No WWI, Third Balkan war instead

Have you completly forgoten about the 1905 revolution? By this point there was nothing anyone could have done to stop a revolution in Russia, as even moderate liberals where being arested.

The 1905 Revolution occurred after a disastrous war, and as far as revolutions go was a fairly minor affair, in terms of the aims of the revolutionaries. I don't understand the assertion that a socialist revolution was inevitable without any sort of external stimulus like a general war.
 
It was considering the living conditions of the average russian, a government that was strongly anti-reform, and the growing radicalism of the time. Don't get me wrong, I'm no marxist. I'm just saying that at this point in Russian history the monarchy was doomed. Maybe a democratic government comes out, maybe communist, maybe fascist. Besides, let's look at one of the posibilities listed:

1. Regency council, with the Empress Consort Alexandra alone or with notables of the Royal Family:
Of course the unpopular Rasputin would be part of this as he is the only one who can "cure" the child emperor...
 
It was considering the living conditions of the average russian, a government that was strongly anti-reform, and the growing radicalism of the time. Don't get me wrong, I'm no marxist. I'm just saying that at this point in Russian history the monarchy was doomed. Maybe a democratic government comes out, maybe communist, maybe fascist. Besides, let's look at one of the posibilities listed:

1. Regency council, with the Empress Consort Alexandra alone or with notables of the Royal Family:
Of course the unpopular Rasputin would be part of this as he is the only one who can "cure" the child emperor...

What is the basis for your claim that the monarchy was doomed? I don't see how this is the case. I think that autocratic monarchy was probably not a long-term option, but I think it's just as likely as not that without WWI Russia would still be a monarchy today.
 
ninebucks said:
I wouldn't say Serbia would be crushed. Yes, they'd probably lose such a war, but not for a while. Serbia fought well above its means during WWI whereas Austria fought rather incompetently.

Anaxagoras said:
That's the understatement of the century.

Sorry but no.. just no;

In August 1914 it [The Russian Army] committed 21 infantry divisions against Germany... and some 53 against Austria-Hungary, which fielded 37 smaller infantry divisions against Russia
By almost any measure the Habsburg forces were quantitativley and qualitativley disadvantaged
Conrad's plan for a war against Serbia (without knowing if Russia would join the war or not) was to have A-Staffel ("A-Contingent") defend the Russian frontier (the aformentioned 37 divisions) Minimalgruppe Balkan ("Balkan Minimal Group") , esentially a defensive formation and B-Staffel 'in between' which in a Serbia only war would head south to attack the Serbs or (as in WWI) turn north to attack Russia.

The real problem for A-H, as in most nations of WWI, was that of leadership and 'dithering';

The battle reproduced in miniture what was happening over much of Europe. Determined defenders and a hail of munitions defested a hasty attack plan executed with inadequate forces.
All quotes are from David Stevenson's; 1914 1918
 
Without having to worry about Russia the entire battlestrength of the Austro-Hungarian Army would be able to concentrate on Serbia and destroy it. Romania would likely remain neutral (remember in 1914 it nearly joined the Central powers) or it too might attack the Serbs.
 
Ok, let’s assume the Arch-Duke dies on schedule. Austria invades and Serbia fights alone inflicting massive casualties on the Austrian forces. This shocks the world as it reveals how much people exaggerated Austria-Hungary's power. The Austrians send more troops in and Bulgaria joins forcing an end to the war sometime around June 1915! After the Austrians decide they need to improve their military and increase taxes to pay for it. Meanwhile the occupation forces in Serbia proper are being bled white to the disgust of the populace. The straw that breaks the camels back is plans to federalise the Empire, which the Hungarians strongly oppose. Match is struck, Austria-Hungary in civil war.
 
Ok, let’s assume the Arch-Duke dies on schedule. Austria invades and Serbia fights alone inflicting massive casualties on the Austrian forces. This shocks the world as it reveals how much people exaggerated Austria-Hungary's power. The Austrians send more troops in and Bulgaria joins forcing an end to the war sometime around June 1915! After the Austrians decide they need to improve their military and increase taxes to pay for it. Meanwhile the occupation forces in Serbia proper are being bled white to the disgust of the populace. The straw that breaks the camels back is plans to federalise the Empire, which the Hungarians strongly oppose. Match is struck, Austria-Hungary in civil war.

