No war in Pacific..and after?

Assume that the position of United States respect to Japan is more soft:No American embargo on oil in exchange to some Japanese concessions.
Also Japan not joint to axis.
Nothing Pearl Harbour attack or war in Pacific.
USA intervenes in WW-II (for some casus belli with nazi Germany) in 1942.
Allied win the war in 1945,less or more in OTL.
Now,from 1946, we have in east an Empire of Japan that occupies Korea and part of China.
What happens with cold war,Mao tse tung,decolonization?
 
lounge60 said:
No American embargo on oil in exchange to some Japanese concessions.
Which is more what FDR had in mind...:rolleyes:
lounge60 said:
Also Japan not joint to axis.
Very possible, with better Allied diplomacy. It makes the oil embargo somewhat less likely IMO.
lounge60 said:
Nothing Pearl Harbour attack or war in Pacific.
No embargo, this is very probable.
lounge60 said:
USA intervenes in WW-II (for some casus belli with nazi Germany) in 1942.
Allied win the war in 1945,less or more in OTL.
Very likely. Maybe sooner.
lounge60 said:
Now,from 1946, we have in east an Empire of Japan that occupies Korea and part of China.
What happens with cold war,Mao tse tung,decolonization?
First & obvious question: is Japan still at war with China? If so, there's a pretty good chance the U.S. ends up at war with Japan anyhow, in aid of ROC.

If it's over, it's almost certain Chiang has cut a deal with Japan & Mao & CCP are history.

Chances are pretty good the Bomb isn't finished in time to use it on Germany. (It could be, but there's less urgency than OTL, so, on balance, probably no change.) This makes it disturbingly likely there's a major nuclear exchange in the '50s, over Berlin.:eek::eek: (Presuming the WAllies don't do enough better to get there first & the Sovs don't end the war inside their prewar borders--which isn't impossible.)

It means we don't get to see MacArthur's Travelling Road Show for 44 mo & he ends his life in relative obscurity in Manila.:cool::cool: (Nor do we get to see him get fired.:mad: That, however, is a net gain.;))

It also means there's no Korean War & no Vietnam War as we know them. (It doesn't rule out ROC getting frisky with Japan, or IndoChina...) So, we never learn McNamara is a nitwit.:p

So, "M*A*S*H" doesn't get made, which butterflies away the TV career of Gary Burghoff (even if the TV series was, & it isn't going to be, either), William Christopher, & Jamie Farr. It means Alan Alda isn't seen as a first-rate egomaniac. It also means Mike Farrell & Loretta Swit aren't nearly so well-known. (Does Swit get "Cagney & Lacey", instead?) How many guest stars got their start there?

"The Manchurian Candidate" never gets made.:eek::eek: (Or remade, which is good.) "Platoon" doesn't get made, so Oliver Stone probably spends his career in TV. "Apocalypse Now", neither. A whole genre of movies (the crazed returning vet) disappears. (Including "Taxi Driver"?) "Rambo" never happens. (Nor the plague of awful sequels.:cool::cool:) Nor "84 Charlie Mopic":( (which I kind of liked). "Combat!" doesn't get cancelled so soon. "Tour of Duty" never happens.:( (I liked that.) Nor "China Beach". Magnum probably is closer to Rockford (not that the show was really far anyhow) & not a vet. Neither is Rick Simon.:eek: Or Howard Hunter.:eek::eek:

It also means Bolan never happens.:eek::eek: (Does Don Pendleton go on to Joe Copp, instead?:cool: Or is he never heard from?:eek::(:()

Without the "Vietnam malaise", is the U.S. more inclined to become involved in wars overseas?
 
When the war in Europe ends ( It is still called World War II even though it is less global than World War I ) the UN is founded and the UN is a forum for international pressure on Japan to withdraw from China.
 
As long as Japan is still fighting in China, they need oil. Even without the US oil embargo, Japan was rapidly running out of hard currency to pay for it.

Moreover, the us might stop selling oil, due to its own wartime needs, even if there isnt a formal embargo.

Even if the us did continue selling oil, Japan cant get it to the home islands, as the us will divert its tankers, even if not oil.


As long as Japan stays in China, which will be as long as the government allows 'policy by assassination', Japan is ... in an impossible place.

So really, you've got to have a pod back in the early 30s to keep the war in china from getting out of hand.
 
Dathi THorfinnsson said:
you've got to have a pod back in the early 30s to keep the war in china from getting out of hand.
Or a Diet willing to cut a deal in '37. Or Chiang more willing--& with less U.S. aid, that may happen.
 
In regards to China, the US would still be supplying an American Volunteer Group to provide air support, providing Lend Lease aid to arm and supply 30 divisions, and having a military mission in Chungking. The Burma Road would remain open and eventually a Burma-Yunnan railroad completeled between Lashio and Kunming. Combined with Chiang not losing his best units because of the 1942 disaster in Burma, China will likely greatly improve its position during the war as American supplies flow into China at large capacity while a growing military mission improves the Chinese army.

