Winner just gave the kiss of death to Belgium.
Yeah, what's happening in the last few months (the political deadlock after the elections) isn't really encouraging. On the other hand, it likely won't result in Belgium's dissolution.
One thing that made dissolution of Czechoslovakia so "easy" was the clear cut borders between Czechia and Slovakia. There has never really been any issue with where the borders would be drawn, because they were drawn centuries ago. Also, the fact that Czech and Slovak are so similar languages (99% mutually intelligible, which makes them de-facto dialects of one language) rendered the problem of ethnically mixed areas moot. In the end, about 300,000 Slovaks remained in the Czech Republic, while about 70,000 Czechs chose to stay in Slovakia. Except for some issues concerning pensions, there have never been any problem with that and these people aren't really considered as a "minority" - both countries recognize each other's languages as official so their speakers have the same legal status as any other citizen.
In Belgium, the situation is markedly different - Dutch and French are like 0% mutually intelligible
and there are areas which are ethnically very mixed (chiefly Brussels). It would be VEEEERY difficult to split Belgium into two viable states where no minorities would complicate things. Not to mention the fact that Wallonia would go bankrupt the very day it became independent. Czechoslovakia at the time of the split had VERY low debt, less then 10% of the GDP. In Belgium it is nearly 100%, and it's chiefly the Dutch-speaking part which keeps the country afloat. This is why I think that Belgium will survive. The difficulty of splitting it up is greater than the difficulty of negotiating a reasonable reform of the inner workings of the state. I believe the Flemish will demand less money redistribution between the communities, and the Walloons will have to learn to become more productive and less dependent on Flemish subsidies.