No Warsaw Uprising 1944

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

What if the Polish Home Army had some sort of tip off that the Soviets wouldn't come to their rescue if they rose up before the Red Army attacked the city, so they decide not to revolt until after the Soviets have entered? How would it have impacted the course of the fighting in Poland, the Soviet reaction to the Poles, and the damage inflicted on the city? Would the Polish Home Army have been better prepared to resist Soviet occupation when the Soviets pushed out the Germans?
 
Likely instead of fighting Nazis, they would be in street to street battles with the Russian juggernaut. I’m sure if there was coordination btw Rowecki and Zhukov, they could have swept aside Nazi resistance in short order. However at that point it’s a guessing game which side would turn on each other first. Most likely there would be a minor incident that would spark a general blowback. Pretty much same scenario but Russians would be doing the slaughtering.
 
This could affect the future of Poland quite a bit, as a stronger Home Army stationed to Warsaw would most likely mean that Stalin opts for postwar salami tactics instead of direct establishment of a local puppet regime.
 
I homestly doubt the Home Army would openly fight the Soviets. IMO without the Warsaw Uprising in August 1944 there would be no Anti-Soviet revolt . More likely scenariou would be for the Home Army to attack withdrawing Germans, take control of as much of the city as possible, and welcome the Red Army as co-belligerents. I think the Soviets would not attack the Home Army openly, not right at the beginning. They would most probably insist on the Home Army join the pro-Soviet Berling's Army. Even if the Home Army is allowed to organize its own units, independent of the Berling's forces, the Soviets would press for most of them to leave Warsaw (you do want to fight the Germans, right?) and they would do their best to bleed them out.
And then it would be more or less like IOTL, altough it might take more time. Home Army units would be disbanded with full military honors, and then quietly elimintated: first leaders, then officers. In many cases it would happen even during the war, as IOTL.
 
ATL Polish Resistance work more like the Belgium White Army in 1944?
OTL BWA quietly disarmed demolition charges around Antwerp and guided WALLIES into the city. BWA’s primary goal was preventing Nazis from demolishing Belgian industry as they withdrew. BWA suffered heavy casualties, but mostly succeeded.
WI Poland survives WW2 with much of her economy intact? Post war Russia only wanted a neutral buffer zone in Eastern Europe. Polish communists are allowed to manage Poland with
little interference from Moscow?
 
A tip? The Wilno Uprising has already shown the outcome of even a successful uprising—Polish forces take the city, Red Army troops enter, and NKVD arrests the Poles the next day.

The Warsaw fighters probably had a good idea of where they were bound on August 1. I suspect that they were self-conscious martyrs by that point, setting an example for future rebels to follow.

As to the effects of a Warsaw Uprising against Soviet forces, it probably gets condemned even by the London government, as any open cobelligerence with the Germans would be before May of 1945. This sort of thing writes the Soviets’ propaganda about Fascist Poland for them.

If they had timed the Uprising better, so that the Red Army was in fact crossing the bridges when it broke out, they get the Wilno treatment—a celebratory dinner at which they are herded into trucks and disappeared.
 
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