No Winter War: Impacts on Norway and Sweden

I'm curious as to the impacts of no Winter War on the Allied and Nazi planning for Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

OTL the Allies had plans to invade Narvik under the pretence of aiding Finland and then marching into Kiruna to seize the Swedish iron supplies. Securing the excellent steel for Allied use and more importantly depriving it from the Allies.

Neither Sweden nor Norway were up for allowing allied movement for Finland so I doubt they'd be okay for the neutrality.

Alternatively the Allies do nothing and Scandinavia doesn't become involved?

If the Allies do decide to invade Norway and Kiruna what happens next? German invasion of Denmark and then into Sweden and Norway? With no surprise a real front would develop, how would that impact the rest of the war?

Edit:

The Allied effort, meanwhile, had moved slowly, and the Finnish Army, under the weight of massive Soviet offensives which had begun in February, had reached the limits of its endurance. The British held back two divisions from France, intending to put them into the field in Norway, and planned to expand their force eventually to 100,000 men. The French intended to commit about 50,000. [37] The British and French staffs agreed that the latter half of March would be the best time for going into Norway; but, aside from the desire to exploit the situation created by the Russo-Finnish conflict, they saw no compelling reason to act quickly since they were convinced that the important Trondheim-Narvik area was beyond the Germans' reach and could be taken at any time. Allied plans, furthermore, remained contingent on the Norwegian and Swedish Governments' granting rights of transit to Allied troops. They had turned down a request by Finland to that effect on 27 February, and another by the British and French Governments on 3 March. By that time Finland had decided to sue for peace. On 9 March the Allied governments told the Finnish Ministers in Paris and London that if a request was made the Allies would come to the aid of Finland with all possible speed. The French went so far as to urge that such a request be made. They promised delivery of a hundred bombers within two weeks, but left the dispatch of troops still dependent on the attitude of Norway and Sweden. On the same day, Marshal Mannerheim, who regarded the Allied proposal as too uncertain, gave his government categorical advice to conclude peace. [38]

At the last minute, on 12 March, still hoping for an appeal from the Finns, the Allies decided, at the suggestion of the French, to attempt a semipeaceable invasion of Scandinavia. Assuming that the recent diplomatic responses of the Norwegian and Swedish Governments ran counter to public opinion in those countries, they proposed to "test on the Norwegian beaches the firmness of the opposition." A landing was to be made at Narvik; if it succeeded, it would be followed by one at Trondheim. Forces for Bergen and Stavanger were to be held ready. The objectives were to take Narvik, the railroad, and the Swedish ore fields; but the landing and the advance into Norway and Sweden were to take place only if they could be accomplished without serious fighting. The troops were not to fight their way through either Norway or Sweden and were to use force only "as an ultimate measure of self-defense." [39]
 
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I am assuming the Altmark incident still happens, and that the Allies are going still still restrict German shipments of iron ore out of Narvik. So I am assuming the Germans will still be tempted to invade.

I think the Allies would be content with laying mines, infringing on territorial waters etc., without invading. and once the Germans occupy the iron fields of France there is no reason to really push things that far.

Regardless,
No German invasion of Scandinavia, means a lot of Germans freed up from occupation duty, many Germans warships still afloat and many JU52s saved. Lots of butterflies.

If the Allies invade Sweeden through Norway anyway, lots of diplomatic penalties for the Allies, the Germans certainly can expel the Allies from the area.
 

Deleted member 1487

I am assuming the Altmark incident still happens, and that the Allies are going still still restrict German shipments of iron ore out of Narvik. So I am assuming the Germans will still be tempted to invade.

I think the Allies would be content with laying mines, infringing on territorial waters etc., without invading. and once the Germans occupy the iron fields of France there is no reason to really push things that far.

Regardless,
No German invasion of Scandinavia, means a lot of Germans freed up from occupation duty, many Germans warships still afloat and many JU52s saved. Lots of butterflies.

If the Allies invade Sweeden through Norway anyway, lots of diplomatic penalties for the Allies, the Germans certainly can expel the Allies from the area.
But what happens with their access to Norwegian rare metals like Molybdenum for which Norway was their only significant supply?
Also would the Norwegian merchant fleet be available to the Allies without an invasion?
 
