No US embargo against Japan

What if the US didnt prevent the flow of resources and especially oil to the Japanese controlled areas - would the Japanese still eventually started a war with the US ot would they have concentrated on China and the European colonies?
 
How are you going to get that to happen? The US started an embargo due to japanese actions and it is very unlikely the japanese are not going to perform those.
 
There needs to be massive changes in US politics for this to happen, America saw Japan as a rival for dominance in the Pacific and unless that view changes then Japan's actions in China are going to cause repercussions.
 
With no sanctions there will not be an attack on Pearl Harbor. The Japanese knew from the start going to wart with the US was a huge risk and only did so when they felt they had no choice.

Japan's top priority from start to finish was always China and their decision to widen the war was to a large degree a way to try and finish the war in China. Unless London is occupied by German troops I don't think Japan will risk a war with Britain. They moved into Indochina because France was powerless at that time. I could see them trying the same with the Dutch East Indies or at least compelling them to agree to very profitable trade terms. If this can be done withut involving the US or UK.

Would they strike north against the USSR in support of Germany? It's possible, to the Japanese army the Soviets were always the main threat. Given the beating they had received earlier though I think they would be cautious. If the Germans are again driven back from the gates of Moscow I would expect them to remain neutral. They weren't interested in pulling Hitler's chestnuts out of the fire. If the USSR appeared to be totally beaten they might declare war, otherwise not.

Essentially if there are no sanctions I believe the Japanese would concentrate on conquering China and avoid expanding the war.
 
Without the oil embargo the Japanese would not have faced the stark choice of withdrawing from conquered territory or watching their militray machine and their economy both collapse as oil ran out. So there is a decent chance the Japanese would not have attacked the US in 1941

It may be, though, that the entry of the Flying Tigers into combat in 1942 would have caused the Japanese to go to war with America absent an embargo. The first group of US fighter pilots and ground crew were already in Burma by December 1941. Not always noticed is that a second group of of volunteers assembling in the US consisted of BOMBER crews, and that they and their planes would be leaving US ports in December 1941.

FDR was either bold (my view) or reckless in being as unneutral as he could get away with being in 1941 vis a vis the Axis powers. I wonder how far the American Volunteer Group would have been allowed to go, given time, in taking the war to Japan in 1942. Would FDR have followed up shipments of Lockheed Hudsons and DB-7s in Decemebr 1941 with B-17s or B-24s in 1942? Was he going to push the Japanese until they attacked the US?
 
Japan would likely still have attacked the US around the same time, Japan would soon have run out of money to buy oil and need to strike south anyways to get it

If Japan strikes south it has to neutralize the Philippines, or rather the Japanese government thinks it has to, to do that it has to go to war with the USA, to have a chance they have to attack late 1941/early 1942
 
FDR was either bold (my view) or reckless in being as unneutral as he could get away with being in 1941 vis a vis the Axis powers. I wonder how far the American Volunteer Group would have been allowed to go, given time, in taking the war to Japan in 1942. Would FDR have followed up shipments of Lockheed Hudsons and DB-7s in Decemebr 1941 with B-17s or B-24s in 1942? Was he going to push the Japanese until they attacked the US?

Agreed on that. It didn't take a genius to see that war between the US and the Axis was a very good bet, they had repeatedly shown a complete lack of concern for international law or even treaties that they had themselves signed. Giving as much material support to the Allies as possible was a very shrewd move. Why have American soldiers get themselves killed when you can have Soviet, British, and Chinese soldiers do it in stead? Perhaps that is a bit of a callous view of it, but sometimes compassion has to take a back seat to pragmatism when you are a head of state.
 
Perhaps FDR's ultimatum does not require them to withdraw from Manchuria but from the *rest* of China, where all the horrible atrocities are taking place?

This ends the immediate war in China, but does not require Japan to give up their most valuable colonial possession. They might be more willing to go for that than OTL's ultimatum.
 
Perhaps FDR's ultimatum does not require them to withdraw from Manchuria but from the *rest* of China, where all the horrible atrocities are taking place?

This ends the immediate war in China, but does not require Japan to give up their most valuable colonial possession. They might be more willing to go for that than OTL's ultimatum.

That sounds plausible, I'd imagine though that it wouldn't be very popular in China and many Chinese would be waiting for a chance to reclaim Manchuria.
 
Perhaps FDR's ultimatum does not require them to withdraw from Manchuria but from the *rest* of China, where all the horrible atrocities are taking place?

This ends the immediate war in China, but does not require Japan to give up their most valuable colonial possession. They might be more willing to go for that than OTL's ultimatum.

The Japanese military wouldn't consider that as it would mean bowing to the United staes and losing too much face.

Now something that might work would be FDR offering to mediate between Japan and China with the understanding that Japan would be allowed to annex some of northern China in exchange for a withdrawal from the rest and certain trade concessions. FDR's thought process might be that Germany is the overwhelming priority and it's better to come to terms with Japan and avoid a crisis in the Pacific. It's unlikely but nor completely ASB, most political leaders strive to avoid two front wars.

Chiang would be adamantly against giving up any territory to Japan but FDR could tell him he can agree to mediation or give up all US aid.

It is a very unlikely scenario, but it would be a way to avoid Japan's joining the war with the Axis. The main roadblock is that FDR never felt he needed to really negotiate to Japan. He always sort of assumed he could force Japan completely out of China if he applied enough pressure.
 
While the idea of Roosevelt offering a deal may be plausible isn't it likely that the Japanese will just see it as a sign of weakness and just string the US along until they are ready to attack?
 
While the idea of Roosevelt offering a deal may be plausible isn't it likely that the Japanese will just see it as a sign of weakness and just string the US along until they are ready to attack?

Probably, but just as Japan never expected to conquer the United States they also realized they lacked the manpower and resources to conquer all of China. What they wanted was to annex a chunk of northern China and reduce the rest of it to an obedient puppet state. They wanted to make China their 'India.' They wanted access to its markets and have it supply them with food and resources.

The war in China had been dragging on since 1937 with more and more troops being sucked in. Chiang Kai-Shek refused to negotiate with the Japanese on the theory that even if militarily stronger Japan would not be able to afford the cost of occupying all of China and would eventually have to give up. Japan's reply was to keep pushing forward trying to compel Chiang to sue for peace.

With almost limitless manpower and military aid coming from the US and Britain China was in a position to continue the war indefinitely. The Japanese wanted a settlement (on their terms) not to try and overrun the rest of the country. If FDR had offered to mediate the situation Tokyo would have been relieved even if it made the US appear to be as timid and morally weak as they thought.
 
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