No War of Polish Succession: Jakub Ludwig is King of Poland-Lithuania

Say John III Sobieski lives a little longer manages to get his son Jakub Louis as the King of Poland using the influence from the Polish-Lithuanian victory in the great turkish war. Or at the very least confirm his succession with the sejm prior to his death.

How would this affect European dynamics and the upcoming War of Austrian Succession?

How would Poland-Lithuania fare vis-a-vis Russia and Prussia?

Also how would it affect Austria's strength for the upcoming war. I suppose France, Spain & Bavaria will still declare war, so would holding Naples, Sicily & Lorraine be more help or hurt for the Austrians, British & Dutch?

Would Prussia still make a dash for Silesia?

Thanks for the ever enlightening discussions.
 
No takers, I thought it'd be pretty interesting given the time frame. I personally was thinking along the lines that when (assuming Jacob has the same lifespan) he dies as he did in 1737 we'd have another PLC crisis similar to OTL.

Candidates in the PLC election too would make things quite interesting, all of Jacob Louis surviving daughters were married to French nobles (la tour d'Auvergne) and James Francis Stuart (Jacobite pretender to the throne of England). Seeing as they are relatives of the last King, plus Stanisław I Leszczyński is still alive. The vast majority of strong candidates would be highly in the Pro-french camp.

What would make it really interesting would be to increased possibility of English intervention. If Charles VI were to die in 1740 as he did, the powers and estates of the HRE and Europe would have to react to the Pragmatic Sanction (confirming that they would still recognise it) whilst the war was still on going. France at this point probably holds Lorraine, Spain holds the Two Sicilies and Savoy most likely holds Milan.

Bavaria could declare war now and she'd stand an even greater chance of winning, I don't see Prussia making a dash for Silesia. I think she'd want some compensation in Poland though. I thought maybe the wars would morph into one grand war against the Bavaria, France & Spain. Savoy would probably flip over the the Habsburg-Lorraine camp and England/GBR would have to declare war if not all of Europe would be in French hands. The true wild cards here are Sweden & Denmark-Norway as they could prove to be lethal distractors on either side. I just can't hazard a guess as to who would come out on top.

Thanks.
 
I'm asking this bcause my knowledge of 18th century Polish politics is patchy in places, but didn't Stanislas Lesczynski agree originally to be a placeholder king until the time the crown could be handed over to one of the Sobieskis? That said, Jan III's sons seemed to have dismal luck since only Jakub produced a son (to my knowledge) but the boy was either stillborn or died shortly after. Perhaps when Stanislas is elected, Carl XII marries Maria Kasimire Sobieski (as originally planned, except the lady decided she preferred a convent) and that sort of forces Stanczyk to hand off power to Jakub, perhaps?

Another way is simply to avoid Jakub's issues with his mother, I don't know what they were exactly, but they were a doozy enough to cause her to prefer the Bavarian elector's candidature over her own son.
 
When Austria still holds on to Naples & Sicily, when the war of Austrian Succession happens. I can see them hold much of it together, but Naples & Sicily might go the elector of Bavaria as compensation.
Lorraine will most likely still be lost, but like IOTL the duke of Lorraine & Bar will need proper compensation like IOTL Tuscany. Habsburg worst case if a Habsburg Lorraine marriage still happens, Francis Stephan (or Leopold Clement) might be given the Southern Netherlands or Milan as compensation during his lifetime, which will be reunited with once his son inherits him and his mother Maria Theresia.
 
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