I am assuming the Altmark incident still happens, and that the Allies are going still still restrict German shipments of iron ore out of Narvik. So I am assuming the Germans will still be tempted to invade.

I think the Allies would be content with laying mines, infringing on territorial waters etc., without invading. and once the Germans occupy the iron fields of France there is no reason to really push things that far.

Regardless,
No German invasion of Scandinavia, means a lot of Germans freed up from occupation duty, many Germans warships still afloat and many JU52s saved. Lots of butterflies.

If the Allies invade Sweeden through Norway anyway, lots of diplomatic penalties for the Allies, the Germans certainly can expel the Allies from the area.

How severe would Allied violation of Norwegian neutrality have to be to hamper trade between Norway and Germany? OTL the mining didn't prompt the Germans to invade, the decision was made prior to that but post Altmark. However the Allies had been very overt with their prior attempts to convince Finland to request aid and Norway and Sweden to allow it through.

Presuming Altmark happens, no reason why something similar wouldn't, would that be enough for Hitler on its own?

If it isn't, and therefore presumably the trade is not stymied that much (especially since much can go through Sweden's own ports which are untouchable), then the Allies decide that they have to do something more severe, perhaps to distract Germany from France. If they did give that invasion of Narvik and Kiruna the go ahead what would Sweden and Norway do? Would they have armed resistance? Would they accept Axis offers to defend them (which if rejected would definitely be followed by invasion)? Or would they just accept it and join the Allies? What would the USA reaction be?

The British authorities had long been pressing for this operation [mining the rhine] (which the French opposed as being likely to provoke German air attacks) and we believed that its novelty and boldness might distract American attention from the possible illegality of our intended action off the Norwegian coast.
 
But what happens with their access to Norwegian rare metals like Molybdenum for which Norway was their only significant supply?
Also would the Norwegian merchant fleet be available to the Allies without an invasion?

You would think that since it was already an export business, Swedish owned company in Norway, they would continue to export the Molybdenum, the British would try to buy it all up eventually, like they did historically. Of course when France falls, Norway would be under lots of German pressure.

Interesting Finland was a source also, but the Winter war wrecked the mining area, but wouldn't be a problem in this TL.

https://histdoc.net/history/NaSo1940-03-28.html
 
Presuming Altmark happens, no reason why something similar wouldn't, would that be enough for Hitler on its own?

If it isn't, and therefore presumably the trade is not stymied that much (especially since much can go through Sweden's own ports which are untouchable), then the Allies decide that they have to do something more severe, perhaps to distract Germany from France. If they did give that invasion of Narvik and Kiruna the go ahead what would Sweden and Norway do? Would they have armed resistance? Would they accept Axis offers to defend them (which if rejected would definitely be followed by invasion)? Or would they just accept it and join the Allies? What would the USA reaction be?

I think a lot of the decision was that Reader was for it, Hitler thought it would be a bold move to try, the idleness elsewhere focused attention on the region, and so incidents got attention they probably wouldn't have normally, Hitler can make this a go or no go relatively easy with his decision, so its within the real of possibility to no go (perhaps the lack of a Winter war is enough to divert his attention from here).

There would be armed resistance, limited from Norway, more from Sweden. I would think it would be hard for the Allies to do, to attack up the railway, in difficult terrain and limited communications. You could surprise Norway but the Swedes would be ready. So I think the Swedes could resist without asking for help.

The Germans would certainly invade Denmark and Norway in response. Sweden has a good army I can't see the Germans invading as long as the iron ore is working.
 
I think a lot of the decision was that Reader was for it, Hitler thought it would be a bold move to try, the idleness elsewhere focused attention on the region, and so incidents got attention they probably wouldn't have normally, Hitler can make this a go or no go relatively easy with his decision, so its within the real of possibility to no go (perhaps the lack of a Winter war is enough to divert his attention from here).

There would be armed resistance, limited from Norway, more from Sweden. I would think it would be hard for the Allies to do, to attack up the railway, in difficult terrain and limited communications. You could surprise Norway but the Swedes would be ready. So I think the Swedes could resist without asking for help.

