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There's been a variety of threads lately on the war of 1812, with plenty of rather strong opinions being bandied about. Given the military realities however it seems difficult to greatly change the outcome, at least without a relatively early POD/massive screwing of one side or the other by other factors.

A more interesting question IMO is if the war did not occur at all. This shouldn't be too hard to achieve, an end to impressment for one reason or another would do it, perhaps Napoleon falls of his horse and the war in Europe ends early. No war however does not mean no tensions, there are still plenty of border disputes and in particular the British presence in nominally American territories in the Great Lakes as well as their support of Tecumseh and other tribes which could spoil relations. Perhaps most importantly the lack of a frustrating and relatively inconclusive war means a lack of understanding the limitations of both British and American power at the time.

Personally I think the most likely outcome of such a scenario would not greatly differ in appearance to what occurred IOTL, though I guess the butterflies further down the track could dramatically change the world. The US and British Empire had strong interests in trade and peace, after all. Nevertheless, I do think there is some room for a future and far more bloody competition in North America, in particular if a later war broke out between the US and Britain over border disputes/British support for the Amerindians. A (much larger than in 1812) US conquest of Canada during the 1820's? An undistracted British Empire devastating the US economy? Or perhaps border disputes being resolved more in favour of Canada?
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