Admiral Fischer
Banned
Well, since the force pool location is southern China for the Sickle, and not Indochina (though RTL headquartered in Saigon/Ho Chi Minh City), I would have to dig into the OOB and see what could be redirected in an ATL configuration.
I have no idea what this sickle you keep talking about it is, but the OTL OOB isn't going to be useful in determining necessary changes to Japanese logistics chain, aviation strength, and most importantly, operational targets. In 1941, with French Indochina at their disposal, the Japanese planners could count on dumps in Haiphong, Cam Rahn Bay, and Saigon for continuous supply operation, where ammunition and fuel were pooled for months at the expense of the Chinese theater, which caused grievances and protests from the China Expeditionary Army to the high command. Indeed, the main invasion force was assembled and received the initial supplies from South China, but further supports were provided from the logistics base in French Indochina. The Senshi Sosho vol.1 dedicates a whole subchapter to explain this logistics chain, and notes how the 26th Army's operation in the British Malaya was depended on maintaining rail link between Saigon and the British Malaya, which passed through Siam. The botched British attempt to destroy this rail link at the Perak river crossing is mentioned, apparently it took only ten days to restore the bridge to service.
This picture, however, changes as whole for the 1940 war plan. Obviously, the Japanese force can't use French Indochina to pool their supplies, or use its airfields, unless they capture one. This meant, first, the Malaya operation had to wait before the Japanese invasion force could establish a bridgehead in French Indochina to enable supporting the invasion of Malaya, and indeed the plan called for the capture of the Da Nang Airfield, Cam Rahn Bay, Saigon, and Hanoi at the first phase of the war. That and the Borneo operation accomplished, only then the British Malaya operation could proceed, according to the 1940 war plan. However even if port and railroad facilities are captured intact, they wouldn't be able to supply the invasion as much they did during the historical invasion of Malaya, with the operations in French Indochina consuming supplies and requiring aviation supports as much as the British Malaya operation does. Second, it was under such circumstance that the Japanese Army planners pointed Mersing as the main landing site, as Mersing was nearest to Singapore than any other potential land sites, despite of anticipated difficulties in landing on the site. The Army had to capture Singapore as soon as possible before the operation turn into a potential disaster, so they had look at Singapore and only Singapore. Third, the plan was submitted before the French surrender, and Siam's position wasn't clear as yet. The Army planners valued Singora and its airfield in Siamese Malaya as a potential support base for the British Malaya operation, and the 1940 plan called for occupying the site but because of the Siamese neutrality they had to insert a conditional clause that Singora would be occupied only if the circumstances allows such. Which is unlikely to come for this scenario, because its very premise is European war not happening at all, and without common Indochinese border with Japan Siam is more likely to sit down and watch before weighting into one side. For the case where Japan violates the Siamese neutrality anyway, I can't speak, but it is significant that the 1941 plan does not mention any 'circumstances' at all in occupying Singora. (EDIT:... while the 1940 one does.)
Considering such constraints it is no wonder that the 1940 war planners called for only two divisions to be deployed to British Malaya and French Indochina each.
Looks like the 38th and the "Dash Forward" with assigned support units are about it for Phase II operations after Malaya falls. IOW what RTL happened.
The division was a part of the phase I operation and did their part by securing Hong Kong. The division was earmarked for the Dutch East Indies after the fall of Hong Kong, and this was decided before the war.
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