No Weapons Shipments from Czechoslovakia: Impact on 1948 War?

What would a lack of Czech weapons mean for Israel in the 1948 war?


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IOTL, the Jewish Agency (and later the state of Israel) made extensive purchases of weapons and ammunition ahead of, and during the 1948 war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_shipments_from_Czechoslovakia_to_Israel_1947–49

If, for whatever reason, the Czechoslovakians were unwilling to sell, how would this impact Israel's ability to prosecute the 1948 war? Could it result in a smaller Israel, or a total Israeli defeat? (and if the former, would this smaller Israel be in any position to resist the Arab states in a future war)
 

Deleted member 1487

Other companies would fill, as someone would take the money they were offering for arms
Like who? And how much more would they charge?

If, for whatever reason, the Czechoslovakians were unwilling to sell, how would this impact Israel's ability to prosecute the 1948 war? Could it result in a smaller Israel, or a total Israeli defeat? (and if the former, would this smaller Israel be in any position to resist the Arab states in a future war)
Assuming they couldn't find a different seller they are in serious trouble. Probably would be too if they are able to find a seller, but one who charges a lot more and takes longer to fill the order due to being far away (thinking the USA).
I total defeat could well be in the cards and best case scenario they are probably limited in what they could carve out for themselves, which means issues for them post-war if they aren't able to handle the influx of Jewish refugees and still have a substantial Palestinian population.
 

Dave Shoup

Banned
IOTL, the Jewish Agency (and later the state of Israel) made extensive purchases of weapons and ammunition ahead of, and during the 1948 war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_shipments_from_Czechoslovakia_to_Israel_1947–49

If, for whatever reason, the Czechoslovakians were unwilling to sell, how would this impact Israel's ability to prosecute the 1948 war? Could it result in a smaller Israel, or a total Israeli defeat? (and if the former, would this smaller Israel be in any position to resist the Arab states in a future war)

The sales were commercial, and there were a lot of a) arms floating around Europe in 1946-48; b) national governments trying to unload material that was sitting in various warehouses for cash; and c) cash the proto-Israeli government could put its hands on.

If the Czechs had said no, there were the Greeks, Yugoslavs, Italians, French, Spanish, Belgians, Dutch, Poles, etc.

As it was, the belligerents in the 1948 war used everything they could put their hands on; not hard to imagine the Soviets getting rid of as much the German, Austrian, etc. manufactured equipment they'd captured in 1941-45 for cash, either.
 

Deleted member 1487

The sales were commercial, and there were a lot of a) arms floating around Europe in 1946-48; b) national governments trying to unload material that was sitting in various warehouses for cash; and c) cash the proto-Israeli government could put its hands on.

If the Czechs had said no, there were the Greeks, Yugoslavs, Italians, French, Spanish, Belgians, Dutch, Poles, etc.

As it was, the belligerents in the 1948 war used everything they could put their hands on; not hard to imagine the Soviets getting rid of as much the German, Austrian, etc. manufactured equipment they'd captured in 1941-45 for cash, either.
Probably not with those examples, because those nations needed to reestablish their militaries and keep a stockpile in case of another war. The French were actually using all the German late war stuff, most infamously the Panther tank with all the complaints they had about that. Even the Spanish were still using all their German leftovers from the SCW into the 1950s. The big owners of the stockpiles were the major Allied powers, the USA, Britain, and USSR, none of which were interested in guerrilla groups getting a bunch of arms. The USSR maybe, but Stalin had soured on the Jews at home by 1948, though still taking a favorable policy toward Israel.
Plus all the captured stuff was valuable as scrap and repurposed as other equipment, like using tanks as tractors or plows, which the Allies were pretty interested in IOTL.
If not a nation though there was still the blackmarket and smuggling, so it wasn't like they'd be totally cut off.
 

Dave Shoup

Banned
Probably not with those examples, because those nations needed to reestablish their militaries and keep a stockpile in case of another war. The French were actually using all the German late war stuff, most infamously the Panther tank with all the complaints they had about that. Even the Spanish were still using all their German leftovers from the SCW into the 1950s. The big owners of the stockpiles were the major Allied powers, the USA, Britain, and USSR, none of which were interested in guerrilla groups getting a bunch of arms. The USSR maybe, but Stalin had soured on the Jews at home by 1948, though still taking a favorable policy toward Israel.
Plus all the captured stuff was valuable as scrap and repurposed as other equipment, like using tanks as tractors or plows, which the Allies were pretty interested in IOTL.
If not a nation though there was still the blackmarket and smuggling, so it wasn't like they'd be totally cut off.

