No War of Spanish Succession

So, lately I've been having an idea for an ATL: what if there had been no war of Spanish succession?
For my POD I offer this: WI Baltasar Carlos (1629-1646), prince of the Asturias and eldest surviving son of King Philip IV by his first marriage to Elisabeth of France, had not died of smallpox at the age of 16? By all accounts, the prince of the Asturias was a healthy child, and at the time of his death he had been betrothed to his first cousin, Archduchess Maria Anna of Austria, who later would marry her intended groom's father, Philip IV (the archduchess's uncle).
The ATL Habsburg kings of Spain in the latter part of the seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries would have had their work cut out for them of course: the Spanish state was in heavy debt and greatly in need of centralization.
Further, if the dynasty survived in Spain but failed in Austria, I think the war of Austrian Succession would have gone much differently, and been much more bloody, as many European powers (i.e. France) would have been quick to act to prevent the Spanish from extending their power east.
While the Habsburgs were monstrously inbred, I think one of the major genetic problems was the uncle-niece match of Philip IV and Maria Anna. So, suppose she would have married her cousin as intended? The risks of genetic disorder are much less with cousin marriage, as modern science has shown. And, assuming they'd managed to have a healthy son, given the politics of the time, I don't think it'd be that much of a stretch to think that the infante would have married a French bride, considering the pattern of Carlos II's first marriage. So assuming he had, the infusion of more Bourbon blood into the family might have had a mitigating effect on the gene pool and allowed the dynasty to continue, for at least a bit longer.
Europe would obviously look much different, especially during the nineteenth century.

What does everyone think? Suggestions, comments, ideas and opinions are all welcome :)
 

Susano

Banned
Hm, intersting.

Keep in mind, though, that its not just one marriage between uncle and niece who caused all the problems! Single incidents of marriages between enar relatives are not that dangerous. The problem is the systematic and generations long inbreeding in the Habsburg family. Baltasar Carlos cousin would be a product of the same, and hence would be just as bad as marrying your niece. Teh real problem is pedigree collapse - when you have less ancestros than you theoretically should have. In what forms this appears is irrelevant...

But, certainly the genetical downfall could have been delayed for some generations. Its a game of probabilities, after all. And the Bourbons inbred just as much as the Habsburgs, and never had any problems. So, with no War of the Spanish Succession... Europe will look different. That the Spanish Succession might be probable had been forseeable for decades, after all, and was a big reason in th etensions between France and Austria. Of corus,e then again, I have no doubt Louis XIV would find some other pretexts to rape the Rhineland as IOTL, or maybe he wouldnt even bother with pretexts.

As fopr Austrias succession, once the Spanish one is changed the butterfly effect takes hold. Its a coin toss, thus: Theres a chance the Austrian male Habsburg line will fail, but then again, maybe it doesnt.
 
figured i'd get things started...

Prologue, 1647
On New Years’ Day, 1647, the twelve year old archduchess Maria-Anna of Austria is married by proxy at St Stephen’s Cathedral in Vienna to her sixteen year old first cousin, Baltasar Carlos, prince of the Asturias and only surviving son of King Felipe IV of Spain. Standing in for the groom is the young Duke of Alba, who has been sent as special envoy of the king of Spain. Attending the ceremony are the bride’s father, the Emperor Ferdinand III, her brothers the archdukes Ferdinand (the young king of Hungary) and Leopold of Austria, and the entire imperial court, while the bishop of Vienna performs the ceremony.
After several grand celebrations (including a magnificent fête and masque held at the Hofburg palace) the archduchess (now princess of the Asturias) departs three days later, accompanied by a multitude of Austrian ladies and retainers. Several weeks later she arrives at the borders of the duchy of Milan, where the archduchess is ceremonially “handed over” to the awaiting Spanish party on the other side, which includes the archduchess’s new Spanish household (complete with ladies in waiting and other attendants) and the duke of Béjar, who has been appointed to have special care of her person. The bridal party then winds its way south to Naples, where they are ceremonially received by the governor general there, and afterwards departs by boat for Spain.
The archduchess arrives in Barcelona several weeks later, from whence she proceeds to Zaragoza. Meanwhile, the Spanish royal party has already arrived at Zaragoza from Madrid, and is being lodged at the bishop’s palace there. The party includes King Felipe IV, the prince of the Asturias, the eight year old infanta María Teresa, the sixteen year old Don Juan de Habsburgo Calderón (the king’s recognized bastard), and the entire Spanish court. It is thus on a cold February day, in the great hall of the bishop’s palace, that the prince of the Asturias first meets his young bride. The next day, the two are officially married in the city’s Cathedral del Salvador. After various celebrations, the royal couple, accompanied by the king, then ride to Madrid, where they make their state entry and then take up residence with the royal court at the Alcázar. To mark the occasion, the city holds a grand auto-de-fe, in which over a hundred heretics are afterwards burned.
Within a little over four months, the princess of the Asturias soon announces her first pregnancy. Over the next eleven years the princess will bear eight children, of which only two will survive infancy: a daughter--the infanta María Antonia of Spain (b. 1649)--and a healthy son--the infante Felipe Próspero of Spain (b. 1655)--thus securing the succession.
 
