No Way José

What if Napoleon had chosen one of the contending sides for the Spanish throne rather than installing his brother Joseph and what would be the alternate outcomes? On one side was Charles IV and Maria Luisa of Parma and on the other side was their son, Ferdinand VII. In my previous thread about Napoleon not turning on Spain, the users argue that without the Spanish Invasion, the Carlist Wars would have occurred earlier, as the ruling elite was dissatisfied with Spain's two stupid kings and looked to Joseph for relief. With Spain remaining as France's anti-British ally the Carlist Wars would have become a proxy war between France and the United Kingdom. Is it possible Napoleon could give Portugal to Spain, let them suppress Portuguese resistance, and free up resources for the Invasion of Russia?
 
In my Quasi-War Series, I posited a similar scenario:

Napoleon doesn't invade Spain but sides with dumb King Charles when his dumb Prince Ferdinand rebels. Together France and Spain invade Portugal, capturing the Portuguese Royal Family. Napoleon gives the throne of Portugal to Joseph, whom eventually marries his eldest daughter to the new Prince of Spain. That way the Spanish Bourbons, down the road, inherit Portugal (neither Spain nor Portugal are constrained by Salic Law). This keeps France and Spain allies, Spain concentrating on oppressing Portugal in Joseph's name and France is left to her own devices.
 
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