No War of Spanish Succession: WI Charles II of Spain had lived longer

I've read some threads about the possibilities of Charles II of Spain dieing earlier, or the Electoral Prince of Bavaria surviving to adulthood, but I haven't found any about the possibility of "El Hechizado" living longer and delaying the issue of the Spanish Succession. IOTL everybody expected him to have a short life, but he fooled all the European powers by surviving every single illness he got until he finally died being almost 40 years old. But WI his luck had continued for more 20 years, making him live almost as much as his father? He still have a lot of mental and health problems, can't have a legitimate child, but manages to survive until 1720, delaying the problem of his succession. What could be consequences of the War of the Spanish Succession not happening during the first decades of the 18th century?
 

Susano

Banned
Depends how he survives. That is... I understand the War of the Great Alliance was ended 1698 because it looked like Charles was about to die soon, and hence that issue suddenly become much more important. If as usual he falls gravely ill and recovers again that wont change much, but if hes simply healthy, it might enlengthen that war.

Generally, though, I think all sides will appreciate a short pause of peace after the War of the Grand Alliance which at least finanically was devatsing for all sides (and as usual for Western Germany also in terms of damages suffered).
 
Depends how he survives. That is... I understand the War of the Great Alliance was ended 1698 because it looked like Charles was about to die soon, and hence that issue suddenly become much more important. If as usual he falls gravely ill and recovers again that wont change much, but if hes simply healthy, it might enlengthen that war.

I prefer the idea of making him constantly falling ill enough to make everybody starting to negotiate the partitions and then recovering again, again and again. I can only imagine the face of Louis XIV everytime he hears about Charles' recovery.:p
 
If he outlives Louis XIV, is it possible to butterfly the succession war entirely?

Let's assume that the butterflies of allowing Charles II to live until 1720 prevent the Bourbon family from being ripped to shreds -- Le Grand Dauphin does not die in 1710 and small pox does not steal away the Duc and Duchesse de Bourgogne, nor the Duke of Bretagne (Louis XV's older brother). The Bourbon family is thus quite extended -- Le Grand Dauphin has three sons and presumably some grandsons as well.

It could also allow the Emperor Joseph to allow his son to survive -- thus giving the Habsburgs a viable candidate, rather than a man who would unite the Habsburg territories as they were in the 16th centuries.

These could all be mixed. If Joseph's son survives but small pox and deaths still decimate the Bourbon dynasty -- I can see Philippe d'Orléans as Regent of France seeking to distance himself from the aggressive legacy of Louis XIV and supporting a partition treaty of sorts with the Great Powers that will allow Archduke Charles to inherit Spain, but at the cost of the Lowlands and Milan, and perhaps the Kingdom of Naples & Sicily to Philip. We would probably see a second Spanish Succession War ITTL barely ten years later, when Charles VI dies without a male heir -- perhaps Philip of Anjou gains Spain then, or somehow the claims of the Habsburgs and Bourbons are fused at this point -- Philips son Louis, or Ferdinand (or whatever he might be named ATL) could easily marry Maria Theresa...

Likewise, if we see Le Grand Dauphin inherit the throne as Louis XV, we could see a scenario of a war in the 1720s between the Houses of Bourbon and Habsburg, the hot-tempered and young Leopold II (surviving son of Joseph II) endorsing his uncle Charles against Philip of Anjou.

Or even a scenario where the Bourbon candidate is favored over the Habsburg because Charles VI is Emperor and no one wants the thrones to be united...

I would also see the possibility of a neutral candidate being suggested, if Charles VI is Emperor, but Philip of Anjou is around too. Considering how melancholy Philip became in later life, I could see the French court (whether under Le Grand Dauphin, the Regent Philippe, or anyone else -- one of Louis XIV's bastards as Regent, ect) deciding not to endorse him, or maybe to endorse the Duke of Berry instead, if he still alive ATL (as the Duke of Berry was to be next in line for the Spanish throne should Philip refuse it).

There are many possibilities and many ways for this go, depending on the butterflies, and how you would want for the scenario to play out. Sorry if this post seems confusing, I am quite tired, but I find this idea quite interesting.
 
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There are many possibilities and many ways for this go, depending on the butterflies, and how you would want for the scenario to play out. Sorry if this post seems confusing, I am quite tired, but I find this idea quite interesting.

Sure, the butterflies affecting the succession 20 years later would be huge, and we could play in so many ways that one might go crazy with it.:p

That's why I'm more concerned about the immediate consequences of the war not happening in 1700. For example, would Prussia still become a kingdom and Hanover be made an electorate without the war? And could the Great Northern War (that also started in 1700) involved other powers, becoming a general European War?
 
Sure, the butterflies affecting the succession 20 years later would be huge, and we could play in so many ways that one might go crazy with it.:p

That's why I'm more concerned about the immediate consequences of the war not happening in 1700. For example, would Prussia still become a kingdom and Hanover be made an electorate without the war? And could the Great Northern War (that also started in 1700) involved other powers, becoming a general European War?

