No US Phillipines War

IOTL the Germans bought what was left of the Spanish East Indies and most of that was taken by Japan in World War One.

Is there any possibility of an independent Philippines declaring war on the German Empire in 1914? The intention would be to get some of the islands Spain sold to Germany back.

That possibility us nil albeit it could have happened as a riding the coat tails of a major power approach. The culture of the Philippines makes it unlikely the nation would have been able to put together the sort of military effort required on a solo basis. This is reflected in the manner in which Aguinaldo's resistance to the American invasion collapsed. This does not mean Filipinos are bad at soldiering. The Battle of Bataan was conducted largely by Filipino troops (65,000 of 75.000 survivors), and their performance can only be described as magnificent. My dad was there and he says not only did they humiliate the Japanese by holding on long past the Japanese goal of 6 weeks, but the Filipinos rendered invaluable assistance to those who went guerilla, at terrible risk to self and family. For insight on this, I recommend "They Fought Alone", John Keats, about Colonel Wendell Fertig and the guerilla campaign on Mindanao. The problem lies with the top down social and economic structure of Philippine society.
 
That possibility is nil albeit it could have happened as a riding the coat tails of a major power approach. The culture of the Philippines makes it unlikely the nation would have been able to put together the sort of military effort required on a solo basis. This is reflected in the manner in which Aguinaldo's resistance to the American invasion collapsed. This does not mean Filipinos are bad at soldiering. The Battle of Bataan was conducted largely by Filipino troops (65,000 of 75.000 survivors), and their performance can only be described as magnificent. My dad was there and he says not only did they humiliate the Japanese by holding on long past the Japanese goal of 6 weeks, but the Filipinos rendered invaluable assistance to those who went guerilla, at terrible risk to self and family. For insight on this, I recommend "They Fought Alone", John Keats, about Colonel Wendell Fertig and the guerilla campaign on Mindanao. The problem lies with the top down social and economic structure of Philippine society.
I thought so too, but for a different reason. That is the US Government wouldn't let them as it would drag the United States into World War one 2½ years earlier than OTL.
 

Driftless

Donor
IOTL the Germans bought what was left of the Spanish East Indies and most of that was taken by Japan in World War One.

Is there any possibility of an independent Philippines declaring war on the German Empire in 1914? The intention would be to get some of the islands Spain sold to Germany back.

I understand there is some cultural and ethnic connection with the Marianas and Carolines, but how strong? Several were quite distant. If the US did not seize the Philippines, might they opt to swoop up the other Spanish East Indies, as was done with Guam. Also, I would think only fifteen years into post-colonial nationhood; the Philippine Navy wouldn't be large or powerful, since they had no real warship building facilities or home built heavy armament works. Most warships of any size would need to be purchased and those funds would be needed for other infrastructure.

I'd think the Japanese would be the most likely to snap up those islands, just as they did historically.

IF the Philippines were to pull off a coup and acquire some or all of the islands, might they turn around and lease/sell them to one of the world powers? Yeah, I know that's playing like this is a board game.
 

Driftless

Donor
Another line of thought... Would a newly self-governing Philippines try to retain the Moro held portions of Mindanao and some other locations? Or would they cut bait, and focus their nation-building and development efforts on the other parts of the archipelago? the Spanish fought the Moros forever, and the US fought them for more than a decade, and the current Philippine government has had recurring bouts of rebellion to deal with.
 
Another line of thought... Would a newly self-governing Philippines try to retain the Moro held portions of Mindanao and some other locations? Or would they cut bait, and focus their nation-building and development efforts on the other parts of the archipelago? the Spanish fought the Moros forever, and the US fought them for more than a decade, and the current Philippine government has had recurring bouts of rebellion to deal with.

Current Philippines President Duterte is a thin skinned, prickly nationalist... ergo, anti-American.... even to the point of implementing social and economic policies
that are hardly democratic, yet are pleasing to the bulk of the people, and are having a huge negative impact on foreign investment. Some of that is scapegoating
for baseline conditions such as 40% chronic unemployment, some of it is being fed up with a rapidly deteriorating security environment. He has in effect declared war.
Will it hold together? Only if he can segregate the command authorities of the military and police forces from the traditional oligarchical families who have run the country
since the 1600's. The Moro's have had one basic foreign policy since forever. Whoever is in charge is the enemy.
 
With a US naval & air base on the Phillipines Japan still attacks and tries to force the cooperation from the PI government. If the US bases are gone, or only token establishments and the Asiatic fleet withdrawn from PI then Japan may attempt something akin to its entry into Thailand. Either way its unlikely MacAurther is CoS of the Phillipines Army, instead retired to a New York farm, or some civilian office supporting the mobilization, or maybe a Senator. So less push for a return to PI & a S Pacific offensive.
 

raharris1973

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President Quezon did that OTL.

I don't think what Quezon tried to do, basically begging everybody to treat his country as a neutral, while being completely ignored, is exactly what I'm proposing a Philippines with a real measure of sovereignty could do.
 

raharris1973

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A Philippines Republic really trying to stay neutral could tell the Americans their lease on bases was up, or could/would not clear US aircraft to take off or land.
 
As with nuetral Thailand, Portuguese Timor, and French Indochina China the Japanese would force cooperation and occupation from PI. No nuetrals in their view.
 

raharris1973

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As with nuetral Thailand, Portuguese Timor, and French Indochina China the Japanese would force cooperation and occupation from PI. No nuetrals in their view.

Thailand had to put up with Japanese forces occupying it, and so would an alternate Philippines. But Thailand got off WWII lighter than all its neighbors, especially the heavily contested Philippines.

And in fact the alternative I am proposing is that an independent Republic of the Philippines could be much more like Thailand in its wartime policy. Thailand fought the Japanese for half a day, all things being equal, they would have preferred the Japanese not to come. The Thai petitioned the Americans for a high level of military equipment support. When they did not get it and the Japanese moved to force the issue, the Thai allied to the Japanese.

The PI in OTL could not do the same thing because of its US Commonwealth status and its lack of an independently commanded army. A Republic of PI started in 1898 could have more options than Quezon had in OTL.
 
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