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WI Wallachia and Moldavia failed to become united?

Most Romanian history is written as a kind of prelude to what is seen as an inevitable (re)unification, but I think it's not that far-fetched to imagine a different evolution.

Version 1: The two states simply evolve distinct identities and choose to embrace those instead of a united Romanian nationality. Examples for nations which share almost everything (culture, language etc.) except their identities are plenty. It seems especially easy to do this as both Wallachia and Moldova have independent origins and have existed as separate states for centuries.

Version 2: Everything stays as OTL, but the Russians annex the entire Moldovan principality in the 1806-1812 war, not just Bessarabia. They were actively seeking to do this and it was only a matter of political negotiations that they didn't. This version might still end up in a grande unification though, if a WW1 plays out roughly as OTL. But suppose the opportunity is missed and you have the two principalities continuing on their own.

How likely do you think this is?
What are the consequences in the immediate region and in Europe?
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