No War of 1898

What if the US Government doesn't give in to public opinion and doesn't send the ultimatum to the Spanish Government?

I read in Dreadnought by Robert K Massie that the German Government was hoping to buy the Philippines and the Kaiser was furious that the Americans beat him to it. Germany did buy the Spanish Pacific islands, but that might have been because the Spanish thought they were not worth keeping after loosing the Philippines and Guam.

If they were sold to Germany is it most likely that the Japanese would take them in World War One and keep them in the peace treaty?

Although I'm primarily interested on the effects it might have on the development of Japan the development of the United States as a world power might be altered if it doesn't annex the Philippines, Guam and Puerto Rico.

The subsequent history of Spain might be altered too, but how? Would Cuba have become independent at the same time as OTL without American help?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Interesting question-

The war between the Cubans and the Spanish had bogged down into a stalemate, the Queen regent was looking for a political settlement and probably was willing to grant the Cubans a lot for peace. Spain was simply broke

The Germans were angling for some or all of the Philippines but I don't think the Spanish are willing to sell out. Spain is country that Europe would never allow Japan to attack on its own and Spain would sit out WWI so I don't see the Japanese getting it

As for Spain, she would have not experienced the massive economic boom that she got from losing her colonies. Not only did she no longer have to defend them (and remember the Philippines are in open revolt as well) the Spanish living in the Philippines and Cuba sold out and brought the money home

The Americans are interesting- they might have stuck to their policy of the Monroe doctrine and stayed out of Eastern Hemisphere politics. The sharp decline in Russo-American relations probably doesn't happen
 
Spain Sells The Philippines to Germany in 1899

As for Spain, she would have not experienced the massive economic boom that she got from losing her colonies. Not only did she no longer have to defend them (and remember the Philippines are in open revolt as well) the Spanish living in the Philippines and Cuba sold out and brought the money home.

According to Wikipaedia the remaining Spanish possessions in the Pacific were sold to Germany for 25 million pesetas (equivalent to 17 million Marks) under the German-Spanish Treaty of 1899.

Then what if there is no War of 1898, but a year later the Spanish Government decides that it can't win the wars in Cuba and the Philippines? What if it recognises Cuban independence, but sells the Philippines and Guam to Germany along with the territories it sold in the real world?

The Spanish Government would want a lot more than 17 million Marks for them. Would it use that extra money to strengthen the massive economic boom you say that Spain experienced after 1898? I know nothing of Spain's political history before the Civil War, but if Spain was a richer nation would that influence the events that led up to it?

Having a colony like the Philippines would strengthen the argument for expanding the German Navy. However, the cost of buying the Philippines might take away some of the money used to pay for Germany's naval expansion IOTL.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
According to Wikipaedia the remaining Spanish possessions in the Pacific were sold to Germany for 25 million pesetas (equivalent to 17 million Marks) under the German-Spanish Treaty of 1899.

Then what if there is no War of 1898, but a year later the Spanish Government decides that it can't win the wars in Cuba and the Philippines? What if it recognises Cuban independence, but sells the Philippines and Guam to Germany along with the territories it sold in the real world?

The Spanish Government would want a lot more than 17 million Marks for them. Would it use that extra money to strengthen the massive economic boom you say that Spain experienced after 1898? I know nothing of Spain's political history before the Civil War, but if Spain was a richer nation would that influence the events that led up to it?

Having a colony like the Philippines would strengthen the argument for expanding the German Navy. However, the cost of buying the Philippines might take away some of the money used to pay for Germany's naval expansion IOTL.

With a bit more thought, I'm coming round to this view

The Spanish had already changed course in Cuba. After the assassination of Canovas and his replacement by the liberal party under Sagasta, the Spanish do offer Cuba autonomy. The Spanish are immensely concerned with honor and the fear is a Carlist revolt at home

The Philippines are a bit different. I know of no effort to reach a political settlement but, yeah, if the war drags out another couple of years, the Spanish might be seeking a way out

So if we move the purchase to after 1900 I could see it happening.

The Spanish are still going to enjoy an immense economic boom- the money is coming home and the cost of the war is gone. Anything they get for the Philippines is gravy

For the Germans, the cost would be a bit higher than 17,000,000. The Americans pay the Spanish $20,000,000 (80,000,000 marks) for the public buildings in the Philippines. So let's say the Germans offer an even 100,000,000 marks.

That's not all that much money for Germany on a one off basis. She's spending about 250 million marks annually for her navy. She'll borrow the money and be done with it

The drain would be the same one the Americans discovered- they just bought a war as the Filipinos will continue their revolt. The Americans pretty much give in to the Filipinos, but the Kaiser is going to take a lot of persuading on that one. The war will drag on and be a serious drain on the Germans
 
Having though about it more myself I think it is more likely that the Spanish Government would recognise Philippine independence in 1899, but still sell its remaining Pacific Islands (which ITTL include Guam) to Germany. That should prevent a major butterfly effect on Germany and Spain.

