No U.S. Involvement in World War I = No World War II?


If you had actually read treads on this subject, you would have seen that predictions similar your anti-Keiserreich rant have been previousely refuted. About 4000 times on an x number of treads.

And frankly, I resent your claim that everyone thinks a CP victory world would become a utopia, since there are much more people constantly claiming a CP victory would yield a terribble dystopia dominated by a near-Nazi Germany that would commit genocide on a whim. Nobody but the freashest noobs think that any sort of utopia is possibble. What CP fans do believe is that a CP victory would have been followed by a TL better then ours (NO WW2!!!), which is a sad fact for all Germanophobes everywhere.
 
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If Italy is still with the Entente, then the war probably lasts into late 1918-ish. AH gets Venetia back, Germany nabs Somalialand, and the Ottomans retake Libya along with Egypt, Cyprus, and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula from Britain.

If Italy joins the CPs, it gets Nice, Savoy, Malta, Corsica, Tunisia, French and British Somalialand, and probably something in south-central Africa (Mozambique, if Portugal still joins the Entente?). Butterflies might get more countries to join the CP, with Sweden looking like the most likely candidate after being promised Finland. Belgium would be a German puppet, and Luxembourg would probably be annexed outright. Serbia and Montenegro would be Italo-Austrian puppets. Serbian Macedonia would go to Bulgaria.
 
If Italy is still with the Entente, then the war probably lasts into late 1918-ish. AH gets Venetia back, Germany nabs Somalialand, and the Ottomans retake Libya along with Egypt, Cyprus, and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula from Britain

Why would AH *want* Venetia? It's just another volatile element mixed into an already boiling cauldron; it's just going to make Italy mad and give them *yet another* unruly border province.
 
That depends entirely on when/how the Central Powers win World War I; you seem be assuming that it would be in late 1918. If it is a CP victory in 1916 as wiking posits, then the Habsburgs and Ottomans are going to be in much better shape.

A strict neutrality US would certainly hurt the Entente war effort; almost certainly in World War I and arguably in World War II us economic and industrial aid to the Entente/Allies was more important than any battlefield contributions by American troops.

If the CP win prior to Allenby's last offensive, the Ottomans will be fine, although there will be a mess in the Arab territories due to wartime privation and oppression there. Probably greater autonomy will have to be granted, but then the Young Turks over-centralized so that's probably inevitable anyway.

If the victory is after Allenby's last offensive, then there will be problems - but I would think if the Entente was losing, there'd be no Allenby offensive, since the troops would be required elsewhere.

Anyway, the Ottoman Empire is quite a bit different than the Hapsburg, in that nationalism was nowhere near as developed and had a competing ideology (Islamic unity) to hold it together. The greatest danger to the empire was Turkish nationalism, which would be set back by a CP victory.
 
Why would they need to occupy Austria-Hungary? If Galicia is hived off to join a puppet Poland, then the Austrian half has a German majority, and may even want to join Germany, while the Magyars are strong enough to keep the Hungarian section under control.

But that's not the case. The whole reason the Hungarians were willing to be in the dual monarchy was that they did need it to keep control over their half. Without it, they won't be able to control Croatia and Romanian designs on Transylvania. If A-H splits up, it will be ugly. Probably not as bad a OTL just because Germany is right there to contain the problem, but even in a CP-victory world, Germany has some serious problems of it's own.

As to getting rid of the Bolsheviks, Germany doesn't necessarily need to, as long as she prevents Russia (Bolshevik or not) from reuniting as a major power. A Bolshevik state around Petrograd and Moscow, flanked by White ones in Siberia, Ukraine and Caucasus, would be fine, and could probably be maintained without the need for permanent military occupation.

There's not a lot Germany can do to prevent the Reds from reabsorbing Siberia, and even a Russia shorn of Bylorussia and Ukraine is still pretty formidable. And the Germans will have to be extremely brutal to break resistance movements against their puppet states - and even that might not be possible, given the state Germany was in.

That's presuming a late victory. If it's earlier, things are rosier - but then that's also the case if the Entente wins earlier...
 
If you had actually read treads on this subject, you would have seen that predictions similar your anti-Keiserreich rant have been previousely refuted. About 4000 times on an x number of treads.