IIRC, Hanover became an electorate because of services rendered during the War of the Grand Alliance, so that would probably occur even if Charles II continues to baffle the Christendom by surviving. I also thing Hanover's elevation to the Electors was an attempt to increase the number of Protestant electors. The Palatinate had formally become Catholic upon the inheritance of the Simmern line in 1685, the Elector of Saxony had accepted Catholicism to take the Polish throne, the King of Bohemia was the Habsburg Emperor, and the Prince-Archbishops of Cologne, Trier, and Mainz were Catholic, leaving the Elector of Brandenburg as the sole Protestant in the college of Electors.

I'm unsure about Prussia myself, as it's my forte of knowledge, but it seems likely to happen at some point down the line, or something similar. Westphalia had plunged a dagger into the heart of the empire, and Leopold I was the first Holy Roman Emperor to begin to rely more on his hereditary domains in Austria, Bohemia, and Hungary than on the empire as a whole.
 
I can't see Prussia being elevated to a Kingdom. The negotiations that allowed Friedrich I to use the title King in Prussia were tied to his service to Leopold I in the War of Spanish Succession, so if you remove the war then you also remove this option, at least as long as the Emperor does not need Prussian support.

I want to look at coming else however, it has been proposed that if Archduke Karl (OTL Charles VI) were to take the Spanish throne after Charles II's death that upon his death a war would break out, however we has absolutely no precedent for that to happen. Firstly, if Joseph I and all of the Bourbons can have sons that survive until adulthood, why can't Charles III? And even if he doesn't, he still has Maria Theresa and Maria Anna, and last I checked, Spanish held to Semi-Salic Law so Maria Theresa would still inherit the throne with Francis Stephen of Lorraine as her King Consort as Francisco I of Spain. I'm sure Charles would still issue some form of Pragmatic Sanction even if succession was assured under Maria Theresa. And even if he has no children that survive to adulthood, once again, I'm sure a man who was as anil about succession as Charles would appoint a clear successor (likely one of his nephew's [Leopold II Holy Roman Emperor] sons).
 
I can't see Prussia being elevated to a Kingdom. The negotiations that allowed Friedrich I to use the title King in Prussia were tied to his service to Leopold I in the War of Spanish Succession, so if you remove the war then you also remove this option, at least as long as the Emperor does not need Prussian support.

I want to look at coming else however, it has been proposed that if Archduke Karl (OTL Charles VI) were to take the Spanish throne after Charles II's death that upon his death a war would break out, however we has absolutely no precedent for that to happen. Firstly, if Joseph I and all of the Bourbons can have sons that survive until adulthood, why can't Charles III? And even if he doesn't, he still has Maria Theresa and Maria Anna, and last I checked, Spanish held to Semi-Salic Law so Maria Theresa would still inherit the throne with Francis Stephen of Lorraine as her King Consort as Francisco I of Spain. I'm sure Charles would still issue some form of Pragmatic Sanction even if succession was assured under Maria Theresa. And even if he has no children that survive to adulthood, once again, I'm sure a man who was as anil about succession as Charles would appoint a clear successor (likely one of his nephew's [Leopold II Holy Roman Emperor] sons).

It's likely the Emperor will need the support of the Hohenzollerns at some point, so if anything the question is simply delayed, not removed totally. Considering the late 17th century Hohenzollerns and those in the early 18th century were slowly bringing Brandenburg up to Great Power status, I can't see them simply giving up on aspirations for a royal title.

I was simply suggesting the possibility of a further conflict regarding the Spanish succession, not that it had to happen. Of course Charles VI could have a surviving son, just as Joseph could have one, or the Bourbons could survive. That all very much depends on butterflies. And even though Spanish has a precedent for a Queen-Regnant, I can absolutely see another war breaking out were Maria-Theresa or some ATL female succeeding Charles VI. Precedent matters little when it comes down to political reality: one could argue that there was no reason for a civil war to break out in Spain OTL after the death of Ferdinand VII on the basis that Spain traditionally had a semi-salic succession and the salic succession introduced by Philip V was foreign -- but still, a war broke out between the supporters of Carlos VI and Isabella II, plaguing Spain for the whole of the 19th century.

Thus even though precedent exists, I would definately see Charles VI issuing some form of the pragmatic succession were he the King of Spain and without a son to succeed him, having only daughters, and I would definately see France trying to press the claims of Philip of Anjou once again once he dies. I was not suggesting that any ATL Maria-Theresa would be denied the throne -- but that she might have to fight for it. And even if she doesn't have to fight for it, there is always the chance of ending all arguments stemming from the Spanish succession by fusing the succession claims of Charles II, Bourbon and Habsburg, by having the Habsburg claimant (ATL Maria-Theresa or whatever her name may be) marry the Bourbon claimant (Which would be either an ATL Louis or Ferdinand).

It would definately be interesting to see the early years of 18th century politics dealing with securing and settling the question of the Spanish Succession.

That is just one of the many scenarios that could play out, however. I suggested a whole slew of others as well.
 
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