How long would the Philippines survive as an independent nation? I think the Japanese would move in at some point before 1937. They did the same to Korea and Manchuria and got away with both.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Having though about it more myself I think it is more likely that the Spanish Government would recognise Philippine independence in 1899, but still sell its remaining Pacific Islands (which ITTL include Guam) to Germany. That should prevent a major butterfly effect on Germany and Spain.

How long would the Philippines survive as an independent nation? I think the Japanese would move in at some point before 1937. They did the same to Korea and Manchuria and got away with both.

The Philippines would never last as an Independent nation- the reason the US reluctantly decided to annex them after the Spanish War. I doubt if they would last five years

The question becomes what does Russia and France do? 1899 is the height of the Boer War and the Japanese Naval program hadn't really kicked in. Without the British Alliance, Japan is doing nothing in the Pacific
 
To put a bit of perspective on this AH obsession with spain Selling Cuba or the Philippines. In 1898, the Philippines had been spanish territory for 323 years. That is more time than any state of the USA has been part of the USA, for example.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
To put a bit of perspective on this AH obsession with spain Selling Cuba or the Philippines. In 1898, the Philippines had been spanish territory for 323 years. That is more time than any state of the USA has been part of the USA, for example.


Very true but the Spanish had spent themselves broke and had nothing to show for it. With the assassination of Canovas and the beginning of Segasta's ministry, the Spanish start seeking a political settlement.

The Queen Regent did tell the Germans that she would be happy to get rid of Cuba if she was also relieved of the debt but that is in March 1898- very late in the game and she doesn't pursue the matter.

Good insights into the thinking of the German government on the matter-

https://archive.org/stream/germandiplomatic02etsd#page/495/mode/1up
 

Driftless

Donor
Having a colony like the Philippines would strengthen the argument for expanding the German Navy. However, the cost of buying the Philippines might take away some of the money used to pay for Germany's naval expansion IOTL.

Who would the British prefer to be governing the Philippines? Filipinos, Americans, Germans, Japanese - especially if there's a potent and growing navy involved?

OTL, the British stayed on the sidelines with the Americans taking over. Would they have been so accomodating if the Germans or Japanese were to step in? Would the British have sat on the sidelines if the Filipinos ran their own country or if the Philippines separated into different regional political entities?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Who would the British prefer to be governing the Philippines? Filipinos, Americans, Germans, Japanese - especially if there's a potent and growing navy involved?

OTL, the British stayed on the sidelines with the Americans taking over. Would they have been so accomodating if the Germans or Japanese were to step in? Would the British have sat on the sidelines if the Filipinos ran their own country or if the Philippines separated into different regional political entities?

Britain isn't strong enough to decide such an issue on its own and its most likely that some sort of partition is made. Being islands, everyone should be able to take a share and be happy
 

TinyTartar

Banned
Who would the British prefer to be governing the Philippines? Filipinos, Americans, Germans, Japanese - especially if there's a potent and growing navy involved?

OTL, the British stayed on the sidelines with the Americans taking over. Would they have been so accomodating if the Germans or Japanese were to step in? Would the British have sat on the sidelines if the Filipinos ran their own country or if the Philippines separated into different regional political entities?

The answer to this question is of course "NOT the Germans". The Japanese and the British I believe had some kind of treaty or were about to sign one and had cooperated in the past. The US owning the Philippines means that the Germans don't own them, which is good; the US also was pro-British at this point in time because of the dispute over Samoa, where the Kaiser was trying to flex his muscles. The Filipinos can be bullied for coal stations and concessions by a British fleet, which is also good for them.

Basically, it is an anybody but Germany situation. However, the French owning them would be less than ideal as that puts a stranglehold on the region with their possessions in Indochina.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The answer to this question is of course "NOT the Germans". The Japanese and the British I believe had some kind of treaty or were about to sign one and had cooperated in the past. The US owning the Philippines means that the Germans don't own them, which is good; the US also was pro-British at this point in time because of the dispute over Samoa, where the Kaiser was trying to flex his muscles. The Filipinos can be bullied for coal stations and concessions by a British fleet, which is also good for them.

Basically, it is an anybody but Germany situation. However, the French owning them would be less than ideal as that puts a stranglehold on the region with their possessions in Indochina.

The Anglo-Japanese Treaty isn't signed until January 1902 and is very limited and aimed solely at Russia. The US is only "pro-British" after the Spanish War when the British tilted America's way in hopes of ending the rivalry. Without the Spanish War, the Irish vote would keep America firmly anti-English

The Filipinos can be bullied by everyone's fleet
 
If it's the Japanese instead of the Germans taking over in the 1900s then that fits in rather neatly with my longer term plan, which was for the Japanese to occupy the Philippines in World War One and keep them in the peace treaty.
 
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