No union of Romanian Principalities

WI Wallachia and Moldavia failed to become united?

Most Romanian history is written as a kind of prelude to what is seen as an inevitable (re)unification, but I think it's not that far-fetched to imagine a different evolution.

Version 1: The two states simply evolve distinct identities and choose to embrace those instead of a united Romanian nationality. Examples for nations which share almost everything (culture, language etc.) except their identities are plenty. It seems especially easy to do this as both Wallachia and Moldova have independent origins and have existed as separate states for centuries.

Version 2: Everything stays as OTL, but the Russians annex the entire Moldovan principality in the 1806-1812 war, not just Bessarabia. They were actively seeking to do this and it was only a matter of political negotiations that they didn't. This version might still end up in a grande unification though, if a WW1 plays out roughly as OTL. But suppose the opportunity is missed and you have the two principalities continuing on their own.

How likely do you think this is?
What are the consequences in the immediate region and in Europe?
 
Without a united Moldova & Wallachia there would be no state to lay claim to Transylvania, so the region would probably remain within the Hungarian Kingdom or become independent in case an utter WW defeat of Austro-Hungary gives the Romanian majority in Transylvania an opportunity... although without foreign support it's hard to imagine.
 
Without a united Moldova & Wallachia there would be no state to lay claim to Transylvania, so the region would probably remain within the Hungarian Kingdom or become independent in case an utter WW defeat of Austro-Hungary gives the Romanian majority in Transylvania an opportunity... although without foreign support it's hard to imagine.

Transylvanian independence after WW1 is possible. Although I am not sure what kind of butterflies might result from a separate Moldova and Wallachia.
 
Well first off what was the succession laws for the individual principalities? If the prince was appointed by the Sultan or semi elected then maybe we could end up with Wallachia ruled by a Habsburg and Moldavia ruled by a Romanov.I know that Austria was very intrested in acquiring the principalities so that could be a compromise. Also, even if Russia annexed the principalities, whats to stop it from being reversed at the Congress of Vienna three years later. After all, annexing territory is one thing, annexing a whole county is another.
 
Why oh why are we even discussing WWI with a POD during the Napoleonic Wars? :rolleyes: ;)

This is not that great of a 'butterfly' to radically alter the course of history. The (dis)unity of Wallachia and Moldavia would not change the basic power structure of Europe, nor the major trends. OTL the two countries united in 1859, so that's the real POD.

If Germany is united one way or another- and this is unlikely to be prevented or fostered by anything that happens in the two Romanian principalities- the likelihood of an eventual major European war becomes huge. It could happen earlier or sooner than OTL, it may be longer or shorter- but no way the great-power-struggle is just going to wind down without a clash.
 
Excuse me if I think that completely changing the shape of the Balkans region might have an affect on WWI. :rolleyes:

I'm with wolf_brother.

Even if "a" great war with Germany uniting (something that itself will notice changes in the Balkans because of the consequences in terms of Austria and Russia's relations, and they are far from irrelevant to events in what would become Germany) is probable, presenting it as "WWI" needs more thought put into it.

A lot more.
 
Something similar to OTL's WWI IS a possible outcome of a situation with no united Romania. However, this will have a significant impact on Austro-Russian relation and would influence the outcome of any Russo-Turkish war equivalent to the 1877 OTL's one. Maybe turning THAT war into a sort-of-general European War. Or maybe the general trends that avoided this IOTL would work ITTL anyway and the times of tensions culminating around 1885 with the Bulgarian Crisis goes closely enough to OTL.
At this point, however, I'd bet that any sort-of-independent Wallachia would start to feel like "Piedmont of Balkan Romans" or some other folly on those lines, and things won't end well. Or maybe not.
If all of Moldavia is annexed by Russia in 1812, Austria will feel Russian pressure much earlier and more intensely than OTL. The Holy Alliance might be weakened, possibly to the point of no Russian intervention in Hungary in 1849, AND/OR Austrian military intervention in the Crimean War.
And in this cases too... things won't end well.
 
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