria itself.
Thus causing the amount of separatism in Austria-Hungary to increase even further, correct?
It would encourage further separatism, although there will be more important things to worry about anyway.
Wasn't Czechia already a part of Austria, though?
Sort of, but not completely. And after the meteoric rise of the Czech national revival, the Germans in Bohemia began to view the unity of those crownlands as a threat to their own national identity and national goals.
What about the (ethnic) Hungarian peasants? Would they likewise become dissatisfied with FF's rule pretty quickly in spite of his implementation of universal suffrage in Hungary?
Yes. Even if they get universal suffrage (which is by no means guaranteed), they sure won't be getting universal suffrage to a parliament that actually means something. Meanwhile, FF's championing of aristocracy and their estates, and his serious Magyarophobia, will be there to further heat up the mood.
Are the Frankists going to rule Bosnia and Vojvodina too or merely Croatia?
Vojvodina - no. Bosnia - maybe, maybe not; although they'd have at least a little influence in whatever regime FF plops down there.
Also, would Austria-Hungary fare better if someone still eventually managed to kill FF? Indeed, would Kaiser Karl be better or would he still become overwhelmed with his new job like he was during WWI in our TL?

It's certainly good for Karl's prospects if the Empire he inherits is not, like OTL, halfway into a devastating and destabilizing war. He may have a chance, but it all depends on the time and circumstances of FF's assassination.
 
Thanks for sharing all of this information! :)

Also, two questions:

1. Didn't Franz Ferdinand want to implement universal suffrage in Hungary?
2. Do you think that Austria-Hungary would have been likely to experience a revolution in either the 1920s or 1930s in this TL?
1. Good lord. I'd definitely go with 'no' on that one. Pretty sure he wanted to get rid of the Hungarian Diet altogether.
2. That... is a very interesting scenario. Then again, I do love me some Austromarxism and commie Austro-Hungarian successor state.
 
Top