The war will continue for a while, and China is unlikely to have the collapse it experienced IRL during Ichigo in 1944.
 
Or a Diet willing to cut a deal in '37. Or Chiang more willing--& with less U.S. aid, that may happen.

No, not going to work. Anyone suggests a back down was assassinated. So, no, the members of the diet dont want to die.

Also, any japanese 'deal' would have left chiang as less than a puppet. Whats the incentive for him to do so?
 
There were attempts by Premier Prince Konoye to negotiate with FDR and he (Konoye) was willing to move out of China proper. There is some controversy as to why it never happened, but in reading Churchill's WW2 history, he says FDR blew him off. What if FDR did meet in Hawaii or Alaska with Konoye and Japan moved out of China. Manchurias pro Japanese govt was recognized and US trade restarted unfettered. The Southeast Asia Co-prosperity Sphere is not needed.
If the Army doesn't rebel then there is no need for Japan to go to war. The first offer to negotiate was before seizing Indo-China and signing the Axis...hmmm.
 
.)
It also means there's no Korean War & no Vietnam War as we know them. (It doesn't rule out ROC getting frisky with Japan, or IndoChina...) So, we never learn McNamara is a nitwit.:p

......

....
It also means Bolan never happens.:eek::eek: (Does Don Pendleton go on to Joe Copp, instead?:cool: Or is he never heard from?:eek::(:()

Without the "Vietnam malaise", is the U.S. more inclined to become involved in wars overseas?

The short answer to the last is yes. The rest of that assumes none of the various military interventions of the 1960s dont develop into something that inspires more movies about the horrors of war. Post WWII there was a twenty year crop of anti war movies that faded out only with the intro of the 'fresh' crop from the Vietnam war. So, all those entertainers are liable to stumble into into yet another remake of 'The Victors & the Vanquished' or something drawn from a US military action elesewhere.
 
As long as Japan is still fighting in China, they need oil. Even without the US oil embargo, Japan was rapidly running out of hard currency to pay for it.

...........

As long as Japan stays in China, which will be as long as the government allows 'policy by assassination', Japan is ... in an impossible place.

So really, you've got to have a pod back in the early 30s to keep the war in china from getting out of hand.

The alternate is this: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=7332257#post7332257

That is the nationalists fall apart & by cica 1939 only the Communists have a army independant from Japans control in China.
 
No Pacific war butterflies the huge infrastructure that the USN and the USAAF built to support operations in the South Pacific. Without those airport runways and ports there will be less tourism there postwar. TWA, BOAC and other airlines would also run flying boats into this region for a lot longer than in OTL.

Australia would also have less pressure to develop domestic industry without the fear of being cut off from the supply of manufactured goods from England.
 
The Europeans can hang onto their Asian colonies longer? With no defeat & discreditation or disruption of European rule independance movements will have to take a different & probablly longer course of action.

In Europe the Brits & assorted exile governments are in better shape for fighting Germany without a Pacific war disaster.
 
Peabody-Martini said:
No Pacific war butterflies the huge infrastructure that the USN and the USAAF built to support operations in the South Pacific. Without those airport runways and ports there will be less tourism there postwar. TWA, BOAC and other airlines would also run flying boats into this region for a lot longer than in OTL.
Excellent point. It also means the large numbers of aircrew, which go to airlines postwar, aren't trained. And the very large number of AAF airbases aren't built, so the domestic U.S. defense budget is (somewhat) smaller.

Thinking of airbases & flying boats, it suggests both Saro Duchess & P6M would enter service.:cool::cool:
Peabody-Martini said:
Australia would also have less pressure to develop domestic industry without the fear of being cut off from the supply of manufactured goods from England.
With a capitalist ROC so close? I'd guess just the opposite: more car industry, at a minimum.
 
The Europeans can hang onto their Asian colonies longer? With no defeat & discreditation or disruption of European rule independance movements will have to take a different & probablly longer course of action.

In Europe the Brits & assorted exile governments are in better shape for fighting Germany without a Pacific war disaster.

That was the first thing I thought of, but does the Japanese occupation of French Indochina still happen?
 
That was the first thing I thought of, but does the Japanese occupation of French Indochina still happen?

Not if Japan wants to steer clear of a Pacific War. It was the Indochina occupation that reduced the opposition in Congress and caused the US to join Britain in organizing the embargos. Until then folks had thought the war might wind down as Britain had repeled the Blitz & the current talks between the US and Japan gave some hope for peace in Asia. The Japanese occupation and German encouragement of it showed it was never going to stop. A month later in April Germany attacked nuetral Yugoslavia and declared war on Greece. Peace was obviously not at hand.
 
Carl Schwamberger said:
Not if Japan wants to steer clear of a Pacific War.
So what does Japan do about gaining access to Chungking? The whole idea of taking northern IndoChina was so she could cut off ROC access to supplies from outside, by way of the railway inland...
 
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