I think it would be more like: Austria-Hungary invades, crushed Serbia albeit with greater difficulty than expected, war over.

There is no way a war with Serbia is going to bring down the Hapsburgs. Everyone in this era underestimated the difficulties of offensives. Without Russia to worry about, the Hapsburgs can send so much force against Serbia that it won't last long. Everyone seems to forget that in OTL the Austro-Hungarians had the greater part of the Russian army bearing down on them at the same time they were fighting Serbia.
 
I think it would be more like: Austria-Hungary invades, crushed Serbia albeit with greater difficulty than expected, war over.

There is no way a war with Serbia is going to bring down the Hapsburgs. Everyone in this era underestimated the difficulties of offensives. Without Russia to worry about, the Hapsburgs can send so much force against Serbia that it won't last long. Everyone seems to forget that in OTL the Austro-Hungarians had the greater part of the Russian army bearing down on them at the same time they were fighting Serbia.

I agree with you that the Hapsburgs will find it much easier now that they aren't attacking Russia too. But I don't feel what I'm doing is assuming the Austrians are weaker than reality, more like they under estimate the resolve and strength of Serbia. They send in too small an army which gets repulsed and improves the moral of the Serbs. So come back all guns blazing eventually becoming occupiers who suffer continued causalities from a resistance which, is brutality Persecuted leading to Serbian public sympathy. Plus the extra taxes for the army, plus the proposed federalisation, I don't believe it's ASB for Austria to collapse.
 
I agree with you that the Hapsburgs will find it much easier now that they aren't attacking Russia too. But I don't feel what I'm doing is assuming the Austrians are weaker than reality, more like they under estimate the resolve and strength of Serbia. They send in too small an army which gets repulsed and improves the moral of the Serbs. So come back all guns blazing eventually becoming occupiers who suffer continued causalities from a resistance which, is brutality Persecuted leading to Serbian public sympathy. Plus the extra taxes for the army, plus the proposed federalisation, I don't believe it's ASB for Austria to collapse.

They didn't underestimate the resolve and strength of Serbia, they underestimated the difficulty of all offensives, period, as did all other armies of the time. Initial failures would be embarrassing, no doubt, but not cause for the collapse of the entire empire.

The Ottomans did this, and altough they didn't have some of the structural weaknesses the Hapsburg Empire did, they managed to launch some spectacular failures of offensives without collapsing. As did all the other powers.

I'm not sure how an argument makes sense that the A-H Empire would collapse because of a few small Serbian victories, when in OTL a few small Serbian victories in addition to colossal catastrophes on the Russian front failed to cause the empire to collapse.
 
Why is everyone ignoring the fact that in OTL Austrian attacks in 1914. were all beaten?

This was because the Hapsburgs only had two armies available, one of which had to be transferred shortly to the Russian front. That made the attacking general rush his attack with only half his strength. If Russia were not entering the war, not only would the intial Hapsburg attack be twice as strong, it would probably be considerably greater even than that, since very little would be needed for defense against Russia, as opposed to OTL, where the vast majority of Hapsburg forces were required.
 

yourworstnightmare

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If Austria was moving against the Serbs alone, the Serbs would be beaten, not saying it would be a walk in the park for the Austrians, but in the end they would be able to beat Serbia. Can we assume Montenegro join in the war, because they seem to pretty much join Serbia in any war at that time. I think we could easily find Bulgaria at the other side. If we assume Romania and Greece remain neutral (The Romanians fear to got to war with Austria without Russian support, the Greeks decide to not rush to defend Serbia from Bulgaria). I think we'd end up with a surrender of Serbia, with the loss of Macedonia and Nis to Bulgaria, a zone of Autro- Hungarian occupation in Northern Serbia, painfully close to Belgrade, and acceptance of a "puppet" status. Montenegro would be annexed by the Austrians.
 

Deleted member 1487

The Serbs also had a very limited stockpile of ammo and limited manpower pool. Once initial stockpiles of both are gone, they will be very difficult to replace. As it was, once all that was gone OTL, Serbia got annihilated. Not only that, but they had the largest proportion of casualties suffered to their population than any other nation.
 
