No Winter War

What if there was no Winter War in 1939? The two things I can think of is that everyone would think they were tougher than they were but the Russians would be weaker than OTL as they wouldn't have learned the lessons they did in the Winter War. OTOH they do have the men and tanks they lost in that war. I think the Nazis still invade but do somewhat better. They may even take Leningrad but not Moscow or Stalingrad, I don't think.
 
Without the very poor initial Soviet performance in Finland, I doubt that the Germans would have invaded the Soviet Union in quite the same way if they did it at all. That poor performance played to Hitler's prejudices and led to unrealistic expectations in terms of ease of taking down the Soviets. I suspect that in the absence of that war, the Germans and Soviets would have remained in quasi-alliance for somewhat longer.

Other impacts: (1)Finland would not participate in any German invasion of the USSR, thus releasing substantial Soviet forces for other fronts. (2) Finland would not be a potential pretext for the Allies to get involved in Norway, which might abort the German invasion there to the extent it was a reaction to Allied moves toward Norway. (3) Ironically, Italy would be considerably stronger in the early going of World War II. Long train of consequences here: (a) The Italians sent quite a bit of reasonably modern war material to the Finns, especially some modern (by Italian standards) warplanes. That material could have been useful in North Africa/Greece later. (b) As a result of those shipments to Finland, the Soviets cut off oil shipments to the Italian navy, which meant that the Italians started World War II with considerably less oil for their battleships than they needed. Those battleships spent a good hunk of the war in port after mid-1941 simply because the Italians didn't have the oil to fuel them. (4) Without the disastrous showing in the Winter War, the Soviets might not have felt the need to appease the Germans to the same extent that they did. Advantages to the Soviets: they would probably ship the Germans less oil and grain that would later be used against them. They would probably be more willing to risk war by going on the alert if it looked like a German invasion was imminent. Disadvantages: A more self-confident Soviet military would be less aware of deficiencies and thus less reformed. They would have less combat experience. They might be more willing to get into other adventures like attacking Turkey or Iran. They might even try a preemptive strike against the Germans, which would be a fiasco in all likelihood.
 
Without the very poor initial Soviet performance in Finland, I doubt that the Germans would have invaded the Soviet Union in quite the same way if they did it at all. That poor performance played to Hitler's prejudices and led to unrealistic expectations in terms of ease of taking down the Soviets. I suspect that in the absence of that war, the Germans and Soviets would have remained in quasi-alliance for somewhat longer.

Other impacts: (1)Finland would not participate in any German invasion of the USSR, thus releasing substantial Soviet forces for other fronts. (2) Finland would not be a potential pretext for the Allies to get involved in Norway, which might abort the German invasion there to the extent it was a reaction to Allied moves toward Norway. (3) Ironically, Italy would be considerably stronger in the early going of World War II. Long train of consequences here: (a) The Italians sent quite a bit of reasonably modern war material to the Finns, especially some modern (by Italian standards) warplanes. That material could have been useful in North Africa/Greece later. (b) As a result of those shipments to Finland, the Soviets cut off oil shipments to the Italian navy, which meant that the Italians started World War II with considerably less oil for their battleships than they needed. Those battleships spent a good hunk of the war in port after mid-1941 simply because the Italians didn't have the oil to fuel them. (4) Without the disastrous showing in the Winter War, the Soviets might not have felt the need to appease the Germans to the same extent that they did. Advantages to the Soviets: they would probably ship the Germans less oil and grain that would later be used against them. They would probably be more willing to risk war by going on the alert if it looked like a German invasion was imminent. Disadvantages: A more self-confident Soviet military would be less aware of deficiencies and thus less reformed. They would have less combat experience. They might be more willing to get into other adventures like attacking Turkey or Iran. They might even try a preemptive strike against the Germans, which would be a fiasco in all likelihood.


I think Hitler will eventually order the invasion of the USSR. One of his main goals stated in Mein Kampf is the addition of new lands for Germany in the east. There might be some changes in the invasion plans but I doubt it. Remember it went off real well at first.

I agree that the Finns won't help invade Russia. They only wanted to take back the land the Soviets took in the Winter War. This will free up troops for the Soviets. You are also correct that Norway may not happen which will strengthen the Kriegsmarine. You also may well be right that they will be less willing to try and appease the Germans making sure they don't ship anything without getting paid first. I don't think the Italians matter much one way or another. They might delay the Brits a month or two more in Africa but not much more than that, they are simply too inept.
 
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