1648:
The Dutch and Spanish sign the Treaty of Munster, by whose terms Spain finally agrees to recognize the Dutch Republic, officially ending the Eighty Years War. Later that year, the great powers of Europe sign the Treaty of Westphalia, which brings the Thirty Years War to a close.
France and Spain remain at war, however, with Catalonia under French occupation. Nevertheless, with the war in Europe at its end, the Spanish are now able to focus their attention on driving the French out of Catalonia and restoring Spanish rule there, though this will not be achieved completely until the following year.
Meanwhile, with Spanish finances teetering dangerously towards bankruptcy and the state engaged in a state of war with France, the Marq
ués del Carpio (King Felipe's chief minister) advises the king of Spain to strengthen his alliance with Austria further, as it will both protect the interests of Spain and effectively act to encircle the French. King Felipe IV opens negotiations for the marriage of his daughter the ten year old infanta María Teresa to her cousin and brother-in-law, the fifteen year old King Ferdinand IV of Hungary, eldest son of the Emperor. The Austrians are ever eager to pursue the alliance and easily cooperate with the Spanish ambassador in Austria, the Bishop of Badajoz. The infanta and the king of Hungary are officially betrothed at the closing of the year.

1649:
The civil war known as the "Fronde" breaks out in France. In its first phases, the revolt only consists of a small uprising by the forces of discontent members of the Parlement of Paris, though these men are easily pacified by a compromise with the Queen Anne, regent for the minor king Louis XIV.
However, discontent with the influence of the queen regent's adviser Cardinal Mazarin, the Prince de Cond
é, first prince of the blood, begins conspiring to implement a coup and seize power. He makes contact with the archduke Leopold Wilhelm of Austria, the governor-general of the Netherlands for the king of Spain. Archduke Leopold Wilhelm agrees to invade Champagne with his army in Artois, at the behest of King Felipe in Spain.

1650:
Condé is arrested on the orders of Mazarin, after the cardinal intercepts communications between the prince and the archduke Leopold Wilhelm. On King Felipe's orders, Leopold Wilhelm acts immediately and invades Champagne from Artois, taking advantage of the confusion following Condé's arrest. The archduke manages to inflict a heavy defeat on the French commander, the Comte de Plessis-Praslin, and take the fort of Guise. Condé's ally, the Vicomte de Turenne, also revolts and throws in his lot with the archduke, and the forces march towards Paris, with the intention of liberating the prince de Condé and setting him up as regent in the place of Queen Anne, removing the queen's favorite, the anti-Spanish Cardinal Mazarin, from power. After taking Soissons, the Spanish decide to winter in Champagne, forcing Plessis-Praslin to retreat into the Ile-de-France for the time being.
Mazarin, meanwhile, attempts to thwart the coup by having the twelve year old King Louis declare his majority in a lit de justice, wishing to legitimize his position as first minister, and ensure
Condé cannot seize the regency. Nevertheless, Mazarin and Queen Anne remain in de facto power, with the boy king still effectively under their authority.

1651:
Plessis-Praslin manages to block Spanish advancement into the Ile-de-France, but this victory is only mildly successful as Turenne and his forces are already besieging Paris at this time.
Already unpopular with the people of France, who consider him an upstart and a foreigner, Mazarin now finds the city of Paris openly hostile to him, blaming him for the Spanish invasion and the rebellious troops of Turenne which are now at their gates. In the interests of self preservation, the cardinal resigns his office as first minster and goes into voluntary exile, escaping into Italy.
Queen Anne, her closest adviser gone, finally bows to public pressure and releases
Condé from the Bastille. The prince is immediately appointed first minster and takes power, his coup a success.
In a series of clever moves,
Condé is able to secure his position. The prince first takes possession of the person of king and exiles the queen from court. A truce is secured with the Spanish, who still occupy Picardy and northern Champagne.
Peace is finally made between the two realms, and on favorable terms for Spain, much to the delight of King Felipe IV, who now realizes that he has the prince de
Condé virtually in his pocket. The treaty of Soissons is signed, in which France agrees to pay a large sum of reparations to the Spanish (also much to the happiness of King Felipe, as it will at least provide some stability to the abysmal state of Spanish finances). In exchange, the Spanish agree to make peace with the French and retreat back into the Netherlands. Condé, however, remains an ally of the king of Spain, to whom he owes his rise to power.

1653:
The fifteen year old infanta
María Teresa is married by proxy to her twenty-one year old cousin the king of Hungary in Madrid. After several days of celebration, the infanta tearfully leaves her family, accompanied by a large wedding party. The party sets sail from Barcelona and arrives in Naples, where they make their way north by land to Trent, where the official handover of the bride takes place. The infanta then journeys to Innsbruck where she and the king of Hungary are officially married in the presence of the entire imperial court, including the bride's father-in-law, Emperor Ferdinand III. Later that same year, the king of Hungary is elected king of the Romans, and thus eventual successor to his father the Emperor.

