No Wall Street Crash

Practically, I don't think it's possible to avoid the Great Depression.

Not without an understanding of economics and the role the state needs to play in the economy that are very much a product of the Great Depression. There would be no political will to reign in the markets, to get off the gold standard or to keep the money supply reasonably stable.
 
Practically, I don't think it's possible to avoid the Great Depression.


I do because the 1929 Wall Street Crash wasn't the real cause of the worldwide Great Depression.

The real cause was the idiotic Smoot-Hawley Tariff.

The Crash alone would have given world financial markets a bad case of the jitters for a year or two and would have led to tighter controls on the financial markets. The Tariff and the trade retaliations it sparked, however, took what was "just" another financial "correction", albeit it a large one, as had been seen historically, and turned that correction into a severe contraction in overall worldwide trade. Just when the world economy needed more goods traded in order that national economies could grow their way out of financial difficulties, Smoot-Hawley trashed the entire system.

Current best estimates peg the drop in worldwide trade caused by the Act to be somewhere around 30 percent.

Making matters worse, the economists of the time knew that was exactly what Smoot-Hawley would do and begged Hoover to veto the bill. IIRC, even Henry Ford spoke against it. FDR even campaigned against it in 1932, but by then it was too late.

Delaying the Crash means delaying financial reforms, which simply means another crash is going to happen sometime. Avoiding the Crash means structural financial reforms were made earlier. Avoiding the Great Depression means avoiding the Smoot-Hawley Act or something like it.

Simply killing off those two backwoods boobs. Reed Smoot and Willis Hawely, won't do the trick either as they had strong support from plenty of other morons and a similar act with a different name would certainly appear. You'll either need Hoover to veto the Act or a better educated Congress. (And the latter is nearly ASB.)
 

elder.wyrm

Banned
Hoover was elected on the promise to protect small farmers against foreign competition. You're not going to get him to veto. His exact words were, 'Promises made, promises kept'. What principle, but unfortunately he took a principled stand on the wrong issue.

I'm actually just starting into a book by Thomas Rustici about the economic, and especially monetary, effects of the tariff. In a word, you're absolutely correct in that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff was the immediate cause of the Depression and, probably, the stock market crash. The way to avoid the tariff is to have it become dead-in-the-water in the Senate. There was a group of Senators who absolutely supported free trade and opposed tariffs in the 71st Senate. Their collective decision to give up their opposition in return for protection of their states' major products was what made the difference between the tariff bill being successful or not.

Coincidentally, this occurred on October 21st, 1929. Declines in the stock market began the next day, as the more astute traders noticed the brick wall their national train was heading towards and wisely decided to jump ship. Things culminated in the total crash on October 29th.

We need to try and find out who the Senators in question were, which probably involves me digging through my book. I'll work on it.

Once we know who they are, we need to find a way to get them to not doubt the truth of their convictions. If any increase of tariff rates can be forestalled, than the Great Depression is averted and the US experiences a minor recession in 1929 and early 1930, which it recovers from and which leads to a 'Roaring 30s' scenario. A few tail problems include the on-going agricultural depression, which lasted throughout the 20's and is likely to continue into the 30's. Likewise, Europe is going to have a tougher time of it than the US: Germany has been in recession since 1928 and will probably continue to be choleric through the early 30's.

Additionally, most of the world has jumped on the interwar gold exchange standard, so there's going to be some inherent instability until a more proper coin or bullion standard can be re-implemented. I imagine the 30's will be somewhat more stable than the 20's, but not completely so. Look forward to minor recessions every few years and a major one every decade or so until something better than a gold standard can be implemented.
 

elder.wyrm

Banned
I'm interested in outcomes here, guys. What happens if we have a 'Roaring 30's'? Prohibition is on the way out regardless of the Depression, I think.

What about Civil Rights? The first stirrings of a civil rights movement can be found in the 20's, a reaction to the outright racism of the Wilson administration and the revival of the KKK. In many ways, the movement was shelved for most people as the Depression and the World War took center-stage. Without a Depression, might we get movement towards black equality in the 30's? Will an alt-Brown v Topeka Board of Education happen in the late 30's or early 40's?

Can we topple Jim Crow a generation early ITTL?
 
I'm interested in outcomes here, guys. What happens if we have a 'Roaring 30's'? Prohibition is on the way out regardless of the Depression, I think.

What about Civil Rights? The first stirrings of a civil rights movement can be found in the 20's, a reaction to the outright racism of the Wilson administration and the revival of the KKK. In many ways, the movement was shelved for most people as the Depression and the World War took center-stage. Without a Depression, might we get movement towards black equality in the 30's? Will an alt-Brown v Topeka Board of Education happen in the late 30's or early 40's?

Can we topple Jim Crow a generation early ITTL?
Roaring '30s just isn't going to happen.

You're going to get a recession, and then the Dust Bowl is going to hit. Much of North America, at least, is going to be suffering a lot of pain.

OTOH, yes, there were a LOT of liberal advances in the '20s that just got totally snuffed out iOTL, which might not happen here. O, sure, they'd be scaled back, but not completely eradicated.

I'm thinking more in terms of social liberalization and women's rights, for instance. I don't know about Jim Crow laws. I do know my Grandma's medical class had the largest number of women until the '60s...

If there is no 'Great Depression', then when the various Naval Treaties expire, the US can afford to build their Pacific Bases up, which iOTL they didn't due to lack of money. A fortified Guam and Midway would make amazing changes in an alt-Pacific War. (I assume no Depression means no Hitler means no European War.)
 
I do because the 1929 Wall Street Crash wasn't the real cause of the worldwide Great Depression.

The real cause was the idiotic Smoot-Hawley Tariff.

The Crash alone would have given world financial markets a bad case of the jitters for a year or two and would have led to tighter controls on the financial markets. The Tariff and the trade retaliations it sparked, however, took what was "just" another financial "correction", albeit it a large one, as had been seen historically, and turned that correction into a severe contraction in overall worldwide trade.

True, but if the Crash hadn't been as bad as it was, Smoot-Hawley wouldn't have passed. The protectionism (of more than just the US), was supposed to be a 'cure' for the financial problems, although, as you pointed, out, it exacerbated them immensely.
 
We have mentioned the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, as well as the market crash of 1929 caused by bad investment practices. But there is a third factor that I think is almost as important: the steel industry had to cut back largely because the railroads had already saturated the United States. The timber bridges were already replaced with steel bridges and the auto and construction industries would not pick up the slack.

Get rid of the tariff and create a new demand for steel (Navy??) and the crash itself has much less effect on the common worker.
 
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