No Union of South Africa, what happens to the Transvaal and Orange Free State

Say the Union of South Africa isn't created

What would happen long term to Transvaal and Orange Free State

When would they gain independence

Would apartheid still happen
 
So, the Boer states are still conquered by Britain in 1901 but they are not incorporated into an over-arcing South Africa, but kept as colonies in their own name?
 
Just seems unlikely if the POD is post 2nd South African War/Boer War. However, would be interesting. I can't see London being happy with anything that smacks of pre war elites taking over so they'd no doubt need to make a lot changes anyway. The franchise/districting in Transvaal presumably could be redone so the non Afrikaner white population had either fair distribution/control but that probably doesn't work for OFS (I can't remember the population details there but would imagine skewed highly towards Afrikaner).
 
It'll be the Cape Colony that annexes Southwest Africa TTL.

As far as Democracy goes in the 20th Century...
The Cape will probably become more liberal over time.
Transvaal and the Orange Free State will likely embrace Apartheid like OTL.
Natal will likely go the Rhodesia route.

The Cape OTL wanted to protect its qualified franchise system. 15% of voters were black or mixed-race. Natal also wanted to protect its qualified franchise, though only 1% of their voters were black or mixed-race.

A more liberal cape would probably get away with directly annexing southwest Africa.
 
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