1914 is a perfect storm, even if you simply have FF drive past his assassin, you have the Ottomans taking delivery of warship the Greeks planned to intercept. The Great Powers need to avoid falling into a war but if they do, from 1915 on the gears begin to turn. First the UK general election likely sifts power to the Conservatives and Irish Home Rule becomes a messy domestic distraction. Russia is still rising, her Army will be soon strong enough appearing top deter Germany and her Navy will be next, renewing the threat to Britain. French politics will shift left and the socialists will pursue rapprochement and the bulk of French foreign investment is in Russia, an autocratic regime at odds with Republican ideals, and Germany will be likewise shifting left, the SDP will gain a majority and force reforms in coalition with the other liberal minded parties. Russia herself will face revolution if reforms do not come. And we assume FF can hold the Empire together once he gains the throne. As 1919 looms each great state faces domestic issues that can lead to foreign adventurers or will alter the policy, politics and visions of each, spinning them off from the tracks they were on.
If we see all this keeping us away from another big war and nothing pushing us into one, maybe lesser wars bleed off the pressure or inner collapses wreck the alliances and leave us unbalanced enough no one bothers, then overall it is on track to just carry on. I will argue the 20th century is a German century, not because they are the richest, biggest or omnipotent, but because they continue disrupting the balance and realigning the settled ways forward, just as the USA did post WW2, Germany is an industrial power depending upon importing materials and exporting goods, the world must be is market place and its incentive will be to break into markets as both buyer and seller. And I would add that the century will be just as dependent upon events in Russia, whatever happens in Russia will be a huge impact on this time. Russia will either evolve into the peer power or implode and warp into something else. The British Empire will slowly fade and crumble, its core ideals from British thought is at odds with the reality of imperial rule and the common British citizen will likely no longer sacrifice to maintain rule over distant peoples. But this will still be an imperial century, Europe will rule much of the world right through into modern day, plenty of "peace keeping" and freedom fighting to destroy and change things. My opinion is that the Germans will "best" run their Empire, it is smaller and to make it of value they need to build it, investing and developing it further than any other power has incentive to. I believe the French continue to underinvest and so do the British, but the British do a better job at instilling local administration that can perform better when "independence" arrives. Germany will be seeking ways to hasten the collapse of other empire's hold, not the same as championing independence but the USA might, especially if protectionism begins.
China should remain effectively divided and weak, exploited as each power seeks advantages that have nothing to do with helping China. We might see a more de facto warlord like paradigm as each power backs the local governors to expand regional rule, weaken the central hold, developing what is needed to access mineral wealth and facilitate trade. The great cities of China feeling more like HK, foreign run, Chinese at heart, truly exotic outposts of predatory capitalism. Germany will butt heads with the UK in China, the USA will but heads with everyone, Germany will butt heads with the USA in South America as well as the British, Russia will butt heads with Britain in Persia, Japan in Manchuria, etc., etc., etc. Mercantilism will force diplomacy, and we should see the Ottomans rise up as the world shifts to oil, but chained by debts, deals and outside influencers. Russia will become a serious player in oil, more so if it gains the Manchurian oil, Britain stays a player with Persian and Ottoman oil in its stead, also the DEI and then Canada and North Sea, Germany is the only great power, aside from Japan who has no real oil. It might be curious how warfare responds to getting or keeping oil, akin to the 20th century often seen as wars about oil. France and Italy will be aggressive in exploiting oil in Algeria and Libya, perhaps that indeed becomes modern colonialism. A united Islamic OE with control over so much of the most vital commodity? An interesting page to write upon.
A golden age for airships from the 1920s through 1940s until heavier than air aircraft develop, much of it driven by commercial needs rather than military advances, does Germany leverage its Zeppelin to an aerospace dominance? Does its military pursue rocketry or electronics to give them another corner? Do they pursue nuclear power given the relative lack of oil? Of all the powers they need science more to stay wealthy and strong. Thus my idea that it is a German century, German industry must develop if Germany is to avoid doom, it will have a super power Russia on one side and a global Empire on the other, France may fall away as a real threat but the USA is still an economic giant and competitor, Japan may leverage its connection with Britain to continue developing, retaining Korea and Formosa, it might become a true peer in the top 5. So Russia, Britain/Empire, Germany/Europe, USA and Empire of Japan are the poles. This will be an unbalanced multi-polar world, some alliances may endure, Germany plus A-H, UK plus Japan, the British Empire more coherent as a trade bloc and defense alliance, Russia and the USA strong enough to go it alone and against any, no return for China, little independence for Africa, a wealthy Islamic state with reason to distrust and dislike Europe, re-alignments possible, France to Germany, South America too, Japan going it alone, the USA differently partnered to the UK or Germany or Japan? I would say the world without a Great War is dangerous, different and interesting, equal parts familiar, unfamiliar, golden past remnants and new advances unexpected, a bit like how one sees Steampunk keep the past and bleed it with the future. I would argue that it should be open to so many butterflies that it looks more unlike what we expect than what we know from OTL can guide us. 100 years from 1914 to 2014 is a long dimly lit path with curves, highs and lows, a path as much what occurred in the 100 years prior as unreal compared to our own 100 years.