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Vladislaus II, King of Bohemia and Hungary, was oldest and least competent son of Casimir IV. Under his rule and then under rule of his retarded son Louis II Kingdom of Hungary was on the way to cathastrophe. Say, that Vladislaus dies as teenager in 1468. Thus after death of George of Podebrady not Vladislaus but his younger brother Casimir (OTL Saint Casimir) takes Czech throne (and likely in 1471 Casimir IV tries unsuccessfully to get Hungarian throne for third son John Albert, like he tried with second son IOTL). Saint Casimir (may not became saint ITTL) was described as the most intelligent son of Casimir IV, but he predeceased father, killed by tuberculosis. Casimir fell ill around 1480, so his illness could be butterflied away (and his piety, which resulted from the fact, that Casimir, knowing that he would not live long, cared more about his soul than body, could be butterflied away too, to some degree-he'd still be devout, but not that much). Death of Vladislaus and survival of Casimir would be pure gain for dynasty. What does it mean?
-Casimir would not treat Barbara Hohenzollern like Vladislaus did, so if he decided to marry her (politically alliance with Hohenzollerns, who were conflicted with Corvinus, is clever move) marriage would be consumated.
-John Albert is prepared for the role of his father's successor from younger age, he could even be married in his father's lifetime (to Kunigunde of Austria, who IOTL was candidate for Saint Casimir's wife). Thus being prepared from early age to rule Poland, he'd not be Polish candidate to Hungarian throne in 1490, likely Alexander would take that role, while Sigismund would inherit Lithuania.
-Casimir, not being idiot easy to manipulate (unlike Vladislaus) would not be so desired by Hungarian magnates. Also, Casimir would rather not oppose father's will. Jagiellons would not fight each other in 1490. They would cooperate against Habsburgs instead.
-Queen Beatrice would support Alexander likely (if he is Jagiellon candidate to the throne) hoping to remain Queen of Hungary, just with different King, but would he really need to marry her, having backing of father and brother?
@krieger @Fehérvári
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