No Wilson in 1912 election

Wendell

An even more isolationist US President may keep America out of WWI and would cause a lot of butterflies but why would you think it would stop the Lusitania sinking?

It would depend on the butterflies but difficult to see Germany and it's allies hanging on til December 18 as it was so much on the rocks anyway. The western powers would have to re-allocate resources and make do with less equipment due to that but would still be massively superior to their opponents unless they fouled up even more than OTL. Manpower may well be a problem without the US but if they so decide there is a lot of slack the allies can pull up.

Steve

The Lusitania was believed to be running guns and supplies to the Entente. If the United States is completely out of the war, then there will be less of a motivation for the Germans to sink transatlantic civilian vessels.
 
The Lusitania was believed to be running guns and supplies to the Entente.

Hardly relevant, given that by their own admission, the Captain and crew of U-20 learned the identity of the ship only after firing their torpedo, so had no possible way of knowing what it carried.

If the United States is completely out of the war, then there will be less of a motivation for the Germans to sink transatlantic civilian vessels.

Possible, but far from certain. Prewar, GB and France were America's biggest trading partners. No administration is likely to cut off trade with them, and to do so would cause an economic recession liable to cost the President his re-election. Even if actual ammunition isn't sold, the Allies will probably increase their purchases of other goods, thus releasing workers at home for munitions manufacture.

OTOH, a re-elected President Clark might have imposed tighter restrictions in reprisal for British blacklists or interference with US mails. It is also possible that his term would have been extended to six years by constitutional amendment [1], in which case he has no re-election to worry about, hence enjoys greater freedom of action.

[1] An amendment to that effect passed the Senate in Feb 1913, but got no further due to the intervention of President-elect Wilson. Clark was on record in support of such a change, so would not have done this. Problem is, though, that since the HoR never got to consider the amendment, we do not know what its final form would have been. It might have been made inapplicable to a President already elected, or operative only from 1920. Or the House version might have been rejected by the Senate (which only passed it the first time by a bare 47-23) so that it never became law at all.
 
Hardly relevant, given that by their own admission, the Captain and crew of U-20 learned the identity of the ship only after firing their torpedo, so had no possible way of knowing what it carried.

You'd have a point if no civilian ship was running guns with the knowledge of the U.S. government. But, as long as some were, all ships were at risk.
 
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