And frankly, I resent your claim that everyone thinks a CP victory world would become a utopia, since there are much more people constantly claiming a CP victory would yield a terribble dystopia dominated by a near-Nazi Germany that would commit genocide on a whim. Nobody but the freashest noobs think that any sort of utopia is possibble. What CP fans do believe is that a CP victory would have been followed by a TL better then ours (NO WW2!!!), which is a sad fact for all Germanophobes everywhere.

I don't think it's possible to make any such claim. You have no way of knowing if a CP victory would have led to a better or worse situation. It can always be worse, and you have no idea what the German Empire may have become. It wasn't as wobbly as the Russian, but there were a lot of problems, and a Communist revolution in Germany - or a fascist one - could be just as ugly or more so than the Third Reich.

The idea that a CP victory would be preferable to an Entente one seems rather indefensible. In the short term it would be worse, and in the long term there's no way to predict.
 
Almost everybody assumes that post ww1 europe with a german victory would mean a much beter world. But it wouldnt. Germany ran a very brutal colonial empire and had plans for treaties harsher than brest litovsk for France and Britain.


Wait how exactly is Germany going to impose any treaty on Britain. This isn't 1940 where bombs can level cities. The Royal Navy reins supreme. Germany's colonial empire is basically conquered. Germany is in no position to force any terms on the UK.
 
I don't think it's possible to make any such claim. You have no way of knowing if a CP victory would have led to a better or worse situation. It can always be worse, and you have no idea what the German Empire may have become. It wasn't as wobbly as the Russian, but there were a lot of problems, and a Communist revolution in Germany - or a fascist one - could be just as ugly or more so than the Third Reich.

The idea that a CP victory would be preferable to an Entente one seems rather indefensible. In the short term it would be worse, and in the long term there's no way to predict.

Of course, there is no way we can predict what the German Empire would become, however, as earlier users have remarked, the chances of a victorious Germany morphing into anything near the Nazis are extremely small, and that alone would make a CP victory world a better one, though of course far from a utopia.

AH probably does end up breaking up regardless of the outcome, for reasons previously stated. The nationalist movements were far to powerful to be controlled and there will be some short term nastiness that will be kept in check by the Germans before they settle back into the corresponding nation states.

The Ottomans in my mind are the Great Power that if they manage to stay together reasonably intact, would benefit the most in the long run, as the Middle East oil alone would give them 40% of the entire world's crude oil reserves which of course would enhance their political and strategic position entirely. If they manage to secure the nearby Persian oil fields in the process that'll be icing on the cake. Oil will be the medicine which would revitalize the Ottoman Empire to its former heights. As for the Armenians and the Greeks... well, lets not go there...

Russia probably ends up remaining in a state of chaos for several years after WWI, with either a White or Red Russia re-emerging while several nation states form from the peripheries. It would be far more likely to morph into a more extremist ideology, either White or Red, and would be a prime candidate to start TTL's WWII once it regains its strength.

As Britain and France were the world's largest colonial powers, colonialism itself might take a hit, as the native populations no longer see these former powers with the same amount of fear and awe and might use this opportunity to rebel and perhaps even throw off the colonial yoke. Even if the desire was there, a loss would leave them lacking the financial means to put down the rebellions if they occur... Of course, if revolts happen in British and French colonies they may well happen in others as well.

Japan will play the scavenger in all this. If Russia continues to be caught in civil war Japan might try and take advantage of the situation in the far east and take the ports. They'll likely get off scott free, as the Germans wouldn't want to waste the time and effort necessary to enforce some kind treaty upon them.

China, who knows what happens to China. They'll probably remain a warlord chaos until sometime in the 30s, but it likely won't be a red revolution if there is no Soviet Russia but rather a Nationalist China.

The US continues on its merry way, dominating the Americas under its sphere of influence unmolested indefinitely.
 
The Ottomans in my mind are the Great Power that if they manage to stay together reasonably intact, would benefit the most in the long run, as the Middle East oil alone would give them 40% of the entire world's crude oil reserves which of course would enhance their political and strategic position entirely. If they manage to secure the nearby Persian oil fields in the process that'll be icing on the cake. Oil will be the medicine which would revitalize the Ottoman Empire to its former heights. As for the Armenians and the Greeks... well, lets not go there...