As I See it, our Best Bet would be to Let The ENTIRE Assassination Crisis of OTL be Butterflied Away ...

This is How I See The Time-Line going From there ...

  • Anti-Monarchical Factions Associated with The Bolshevik Movement Assassinate Tsar Nicholas II
  • Tsarevitch Alexis Attempts to Ascend The Throne, But is Blocked by Intra-Court Maneuvers
  • Eventually, One of these Factions Begins to Operate More Openly and Thus Raises a Private Army, In Order to Hold Members of The Populace Hostage as Bargaining Chips
  • Other Factions Start to Arm as Well, Ultimately this Leads to Bloodshed on The Streets of St. Petersberg, As Various Groups Struggle for Dominance
  • As The Fighting Spills Over into The Surrounding Countryside, Kaiser Wilhelm II Sees his Chance to Destabilize Russia
  • German Agents in Poland and Lithuania Conspire with Local Resistance Groups, Offering them Support if they Rise Against Forces Still Loyal to The Russian Throne
  • As these Groups Begin to Ambush Russian Troops, Exiled Communist Agitator Lenin is Transported to Warsaw and Told that Whatever he Does will have The Germans' Blessing
  • Traveling to Moscow, Lenin Urges his Supporters to Stand up to Imperial Authority, As German Agents Also Seek out Rebels in Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, and Even Belarus
  • With Russia Rotting Away, King-Emperor Franz Joseph I Sees an Opportunity Developing in Serbia; he Seizes this Chance by Hurling The Austro-Hungarian Army Across The Serbian Frontier, The Third Balkan War is on!
Thus we Find Ourselves Back at The OP, The Assassination of The Tsar has Led Inexorably Towards yet Another Balkan War!

:D
 
As I See it, our Best Bet would be to Let The ENTIRE Assassination Crisis of OTL be Butterflied Away ...

This is How I See The Time-Line going From there ...

  • Anti-Monarchical Factions Associated with The Bolshevik Movement Assassinate Tsar Nicholas II
  • Tsarevitch Alexis Attempts to Ascend The Throne, But is Blocked by Intra-Court Maneuvers
  • Eventually, One of these Factions Begins to Operate More Openly and Thus Raises a Private Army, In Order to Hold Members of The Populace Hostage as Bargaining Chips
  • Other Factions Start to Arm as Well, Ultimately this Leads to Bloodshed on The Streets of St. Petersberg, As Various Groups Struggle for Dominance
  • As The Fighting Spills Over into The Surrounding Countryside, Kaiser Wilhelm II Sees his Chance to Destabilize Russia
  • German Agents in Poland and Lithuania Conspire with Local Resistance Groups, Offering them Support if they Rise Against Forces Still Loyal to The Russian Throne
  • As these Groups Begin to Ambush Russian Troops, Exiled Communist Agitator Lenin is Transported to Warsaw and Told that Whatever he Does will have The Germans' Blessing
  • Traveling to Moscow, Lenin Urges his Supporters to Stand up to Imperial Authority, As German Agents Also Seek out Rebels in Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, and Even Belarus
  • With Russia Rotting Away, King-Emperor Franz Joseph I Sees an Opportunity Developing in Serbia; he Seizes this Chance by Hurling The Austro-Hungarian Army Across The Serbian Frontier, The Third Balkan War is on!
Thus we Find Ourselves Back at The OP, The Assassination of The Tsar has Led Inexorably Towards yet Another Balkan War!

:D
I don't know, I just think two assinations in one year is just to awesome to pass up.
 
[*]As The Fighting Spills Over into The Surrounding Countryside, Kaiser Wilhelm II Sees his Chance to Destabilize Russia

Doubt it. The Kaiser wasn't running the show in Berlin in 1914 and had been effectively marginalized by the Army and the Government.

What I find interesting is so much attention being lavished on both the Kaiser and the Tsar, when they were pretty much powerless in regards to the actions and wishes of their governments in July 1914. The government in St. Petersburg isn't going to ground to halt with the death of the tsar, so I would suspect that Vienna would get a strong word against any actions against Serbia. Russia's support of panslavism, as well as its humiliation by AH during the Bosnian Crisis, won't diminish support for Serbia.
 
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