No USA ground troops in South Vietnam

Would South Vietnam still fall?

Yes.

OK, how it happens precisely would clearly different from the OTL. But without a constant and permanent presence of regular US troops, DRVN will feel bolder to launch more conventional attacks, which will have greater results. Many veterans of VPA say that the battles of 1972 failed to achieve its original goal (vastly expand their controlled territory) is due to USAF. With none of that in sight since 1965, I expect the progress for VPA will be easier.

Sure, it will be harder to convince a normal person about the threats of the foreign power, after all, there are not many US troops, so "invaders" part would be hard to sell. In addition, in OTL, a good portion of South Vietnam depends on those soldiers, with them not being here in the first place, it is clear that the South's economy must change drastically from the beginning. And if it fails to do so? Well, more propaganda ammunition for the North then.
 
By '63, the Viet Cong guerrillas without northern support were defeating parts of the South Vietnamese military.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ap_Bac

By '65, the VPA had mobilized to the point where they could attempt to cut RVN territory in half. The Battle of Ia Drang prevented this.

By '68, the NLF and the VPA had achieved enough penetration to launch the (tactically ill-conceived) Tet Offensive and that was during a phase of massive combat losses to the US armed forced. Imagine what they could've achieved without US intervention.
 
so... it seems likely that without massive US ground support, SV would lose the war rather quickly.
Then what?
Will the US just shrug and accept it? Or will they then commit large forces to retake it?
 
so... it seems likely that without massive US ground support, SV would lose the war rather quickly.
Then what?
Will the US just shrug and accept it? Or will they then commit large forces to retake it?

It could potential devolve into Korean War 2.0.

What the result of that would be, who knows? Especially if the mistakes of Korea are repeated. A USA that doesn't get involved in Vietnam would have to be pretty different than OTL.
 
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