The Germans would certainly invade Denmark and Norway in response. Sweden has a good army I can't see the Germans invading as long as the iron ore is working.

So Norway doesn't resist allied invasion of narvik? But after a brief shoot out on the Swedish border allies stop without getting to Kiruna.

Will this make Sweden join the axis? Will Germany pressure Sweden to allow troops in to reinforce kiruna?

How will German invasion work differently without surprise?
 
The iron ore have to debark from Narvik we've been through this many times - the Ore Railway went that way not untill later to Umeå on the Botnian shore which anyway would be closed by ice during winter making movement of ore even more difficult if the Allies sits in Narvik.
Without a Winter War there is no justification for invasion - blocking the Westfjord or laying minefields or Naval operations to stop it, yes.
Would the Norwegians defend the port - difficult question. OTL the local regimental commander surrendered his troops and depot to the German invaders. ITTL he may decide to order his troops to shoot at the British though I think he would end up being ignored or possibly bumped off. Should the British shoot at the Norwegian troops its a whole different ballgame - the Germans had lots troubles with the Norwegians who became expert Moutain Warfare Troops in a short time being subjected to a steep learning curve. It will be difficult to reach even the Swedish border and then go through "the Tunnel".
It was Norwegians, French Foreign Legion and Poles who kicked ass at Narvik. Not the British - not the French regulars.

Hitler didn't seem to be too interested in going to Norway; the Kriegsmarine wanted bases on the Norwegian coast and take Denmark as the side dish or at least Jutland. Only when Hitler became convinced the Allies were off to Norway did he order plans drawn up and executed.
As long as Germany gets its iron ore why use resources on a side show both Army and Luftwaffe was strongly against! Should the Allies manage to buy all the ore or block the traffic effectively would be another story.
 
I think that an important question here is how exactly was Winter War averted ITTL? Did the Finns accept the Soviet demands, or some of them? Or was it for some other reason?

The reason(s) the war was avoided would already create some knock-on effects and butterflies, so for setting up the exact scenario for the Nordic area since late 1939 it would be important to know what events replaced the Winter War here.


Interesting Finland was a source also, but the Winter war wrecked the mining area, but wouldn't be a problem in this TL.

https://histdoc.net/history/NaSo1940-03-28.html

I don't think that the Mätäsvaara mine in Lieksa was actually wrecked at all. The Red Army never reached the mine during the war, and it is said that the few bombs the Soviet bombers dropped in the area didn't hit anything of value. The mine's structures were still not completed before the Winter War started, and the war stopped the construction work. After the war, in the spring of 1940, construction was resumed, and mining started as soon as in August 1940. I think that the German representative quoted there might have been somewhat misinformed about the situation at the mine.

Without the Winter War, the molybdenum mine would start production in the spring or summer of 1940, a bit earlier than IOTL.
 
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Deleted member 1487

I don't think that the Mätäsvaara mine in Lieksa was actually wrecked at all. The Red Army never reached the mine during the war, and it is said that the few bombs the Soviet bombers dropped in the area didn't hit anything of value. The mine's structures were still not completed before the Winter War started, and the war stopped the construction work. After the war, in the spring of 1940, construction was resumed, and mining started as soon as in August 1940. I think that the German representative quoted there might have been somewhat misinformed about the situation at the mine.
It says the refinery in the report:
2. Molybdenum. Herr Ludwig stated that the molybdenum deposits were still in the possession of the Finns. Herr Kreutzwald pointed out, however, that the plants in the immediate vicinity of the combat area have suffered considerably from the military actions. Herr Ludwig stated that Germany had already been assured of the molybdenum production, too, by firm agreements.
 
It says the refinery in the report:

It is not at all sure to which "plants in the immediate vicinity of the combat area" Herr Kreutzwald is pointing to. AFAIK, the Red Army's closest positions during the war were c. 25 km away from the mine area. No article/story I have found about the mine so far mentions Winter War era damage to the mining operation in Lieksa, it is only said that the war caused the construction of the facilities to be stopped. The refinery was in the immediate mine area.
 
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