When has oil ever made a poor country rich? Of course it will give them a strong strategic position, and the Ottomans (unlike the successor states) have a significant non-oil economy to call upon, but there is still a high likelihood of Dutch disease breaking out and leading to excessive focus on that part of their economy. Plus, all that oil means they'll be a hugely important ally of any European power blocks (and later China, as it industrializes), which is likely to lead to even more unwanted attention than in the 19th century and attempts to carve off those oil regions so as to be easily dominated. The effects are likely to be much more equivocal for everyone involved.
 
The whole reason the Hungarians were willing to be in the dual monarchy was that they did need it to keep control over their half. Without it, they won't be able to control Croatia and Romanian designs on Transylvania.

They couldn't resist Serbia and Rumania if the latter were backed by Russia - but of course in this TL those have all been stomped.

As I understand it, they opted for partnership with Austria for two main reasons

a] The alternative was a much more unequal partnership with Germany - a Germany which would probably include Austria.

b] They would otherwise have to pay the full cost of maintaining their own armed forces etc. Iirc, they pretty consistently paid a good deal less than their fair share of the common finances.

These reasons are sound enough that I pretty strongly suspect that in the end the Magyars will stick with the status quo, so that A/H doesn't break up at all (though as discussed elsewhere it may lose Galicia, that by itself wouldn't be fatal). Note also that the biggest minority, the South Slavs, are split about evenly between Serbs and Croats, who hate each other, so probably won't make common cause.


There's not a lot Germany can do to prevent the Reds from reabsorbing Siberia, and even a Russia shorn of Bylorussia and Ukraine is still pretty formidable....

If the Germans are occupying Estonia etc they are within spitting distance of Petrograd. I'd have thought that if the Reds resumed the offensive against Kolchak, they could be brought to heel by a threat in that quarter, as in Feb 1919 the Germans were ordered out of Posen by a similar threat on the Rhine.
 
Wait how exactly is Germany going to impose any treaty on Britain. This isn't 1940 where bombs can level cities. The Royal Navy reins supreme. Germany's colonial empire is basically conquered. Germany is in no position to force any terms on the UK.


The RN isn't as supreme as in WW2. The German fleet is about two-thirds its size, compared to less that one-third for the WW2 Kriegsmarine[1]. Iirc, the Admiralty got into quite a panic just about one ship, the Bismarck, getting out into the Atlantic. In WW1, once France fell and Germany could use her Atlantic ports, there could be several "Bismarcks" on the loose.

Also, there's the u-boat war. Even if it doesn't go unrestricted, it's still getting pretty bad. OTL, sinkings roughly tripled over the course of 1916, from 123,141 gross tons in Dec 1915 to 368,521 in Jan 1917, the final month before adoption of USW. Had that level continued through the year, sinkings in 1917 would have been around 4.4 million tons. Admittedly this is 28% down on the 6,235,878 of OTL, but it still exceeds the combined figures for 1914, 1915 and 1916. It could also increase if Germany obtains the use of French ports

These losses might be borne if the war appeared to be going somewhere, but once our Continental allies fold, the sacrifice is going to appear futile. Remember that we have lost at least half a million dead on the Continent - all in vain now. What's that going to do to morale? Will merchant seamen be willing to go on being torpedoed (many of them several times over) just to hang on to some not very valuable German colonies - or even to prevent Nigeria being ceded to Germany or Egypt to Turkey? Possible, but I'm inclined to doubt it.

The Germans might not be able to dictate a peace to Britain, a la Versailles, but our bargaining position would not be good.


[1] The 1935 Naval Treaty allowed Germay a fleet one-third the size of Britain's, but they never got round to building even to that level.
 

Edison

Banned
Of course, there is no way we can predict what the German Empire would become, however, as earlier users have remarked, the chances of a victorious Germany morphing into anything near the Nazis are extremely small
Considering the fact that Nazis actually adopted Ober Ost plans for Eastern Europe in their Lebensraum projects and Ludendorff was one of their early political icons and leaders that argument seems somewhat unconvincing.

Gas chambers and death camps-that seems not likely in CP victory scenario, but ethnic cleansing, creating enemies out of ethnic groups to divert attention from trouble at home, ruthless economical exploitation, forced labour for other nations is possible(the latter two were already in part implemented during the war).