All the major and minor nation states had equipment they'd captured they didn't want to store, for one reason or another; from Axis material they'd captured to pre-war or wartime-supplied weapons that were zombie calibers or simply didn't fit with the supply chains they had in hand postwar. The ex-British equipment the French had in 1946, at a point where their policy was US standard and French manufacture, for example. The Greeks ended up with captured Italian and German material in 1945, along with the British standard equipment that flowed into Greece in 1946-47 and the US standard material that started in 1947-48. Same with the Yugoslavs, where end user certificates were fiction, as long as there was cash to be had. The Soviets, of course, had plenty of ex-German, Italian, Austrian, Czech, etc. weapons to dispose of in the late 1940s, and if a direct sale from the USSR was undesired, they had a half dozen satellites that could flush obsolescent material and get it replaced with Soviet standards. Most of the Latin American nations had prewar commercial gear they could replace with US standard equipment, either from L-L in WW 2 or MDAP after the Rio Treaty.

And failing a nation state eager to empty out the back of the warehouses, there were plenty of individuals like Robert Turp, Sam Cummings, and Gerhard Mertins (or their predecessors, like Bannerman).
 
The Czech arms deal started before the Communists gained complete power in Czechoslovakia in February 1948. And its motive (even after the take-over) was not a conspiracy by Stalin to help Israel--it was strictly commercial from the Czechoslovak government's viewpoint. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_shipments_from_Czechoslovakia_to_Israel_1947–49 Still, Stalin could have stopped the sales if he wanted to (even before February--after all, the Communist Gottwald was Prime Minister and the pro-Communist Svoboda Minister of Defense).

So if the Czechs weren't willing, is there some other east-central European country that could fill the void (again with Stalin at least not standing in the way)?

Of course one could imagine a situation where Stalin was already anti-Israel in 1947-8 and pressures the Czechs (and of course the countries already under more complete Communist control than Czechoslovakia) not to sell Israel arms as he pressured them not to accept Marshall Plan aid in OTL. But in that case, the Arab-Israeli situation is changed in other ways--for example, presumably the USSR and its satellites will not support partition at the UN in 1947.
 

Deleted member 1487

All the major and minor nation states had equipment they'd captured they didn't want to store, for one reason or another; from Axis material they'd captured to pre-war or wartime-supplied weapons that were zombie calibers or simply didn't fit with the supply chains they had in hand postwar. The ex-British equipment the French had in 1946, at a point where their policy was US standard and French manufacture, for example. The Greeks ended up with captured Italian and German material in 1945, along with the British standard equipment that flowed into Greece in 1946-47 and the US standard material that started in 1947-48. Same with the Yugoslavs, where end user certificates were fiction, as long as there was cash to be had. The Soviets, of course, had plenty of ex-German, Italian, Austrian, Czech, etc. weapons to dispose of in the late 1940s, and if a direct sale from the USSR was undesired, they had a half dozen satellites that could flush obsolescent material and get it replaced with Soviet standards. Most of the Latin American nations had prewar commercial gear they could replace with US standard equipment, either from L-L in WW 2 or MDAP after the Rio Treaty.

And failing a nation state eager to empty out the back of the warehouses, there were plenty of individuals like Robert Turp, Sam Cummings, and Gerhard Mertins (or their predecessors, like Bannerman).
What sort of quality/functionality would the equipment have that those nations wouldn't want? All that so called zombie calibers would probably be close to less than useful if they couldn't get some sort of commonality in weapons and ammo stocks. Greece is in a civil war in this period, so they probably aren't going to be giving up material they need to fight themselves.

Again I'm not saying the blackmarket couldn't produce for Israel, but it would be more expensive and more difficult to arrange rather than a large scale national contract. If the Czechs aren't supplying it would be because Stalin didn't want them to, so likely no ComBloc nation would fill the contract, nor would much of a black market from their side of the lines yield much. The Yugoslavs probably wouldn't give up anything either, they hoarded everything they could get their hands on, especially given the state of industry as of of the late 1940s.
 

Dave Shoup

Banned
What sort of quality/functionality would the equipment have that those nations wouldn't want? All that so called zombie calibers would probably be close to less than useful if they couldn't get some sort of commonality in weapons and ammo stocks. Greece is in a civil war in this period, so they probably aren't going to be giving up material they need to fight themselves. Again I'm not saying the blackmarket couldn't produce for Israel, but it would be more expensive and more difficult to arrange rather than a large scale national contract. If the Czechs aren't supplying it would be because Stalin didn't want them to, so likely no ComBloc nation would fill the contract, nor would much of a black market from their side of the lines yield much. The Yugoslavs probably wouldn't give up anything either, they hoarded everything they could get their hands on, especially given the state of industry as of of the late 1940s.

The Czechs, Poles, Greeks, etc. all had large stocks of ex-German, ex-Italian, and even their own prewar equipment laying around. Again, where there's hard cash on the table - which the proto-Israelis had - gunrunners find a way. Always have, always will.
 
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