1654:
King Ferdinand IV of Hungary dies of smallpox, aged only twenty-two. He leaves his wife,
María Teresa, now styled the "Queen Dowager of the Romans" a sixteen year old widow.
Meanwhile, in Spain, King Felipe IV, his armies moral improved from their recent victories in France, and all his forces now fully focused on Portugal (the Franco-Spanish peace concluded) manages to defeat the Portuguese rebels under the Duke of Braganza and take the city of Lisbon. As the rebels no longer have the aid of the French since the fall of Mazarin, they are unable to hold their position any longer and forced to retreat south, leaving a majority of the realm in Spanish hands.

1655:
The Marq
ués del Carpio, seeing Spain's recent victory in Portugal as a final turning point in the war, decides to ensure that the French alliance will remain secure and the Spanish successes will continue. He thus convinces King Felipe of the prospects of a French marriage for his widowed daughter, María Teresa. The young dowager queen of the Romans is thus betrothed to seventeen year old King Louis XIV of France and a marriage contract hastily drafted and signed. The dowager queen is recalled to Spain, after some delay on the part of her father-in-law the Emperor, who had hoped for the alliance to be renewed with the widowed queen marrying his second son, Archduke Leopold (not to be confused with his cousin, Archduke Leopold Wilhelm). Nevertheless, María Teresa finally returns to Spain, where she is hastily married by proxy at Burgos to the King of France, loaded down with a large bridal retinue, and dispatched to France, where she weds Louis XIV at Bordeaux the following year.
In compensation for his losses, the six year old infanta
[FONT=&quot]María Antonia, granddaughter of King Felipe IV, is betrothed to her uncle, Archduke Leopold, second son and new heir to the Emperor.

1656:
The Duke of Braganza dies of fever in southern Portugal, leaving a child as his heir to reign as pretender to the Portuguese crown. Not wishing to risk the instability of a regency and fight in the name of a child, a majority of the rebels abandon the Duchess of Braganza (now titular regent for her son) and throw in their lot with the Spanish. The rebels surrender later that year and Portugal once again falls into Spanish hands, reuniting the Iberian peninsula. However, discontent will continue throughout that kingdom, and there will be many minor revolts over the next five years that will exhaust the efforts of the Spanish military before they are finally put down and the country completely subdued.

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Even with the Spanish with high spirits the Portuguese also had the Montijo Battle.
And from the accounts from OTL the Spanish will going from a lot of troubles and never got to Lisbon.
Also with the earlier arrival of Schonberg Count things will get more even, he did fight the Spain from the French side.
Now any Portuguese rebel know that if you got kicked out of Lisbon you never go South, but always North.
Just read what happened to any troops that invaded Portugal and the treatment they got depending they wore North of Tagus River or South of it.
Also is the North that are most people, two thirds of the Portuguese people and the ancestral home of the Duke, even if lately his house was in Vila Viçosa South of the Tagus River.
And with a PoD from 1629 means that the Duke eldest ATL son D. Teodosio* will be alive, OTL he lived from 1639 until 1653, he even fight the Spanish in the border and was recognized as a good military.
 
Even with the Spanish with high spirits the Portuguese also had the Montijo Battle.
And from the accounts from OTL the Spanish will going from a lot of troubles and never got to Lisbon.
Also with the earlier arrival of Schonberg Count things will get more even, he did fight the Spain from the French side.
Now any Portuguese rebel know that if you got kicked out of Lisbon you never go South, but always North.
Just read what happened to any troops that invaded Portugal and the treatment they got depending they wore North of Tagus River or South of it.
Also is the North that are most people, two thirds of the Portuguese people and the ancestral home of the Duke, even if lately his house was in Vila Viçosa South of the Tagus River.
And with a PoD from 1629 means that the Duke eldest ATL son D. Teodosio* will be alive, OTL he lived from 1639 until 1653, he even fight the Spanish in the border and was recognized as a good military.

Montijo battle: a weird victory. The portugese made the spanish army to retreat with four times their casualties. Another victory like that and they would have been doomed!
 
First Portugal had managed the acknowledged by Sweden , Netherlands and Britain.
Even had a defensive treaty with Cromwell since 1654, ratified in 1656 here probably it will be ratified earlier.
About the Montijo's Battle Portugal went with 6000 infantrymen and 1100 cavalry with English and Dutch mercenaries against a superior force in Spain near the the village of Montijo close to Badajoz city.
True Portugal had large casualties, the cavalry was destroyed by the Spanish army but the Portuguese infantry managed to drive out the Spanish army.
It was the first time that Portuguese managed to win in Spain a Spanish army for more then 80 years, it was a great morale boost.
 
I don't think Turenne and Conde were ever on the rebel side together during the fronde ( ie, IIRC, the one, single time, Turenne rebelled, Conde was in command of the royal forces. And when Conde rebelled, Turenne was firmly in the king's camp )
 
In compensation for his losses, the six year old infanta [/FONT][FONT=&quot]María Antonia, granddaughter of King Felipe IV, is betrothed to her uncle, Archduke Leopold, second son and new heir to the Emperor.


Oh no, another creepy incestuous marriage. Will there be some inbred horror like OTL's Charles II in the future?
 
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