No war after Poland

While there are quite a few threads on what happens if war starts early or late, I cant seem to find much on what might have hapenned if Poland hadnt been the cause of war.

My POD is as follows.
As OTL, the British and French give Poland guarantees in spring 39. However Chamberlain is really against this, and really wants to find a way out of this if he can.
The invasion of Ploand occurs as OTL. However this time, Chamberlain manages to get the cabinet to agree they will only declare war if France does. France dithers. As a result, there is no ultimatum, and Hitler goes on to conquer Poland.

Britain and France would probably do something somewhat effectual , like sanctions (Chamberlain would have used up a LOT of political capital on Poland, the British cabinet wanted to fight), however we are now left with a divided Poland, and Germany notionally at least at peace.

So what is likely to happen next? The next war is actually Russian, the Winter War. This POD is likely to make this even more certain, as Satlin is going to see the west as completely ineffectual.

I can see a number of possibilities, but its difficult to decide which is more likely.

Britain and France intervene in Finland much as they planned to in OTL However there will obviously be questions of why not for Poland.
Now, if this happens, which side does Germany jump in on? Stabbing France while they are preoccupied is a nice idea, but would it be better ro actually ALLY with Britain and France against Russia - thus setting up Barbarossa in far better circumstances?

I'd be interested in opinions, I havent found much on this particular PoD, and it seems to have possibilities
 
Well, it depends on if the French and British militaries are still mobilized or at least partially mobilized. If they are not prepared at all, then there really is not way that they can aid Finland. If they are prepared, then you will see them taking the route from Narvik through Sweden into Northern Finland. Some of these troops will be left along the route to place a leash upon Germany, which depends upon iron ore imports from Sweden which come by way of Narvik.

The Royal Air Force and the French Air Force, however, likely could change the situation overall; the Soviet Air Force, while large, was suprisingly ineffective until it changed it tactics by February. Therefore, it is likely that the SAF would have taken heavy casualties once the Allies had established themselves. The Soviet Army, often traveling in lines along simple roads, would have made tempting targets for Allied bombers. Therefore, one can assume that the Soviet Union would have been fought to a standstill.

Intervention was sanctioned by the League of Nations, so it should bring approval of such a war. Germany also could get overconfident and decide to launch Operation Barbarossa in 1941-1942, viewing the Soviet military as nothing more than a paper tiger.
 
Well, it depends on if the French and British militaries are still mobilized or at least partially mobilized. If they are not prepared at all, then there really is not way that they can aid Finland. If they are prepared, then you will see them taking the route from Narvik through Sweden into Northern Finland. Some of these troops will be left along the route to place a leash upon Germany, which depends upon iron ore imports from Sweden which come by way of Narvik.

The Royal Air Force and the French Air Force, however, likely could change the situation overall; the Soviet Air Force, while large, was suprisingly ineffective until it changed it tactics by February. Therefore, it is likely that the SAF would have taken heavy casualties once the Allies had established themselves. The Soviet Army, often traveling in lines along simple roads, would have made tempting targets for Allied bombers. Therefore, one can assume that the Soviet Union would have been fought to a standstill.

Intervention was sanctioned by the League of Nations, so it should bring approval of such a war. Germany also could get overconfident and decide to launch Operation Barbarossa in 1941-1942, viewing the Soviet military as nothing more than a paper tiger.

Since there would be no war, there would be no mobilisation in place.
However it took a long time to dither over Finland in OTL< plenty of time to mobilise if needed.

Would there have been bases for allied bombers? I dont think it was expected to allocate much in the way of air in OTL, due to the German threat - which wouldnt be there to the same extent, though obviously France at least is still keeping a very nervous eye west
 
Actually, war against Finland would be avoided without war over Poland, as Stalin would want to buy as much time as posssible knowing the war comes soon.


Because, not distracted in the west, the 3rd Reich would start offensive against the Soviet-Union in 1940. In total military strenght, the situation is even more in favour of the axis than IOTL 1941 but the smaller force would not make IOTL´s gains.
Germany is less mobilized than IOTL, since there aren´t even T-34s. The Soviet-Union occupies all of Iran.
Allies are less likely to intervene, as M-R pact is broken, attack against the SU means that Hitler doesn´t intend to attack west.

Not sure if the axis would launch all its forces toward Moscow, avoiding IOTL encirclement of Leningrad and seizing of Kiev. Without battle of France Hitler would be more likely to go for such scenario but again, winter war would be avoided thus there would be less certitudes over the war.



Scenario 1) Offensive toward Moscow almost result in a major disaster, German economy is fully mobilised or far more so as a result. Germany gain a large section of the european Soviet-Union and TTL cold war begin.


Scenario 2)

1940: Axis moves against both Kiev and Moscow, sucess in the case of Kiev but failure short of Moscow. Germany doesn´t fully mobilise.
1941: Campaign to seize the Caucase becomes mountain warfare, Dora cannons eventually open the way to Baku but Iranian oil is still available to the Soviet-Union. Axis offensive from Stalingrad to Saratov is beaten back.
1942: offensive uppon Moscow defeated, followed by Sovietic attack attempting to cut off axis forces in the caucase.
Germany fully mobilises but it will take a year or so before production fully quicks in, Soviet industrial production remain faster. By the end of the year, Minsk is taken back.
1943: Spring offensive see Red Army victory in the battle of Kiev, by late summer Romanian border is under artillery fire. In autumn, Red Army pushes into Poland before entering Romania and cutting off oil to the axis.
Axis production increases fast at this point and the Red Army is stopped from pushing into western Poland and Prussia. Sanctions against Germany are abolished and the UK start assisting Germany economically.
1944: Red Army enters the balkans, is stopped near the Italian and Austrian borders. In the latter half of the year, the Red Army crushes Hungarya, enters Prague, Berlin, Vienna and Hamburg.
1945: War is officially over in europe, central and eastern Germany is occupied, the west is an Anglo-French puppet. Northern Italy is occupied, Milan become its capital.
In the east, the Red Army divides nationalist China with Japan. Nuclear project begin in the Soviet-Union and is ongoing in Anglo-German-French alliance. 25 millions refugees from occupied Germany flee to western europe.
1950: Chinese communists decides to reunify China, allies declares war to Mao and in favour of Tojo to stop the spread of communism, new regime is put in power in socialist Germany.
1951: Sovietic A bomb detonated.
1952: Allied A bomb detonated.
1953: Chinese communists victorious, unify continental China.
1954: French use nuclear bombs to attack guerilla bases in Vietnam, the Chinese intervenes immediately, the Japanese wants revenge.
1955: The chinese communists invades India, where a revolution begin. The UK hit Pekin with a dozen bombs and threaten the further use of nuclear bombs.
1956: Sovietic H bomb hit London from Socialist Germany. France and the UK surrenders, faction in Germany rise to continue the war but is crushed with tactical nuclear weapons.
1957: Japanese-US alliance formed.
1961: President Lincoln Rockwell and founder of the Nationalist Technocracy Party of North America have his inauguration and vowes to assist Japan into reaching US level of industralisation and begin the reformation of the US itself into a major military power.
 
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