anamarvelo
Banned
if the us stays out of the war, then by the end of 1916/early '17 the entente can't get loans in the us anymore (because they have no more security to put up).
So far less money to keep fighting, at that point i see a negotiated peace happening or a collapse of france. So i see a CP win, or at least a CP win on point (Meaning CP gains more than entente)
It all depends what happens to france, after all we shouldn't forget that WW1 was more or less a result of the Franco-Prussian war, if france is allowed back on its feet (like germany otl) there is no doubt there will be another war, and this time france will be the attacker. A big difference with otl will be the east as the CP will keep their gains there, and considering the early stagnation in the west, Brest-Litovsk may turn out harsher or rather different.
The whole situation will leave the CP in a much better economic state than the entente, even if france wouldn't pay repairs. the entente had a lot of external debt (mainly to us), while the CP was internal debt, and a lower one at that.
the biggest possibility in my view has the negotiated peace, somewhere in 1917 in this scenario, war in the east might go on for a bit, but probably ends earlier than otl, and might influence how the russian revolution proceeds.
Another massive butterfly of this all is very likely no spanish flu as we know it.
this is such a huge gamechanger that after that everything is possible because it means 5% of the worldpopulation not dying of it (50-100M people).
germany had planed to screw over france at the end of the war
so they would just be a reset button on the Franco-prussian war
the french would lose territroy and be in economic ruins
they would just have to rebuild and most lickly be taken over by a far right ditator like hitler
in the end france will go to war again with Germany
at that points it anyone guess who would win