If there is a failed conquest attempt, maybe it could push towards a centralization of the Visigothic kingdom, due to the perceived threat.
If the Visigoths keep their infighting, they may get conquered or turned into vassals by the Carolingians later on..
If the Visigoths keep their infighting, they may get conquered or turned into vassals by the Carolingians later on..
How likely would there be in a <insert whichever dynasty is in OTL Morocco at the time> invading Spain later on?
There's no guarantee that Visigothic Spain won't become unstable later.
That's a good guess, I think that if Visigothic Spain is not able to stabilize, it will inevitably be invaded
Either of those scenarios are really amazing!
A more "French" Iberia
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
So future options for Iberia could be
a) a later set of raids and possible conquests by Maghreb Muslims. Muslim conquerors would probably have to make their move by NLT 850 AD or 900 AD or have lost their chance forever
b) Continued Visigothic Kingdom of Kingdoms
c) A Carolingian Frankish conquest of Iberia (full or partial) or maybe Merovingian Frankish, but with or without Carolingians as powers behind the throne.
In the case of c), Frankish takeover, I wonder if the condition of Iberian Jews, persecuted by the Visigoths, would improve under Frankish rulership? I also wonder if it would distract the Franks from growth in the directions of Italy or Germany?
a) a later set of raids and possible conquests by Maghreb Muslims. Muslim conquerors would probably have to make their move by NLT 850 AD or 900 AD or have lost their chance forever
b) Continued Visigothic Kingdom of Kingdoms
c) A Carolingian Frankish conquest of Iberia (full or partial) or maybe Merovingian Frankish, but with or without Carolingians as powers behind the throne.
In the case of c), Frankish takeover, I wonder if the condition of Iberian Jews, persecuted by the Visigoths, would improve under Frankish rulership? I also wonder if it would distract the Franks from growth in the directions of Italy or Germany?
I think preventing the Reconquista would be great for the Iberian Jews
I personally guess that the Frankish would focus on the Iberian Peninsula, so we would see a lot less French intervention in Germany and Italy ITTL
Since the Franks apparently started persecuting the Jews anyway, I wouldn't be too quick to assume that a Frankish conquest would improve their situation...
Without a Muslim conquest of Visigothic Spain there never would've been a Battle of Tours / Poitiers in 732. Without Charles Martell having the clout of being the saviour of the occident his son Pepin the Short might not have been able to take the crown from Childeric II and thus Pepin's OTL sons Charles and Carloman, if their birth wouldn't have been butterflied away, might still have been merely Mayors of the Palace and not kings in their own right.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
I thought during Charlemagne's reign Jewish existence wasn't so bad in Western Europe, it was better than in Byzantium and about on par with the Caliphate, only to decline during the era of the Crusades. Whereas pre-conquest Visigothic Spain had notable anti-Jewish persecutions, perhaps coinciding with their conversion to Catholicism from Arianism (or preceding it also?), and the late Western and Eastern Roman Empires from Theodosius' time were kind of rough.
I was thinking more about the medium and long-term effects of being ruled by Franks, in the sense that the peace enjoyed by the Jews under Frankish rule was not going to last forever (for example, could end after the death of Charlemagne). Although really most of Europe has been horrible for Jews for most of history.
if iberia is ruled by franks the culture will be more similar to otl france (obviously with a mix with local influence). Depending on how the future kingdoms will be divided, Iberia and France can be considered the same country. with italy and germany as one kingdom (like otl) and the other being a junction of hispania and france
Wow thanks for this! No Umayyad conquest could mean that Charlemagne himself never exists!
Yeah that's true
I'm sure the eastern part of Iberia would be considered a French territory, culturally speaking
I wouldn't see conquest by the Franks as certain or even likely either. Conquering and controlling Iberia is no easy task. Muslim Spain almost came undone within a few decades of the conquest and it was really Abd al-Rahman's arrival and establishment of the Emirate of Cordoba that made it viable. The Franks face a major problem in the Pyrenees which make both campaining and reeinforcing already present gains difficult. Not to mention that the Basque territories and Aquitane proved resitant to Frankish rule for a long time making pacification of these areas a priority. Plus even the territories they did conquer in OTL took years and major force of arms to accomplish.
Taking the whole of Iberia could take years and the Franks had other fronts to worry about. Their Kingdom was already approaching its territorial limits and adding an area larger than France would not help. Thats if they can even control it, the Spanish March was already falling apart a year after Charlemange's death. Plus no Muslim Conquest and subsequent raids means one reason for intervention removed. The second Iberia Campaign of 792/793, which brought the first real gains in northern Spain, was conducted in response to Muslim raids. Rebellious Visigothic nobles could still provide an excuse but its far less certain. And all that is only in a scenario where the Franks actually succeed in conquering the land.
Taking the whole of Iberia could take years and the Franks had other fronts to worry about. Their Kingdom was already approaching its territorial limits and adding an area larger than France would not help. Thats if they can even control it, the Spanish March was already falling apart a year after Charlemange's death. Plus no Muslim Conquest and subsequent raids means one reason for intervention removed. The second Iberia Campaign of 792/793, which brought the first real gains in northern Spain, was conducted in response to Muslim raids. Rebellious Visigothic nobles could still provide an excuse but its far less certain. And all that is only in a scenario where the Franks actually succeed in conquering the land.
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To give smth for the prompt it might have different repurcussions. Westward expansion was not as much driven by the Umayyads themselves as it was by local warlords. The attention of the Caliphs was still on Anatolia and internal matters. Iberia was seen as a far off frontier province and almost abandoned by the Calipahte in OTL. Overall it won't change the fate of the dynasty though. The factors leading to the Abbasid Revolution are present with or without Iberia. What would impact the Islamic World is the absence of Al-Andalus and the cultural and scientific contributions it made. While these could occur in other environments, there is a definite impact here.
As for Spain it changes a lot. While a conquest by a Berber Dynasty from northern Africa later down the line is not impossible, it would be very different from OTL. For Spain there would be no major North-South divide, no Asturias and its successors, no Reconquista and all it brought with it. Southern Spain could still emerge as a frontline against muslim realms in northern Africa but it would be a very different situation. The future of the Visigothic Kingdom is uncertain. It was weakened at the time of the conquest and succession struggles as well as battles between Kings and nobles would continue. Really it is open how it plays out. From successful centralization after a century long fight to a break-up into multiple duchies and kingdoms ala the Taifa Era of Al-Andalus and everything in between, anything is possible.
I think the most probable future for a Visigothic Iberia would be a kind of decentralization and breaking down of the Visigothic power structure as time goes on. Now, here somekind of good statesman either originates (or emigrates, like happened OTL with the Portuguese and Castillian royal houses) and establishes some kind of order, or you see the natural breakdown of such a large, continous territory. I would put my money on the first one, with Iberia leaving behind the "Visigothic" identity and moving towards more Hispanic ones, like what happened OTL.