No WWI, Irish Home Rule Act passes

POD is 1914. Does the exclusion agreement hold? Effects on UK politics? (This is "best case scenario" as opposed to my previous "worst case" thread from a few months ago)
 
So you mean the 1914 plan with the Ulster Opt out not the 1913 plan that would have led to a civil war?

It would have pulled the rug out from the Republicans as only the most radical would have kept pushing for full independance.
 
Redmond Triumphant

POD is 1914. Does the exclusion agreement hold? Effects on UK politics? (This is "best case scenario" as opposed to my previous "worst case" thread from a few months ago)

Redmond would be in the proverbial catbird seat up his death in 1918 (though it can be argued a broken heart contributed to his death so he might live longer). However Ulster is going to remain a problem. The partition was supposed to be only "temporary". I would see several extremist groups forming amongst the AngloIrish Protestants. One probably based in Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan to resist Rome Rule with another group in the other 6 counties determined to make the temporary exclusion (Carson who is a rather complex figure would definitely not support the former group and maybe not even the latter).

If the UK government looks like it is stalling about Ulster dissatisfaction will bloom amongst the Redmondites. Furthermore Redmond intended to incrementally push for greater degrees of autonymy and if this is denied it too can spawn dissatisfaction. So Dillon a less skilled politician would inherit a situation with growing tension.

In TTL Connolly who is remembered mostly as a nationalist in OTL would be remembered as a Communist agitator. Pearse might even end up being known mostly as an educational reformer.
 
Getting agreement on what areas to exclude is highly likely, the sticking point, as others have said, is the "temporary" issue. The Unionists wanted it to be permanent however such an arrangement was anathema to the Nationalists both for emotional reasons and for economic. Nationalists saw Ulster's industries as a cash cow that would help fund Home Rule, the Unionists realised this and were afraid of losing access to Imperial markets. So if a partition deal can be reached, unless there is some arrangement to allow Ulster to join later, which the Unionists would object to, then "The Ulster Question" is going to flare up again later, NI will certainly be better off without Stormont, but feelings well remain high, especially if Home Rule starts to evolve into something approaching independence.
 
A future Conservative government (especially one headed by Bonar Law) would obviously entrench Ulster's separation from the Home-rule South. Perhaps the ensuing instability causes a modest degree of voluntary population transfer as people flee violence and move in with relatives. Given its economic and Shipbuilding) strategic importance, I don't see Belfast falling under home rule in any event. Even if the bulk of Ulster was governed from Dublin, I suspect Belfast would emerge as a city state or similar.
 
Getting agreement on what areas to exclude is highly likely, the sticking point, as others have said, is the "temporary" issue. The Unionists wanted it to be permanent however such an arrangement was anathema to the Nationalists both for emotional reasons and for economic. Nationalists saw Ulster's industries as a cash cow that would help fund Home Rule, the Unionists realised this and were afraid of losing access to Imperial markets. So if a partition deal can be reached, unless there is some arrangement to allow Ulster to join later, which the Unionists would object to, then "The Ulster Question" is going to flare up again later, NI will certainly be better off without Stormont, but feelings well remain high, especially if Home Rule starts to evolve into something approaching independence.

Why would home rule mean a loss of markets though?
 
Why would home rule mean a loss of markets though?

Tariffs, the Unionists feared that once Home Rule was granted the Nationalists would keep pushing for more and more powers until eventually Ireland would go independent. Ulster's export markets were primarily in Britain and then the Empire so if Ireland erected tariff barriers at some later point Ulster would lose those markets. Of course the main reason for Unionist opposition was religious and political but there was also an economic one.
 
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