Lets assume that the European theater of WWII either doesn't happen at all, or is concluded with some peace agreement by the end of 1940 at the latest (if the specific POD matters to the ultimate answer, go with the usual PM Halifax + disaster at Dunkirk cliche scenario). The Second Sino-Japanese War proceeds essentially as OTL up until that point.
Given these parameters, how will Japan proceed in the Pacific? Will Japan find themselves embroiled in a conflict with the Western Allies in the Pacific, or will Japan manage to avoid getting entangled in a larger conflict?
My intuition is that without an oil embargo, Japan would continue fighting a long war of attrition with China, and probably avoids getting into direct conflict with the US and UK.
However, it seems quite possible (likely even) that Japan's continued war in China would prompt the US to issue an oil embargo at some point down the line, even without Japan invading southern Indochina (though this could potentially occur later than OTL). If an embargo were to happen, Japan would find itself trapped in a catch 22. Either they'd have to significantly scale down their war in China, or they will have to go to war to acquire resources.
As we know, IOTL they chose the second course of action, but in a situation where there isn't an active war in Europe, I'm unsure of what decision the Japanese leadership would make in the contingency of an embargo.
Sure, the Japanese leadership would not want to scale down the war in China and often had expectations untethered with reality, but it seems like it would take an extra leap of insanity to think a war with the Western Allies could end in anything but disaster when there isn't an active front in Europe that is diverting at least some of America and Britain's war resources elsewhere (and there's always a risk that a Soviet Union that isn't facing the Nazis can make a move in Manchuria).
Is there a limit to how much of a risk Japan would be willing to take if they were backed into a corner by the oil embargo?
Given these parameters, how will Japan proceed in the Pacific? Will Japan find themselves embroiled in a conflict with the Western Allies in the Pacific, or will Japan manage to avoid getting entangled in a larger conflict?
My intuition is that without an oil embargo, Japan would continue fighting a long war of attrition with China, and probably avoids getting into direct conflict with the US and UK.
However, it seems quite possible (likely even) that Japan's continued war in China would prompt the US to issue an oil embargo at some point down the line, even without Japan invading southern Indochina (though this could potentially occur later than OTL). If an embargo were to happen, Japan would find itself trapped in a catch 22. Either they'd have to significantly scale down their war in China, or they will have to go to war to acquire resources.
As we know, IOTL they chose the second course of action, but in a situation where there isn't an active war in Europe, I'm unsure of what decision the Japanese leadership would make in the contingency of an embargo.
Sure, the Japanese leadership would not want to scale down the war in China and often had expectations untethered with reality, but it seems like it would take an extra leap of insanity to think a war with the Western Allies could end in anything but disaster when there isn't an active front in Europe that is diverting at least some of America and Britain's war resources elsewhere (and there's always a risk that a Soviet Union that isn't facing the Nazis can make a move in Manchuria).
Is there a limit to how much of a risk Japan would be willing to take if they were backed into a corner by the oil embargo?