NO WW1 which empires survive? What about social progress?

Suppose the governments of the Great powers get scared in July 1914. Serbia makes embarrassing concessions and Austra/ Hungary decides it does not need a war.

How long will the Austrian, Ottoman and Russian empires survive?

What will happen to social progress for women and for ethnic minorities?

How bad would Ireland get?

(I write this believing that WW1 was the key cause of both Lenninism and and Hitler taking power both of which were catastrophic for humanity)
 

Thomas1195

Banned
How bad would Ireland get?
Quite nasty, sin many British officers refused to take action. But if the Government managed to remain in power and to cleanse the rank of the Tory-leaning officers and replace them with more loyal ones, then UVF would be suppressed quickly.

What will happen to social progress for women and for ethnic minorities?
Delayed significantly. In ww1, we saw women took the role of men in factories and offices, and hence their status were enhanced greatly since they became a much more important labour force following the war.

How long will the Austrian, Ottoman and Russian empires survive?
Depends on how they reform themselves.
 
Franz Ferdinand was an advocate of federalising the Austro-Hungarian Empires, which may have held off secessionist tendencies for a time: most nationalist movements at the time wanted devolution of power rather than outright independence.

The Ottoman Empire was already collapsing and I think that would've continued: they'd lost a series of smaller wars (Italian, Balkan), de facto lost a number of territories to British control (Egypt, Cyprus), and were contending with rising Arab nationalist sentiment. I think, even without a major WW1-size war, there would've been more conflict in the middle east and the Ottoman Empire would've lost yet more territories to either independent states or other Great Powers.

Russia I'm not sure of. They had quite serious internal problems with factions that were very willing to resort to violence to see their aims achieved. Probably a lot of internal troubles.
 
Austria should survive. Polish and Croat, Slovene minorities don't want independence just to end up in Russia or Italy. The German Austrians would always have German backing in a pinch if things got out of hand.

Ottomans might survive. Ottoman empire has to deal with Russia still which will be looking to take another slice of Armenia and the Russians will have a potent Black Sea fleet by about 1916. Has to hope that Britain and Germany will back it if Russians push too hard. However controlling Arabs will be easier with new railways. There is still all the Sunni/Shia divide in Iraq, Ottomans will still play the minorities off on each other (back the Minority over the Majority). Perhaps oil gets discovered in time to supply $$$.

Russia will survive. It took shock of world war to break her down OTL. Might reform a bit but will be more autocratic than others.

If peace holds. Yes, it will be a Christian, Euro-centric world, racial superiority theories won't be as discredited. Look for more white emigration to Africa, delayed decolonization, more Rhodesia like situations when it does happen.

Women's rights might end up being the same, perhaps delayed a bit, sure the wars put women in the work force, but wars can also delay focus on internal issues like that, and wars put focus on men, (we have to find jobs for all our returning veterans, bind their mental wounds etc.)
 
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