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While there are quite a few threads on what happens if war starts early or late, I cant seem to find much on what might have hapenned if Poland hadnt been the cause of war.

My POD is as follows.
As OTL, the British and French give Poland guarantees in spring 39. However Chamberlain is really against this, and really wants to find a way out of this if he can.
The invasion of Ploand occurs as OTL. However this time, Chamberlain manages to get the cabinet to agree they will only declare war if France does. France dithers. As a result, there is no ultimatum, and Hitler goes on to conquer Poland.

Britain and France would probably do something somewhat effectual , like sanctions (Chamberlain would have used up a LOT of political capital on Poland, the British cabinet wanted to fight), however we are now left with a divided Poland, and Germany notionally at least at peace.

So what is likely to happen next? The next war is actually Russian, the Winter War. This POD is likely to make this even more certain, as Satlin is going to see the west as completely ineffectual.

I can see a number of possibilities, but its difficult to decide which is more likely.

Britain and France intervene in Finland much as they planned to in OTL However there will obviously be questions of why not for Poland.
Now, if this happens, which side does Germany jump in on? Stabbing France while they are preoccupied is a nice idea, but would it be better ro actually ALLY with Britain and France against Russia - thus setting up Barbarossa in far better circumstances?

I'd be interested in opinions, I havent found much on this particular PoD, and it seems to have possibilities
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