No wrong turn

Franz Ferdinand is not killed in sareavo as his driver is given a proper briefing and takes him straight to the hospital. So the wrong turn doesn't happen and the assassin has no opportunity to fire the killing shot. What happens next? There has been one attempt on his life already today is this still used as an excuse for war or is it just a severe diplomatic incident. Would Germany still give unconditional support to Austria or just moral? If there is no war would Greece and the ottoman empire have come to blows in the 3rd Balkan war? Your educated opinions please.
 
The big difference is Franz Ferdinand is still alive and can stop things from getting out of hand. I can't imagine there still being the international outrage to allow Austria to present an ultimatum with terms like they did. The real event sort of barely registered in world public opinion and was forgotten until it welled up again a few weeks later. Remove point #5 from the ultimatum and no war, maybe for a long time.

(1) To suppress any publication which incites to hatred and contempt of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy and the general tendency of which is directed against its territorial integrity;

(2) To dissolve immediately the society styled "Narodna Odbrana," to confiscate all its means of propaganda, and to proceed in the same manner against other societies and their branches in Serbia which engage in propaganda against the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy. The Royal Government shall take the necessary measures to prevent the societies dissolved from continuing their activity under another name and form;

(3) To eliminate without delay from public instruction in Serbia, both as regards the teaching body and also as regards the methods of instruction, everything that serves, or might serve, to foment the propaganda against Austria-Hungary;

(4) To remove from the military service, and from the administration in general, all officers and functionaries guilty of propaganda against the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy whose names and deeds the Austro-Hungarian Government reserve to themselves the right of communicating to the Royal Government;

(5) To accept the collaboration in Serbia of representatives of the Austro-Hungarian Government for the suppression of the subversive movement directed against the territorial integrity of the Monarchy;

(6) To take judicial proceedings against accessories to the plot of the 28th of June who are on Serbian territory; delegates of the Austro-Hungarian Government will take part in the investigation relating thereto;

(7) To proceed without delay to the arrest of Major Voija Tankositch and of the individual named Milan Ciganovitch, a Serbian State employee, who have been compromised by the results of the magisterial inquiry at Serajevo;

(8) To prevent by effective measures the cooperation of the Serbian authorities in the illicit traffic in arms and explosives across the frontier, to dismiss and punish severely the officials of the frontier service at Shabatz Loznica guilty of having assisted the perpetrators of the Serajevo crime by facilitating their passage across the frontier;

(9) To furnish the Imperial and Royal Government with explanations regarding the unjustifiable utterances of high Serbian officials, both in Serbia and abroad, who, notwithstanding their official position, have not hesitated since the crime of the 28th of June to express themselves in interviews in terms of hostility to the Austro-Hungarian Government; and, finally,

(10) To notify the Imperial and Royal Government without delay of the execution of the measures comprised under the preceding heads.
The Austro-Hungarian Government expect the reply of the Royal Government at the latest by 5 o'clock on Saturday evening the 25th of July. (See Note 1)
 
Last edited:

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
The big difference is Franz Ferdinand is still alive. If shorts are still fired but miss I can't imagine there still being the international outrage to allow Austria to present an ultimatum with terms like they did.

No war and maybe no war for a long time if ever.

He's going to still be miffed about he other attempts on his life- after all, during the meeting he was attending, he expressed irritant/distraught to the Mayor over this fact. Simple is that Austria won't go to war with Serbia, but will raise this concern on an international level- if this can lead to a war is something another person with more knowledge will have to decide.
 

Deleted member 1487

There would be no war, FF understood what war would mean and he was the peacenik in the establishment of A-H. 1914 goes by with some hiccups, but no war; later when he assumes the throne maybe there would be war stemming from his problems with the Magyar nobility, but who knows.
 

abc123

Banned
There would be no war, FF understood what war would mean and he was the peacenik in the establishment of A-H. 1914 goes by with some hiccups, but no war; later when he assumes the throne maybe there would be war stemming from his problems with the Magyar nobility, but who knows.

Agreed...;)
 
to cite Babylon 5: No Boom today...Boom tomorrow.

i'm not particulary optimistic that after that crisis there will not be another that will cause the big war.
 
I know he was a much more accommodating person regarding the peoples in the empire but how would his outlook be changed by the attack on not just himself but his wife also? Who wouldn't want to lash out after that and would she have been able to temper this urge as she managed to when they were with the mayor?
 
Top