No WW1: Which empires are most viable?

Which Empire(s) has the best odds of making it to 1939?

  • Russian Empire

    Votes: 35 79.5%
  • Austro-Hungarian Empire

    Votes: 14 31.8%
  • Ottoman Empire

    Votes: 9 20.5%

  • Total voters
    44
World War 1 killed three major multi-ethnic empires: Austria-Hungary, Russia, and the Ottomans. Of the three, Russia did the best, and recovered much of its lost non-Russian territory in the next war. Suppose, however, that there is no World War 1. How do these empires fare? Which is best positioned to make it, intact, to, say 1939 (I figure the historical start of WW2 is a nice arbitrary date, and its a quarter century after the start of WW1)?

Each has their own unique strengths and weaknesses, of course. Don't be afraid to take into consideration foreign intervention, as well. Just no World War. Just as one example (with no commentary on its likelihood), perhaps the other powers decide to carve up the Ottomans when they realize how much oil there is in the middle east.
 
Russia was industrializing better than either of them, and honestly the only way to bring down russia is generally with Russia itself. It has too much land to tactically invade successfully, at least in a total war. The ottomans were failing by a corrupt military, and Austria-Hungary simply didn't have the internal cohesion or legislative power. The adriatic coast getting a crown could've slowed it but i don't think it could last to the 30s with much more than austria and hungary.
 
Best odds would be the Ottomans. Without a world war there is no consensus on breaking it up, the oil was already agreed to be divided, the CUP likely holds power but does not do anything truly stupid, discontent at the perceived Turkification is not quite enough, in time the non-Turk population will overcome the imbalance.

Russia will face some revolution as the reigning monarch and elites are not reforming fast enough. Ethnic divides are real and the whole Empire is a house of cards. Of the three Russia has the worst odds because it has the least flexible or competent leadership.

A-H is far better off and should survive just fine but compared to the OE it has just more challenges to effectively represent such a diverse population, FF does not look like he will solve it, and the Serbs will be lurking in the shadows to destabilize things through terrorism.

But I give all three better than not to endure past 1939. Without a major war all might just muddle through.
 
No WWI? All of them, 100% chance. I don't think many people appreciate just how much of an extreme stress test WWI actually was for the states of the world, or how much fighting total wars on 2-4 fronts while under blockade differed from business as usual.
 
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