Controlling Central and Eastern Europe, along with trying to keep A-H together, or establish stability in it in break up aftermath would divert considerable German resources and prolong German military presence in the East, influencing soldiers with Bolshevik and anarchist ideology so you could see increased threat of communist revolution and a fascist coup to stop it by Junkers, aristocrats and military of Prussia in German Empire.

Once Poland is detached from Russia, the Galician Poles will want to join it even if its independence is limited. If they go into opposition in the Reichsrat, the Austrian half of the Monarchy becomes ungovernable, so in the end they probably get their way
If Poles are given independence then others will want it too. If Poles are given Galicia then Ukrainians will hate the CP, if Ukrainians get the Galicia Poles hate the CP, if it is divided Ukrainians and Poles hate CP and each other forcing Germany to control them.

So removing Galicia from AH(which is bound to happen) will create all sorts of problem and destabilize the region.


About Mitteleuropa countries not being able to unite-the same could be said about inability of Franco-German friendship;) If German Empire is oppressive enough and arrogant enough in its nationalism(now that can't happen of course;)) movements like neoslavism might regain popularity and nationalists from all sides could overcome their hostility in face of a greater threat.

Plus really they don't need to be united to be a threat-discriminated and discontent population will be a great pool of revolutionaries, spies, strikers for all factions interested in defeating CP.

About Ukraine-the Ukrainian national movement was quite strong in its beliefs and wouldn't tolerate oppressive measures or discrimination by Germany. If proposed plans for control of Ukraine will go on they likely will turn against them. Also don't underestimate the pro-Russian movement in Ukraine.

About Poland-sure the pilsudczycy faction might not see any choice, but the endecja can be easily wooed by promises of regaining of Polish-inhabited areas of Silesia, Poznan, Pomorze and East Prussia made by Russian Empire. They might be not as large as areas lost in the East, but more unified ethnically and far more prosperous. I don't believe the German military and officials (which were to de facto rule Poland) often compromised out of German nationalists would treat the Polish population well enough to calm down resentment towards economic exploitation and loss of Polish territories in the East and the West. As to Habsburg puppet-monarchy in Poland was hugely unpopular in general and monarchists were a exotic minority made out of tiny fraction of land owners, clergy and obsolete aristocracy.


In general the German Empire will need to committ a considerable military forces to occupy the Mitteleuropa, stabilize AH region. Even if it would manage to stabilize the military situation in long term it would need huge economic resources to end the economic crisis in the region that happened due to war and military operations on this territory(if it would be willing to, which is far less likely than economic exploitation for solely the benefit of Germany).
Thus its power and position will be weakened by the comittments to the Empire Germany will want to create. In that situation all former Entente powers can cooperate with each other to reverse this situation. particularly Russian Empire has most interest in this, and no matter if it will be Communist or White Russia it will be formidable enough to do it with British and French backing.
 
If Poles are given independence then others will want it too. If Poles are given Galicia then Ukrainians will hate the CP, if Ukrainians get the Galicia Poles hate the CP, if it is divided Ukrainians and Poles hate CP and each other forcing Germany to control them.

So removing Galicia from AH(which is bound to happen) will create all sorts of problem and destabilize the region.


Wanting independence is not getting it.

The Kurds and Armenians wanted independence from Turkey. They didn't get it, yet Turkey is one of the more stable parts of the ME. It's the places that did separate that are the problem.

The Croats would have liked to be independent, but had to settle for exchanging second-class citizenship in Hungary for second-class citizenship in Yugoslavia. When they (and others) finally got independence, the result was an even bigger mess than when they were denied it.

If Galicia is allowed to separate, who follows? The Czechs might daydream about it, but they know perfectly well that if Austria collapses, they will promptly get gobbled up by Germany. Serbs and Croats together might have a chance, but dislike each other too much for that to ever happen. The others are too weak to count. Looks to me like the Empire survives by default.

As for Poland and Ukraine, the Poles will never be very loyal to the CP. They want Posen and West Prussia, which Germany will never give up. So the best bet for Germany is to favour the Ukraine. As long as Germany and Ukraine are in reasonable accord, it doesn't matter too much what the Poles want.
 

Edison

Banned
Wanting independence is not getting it.
Nobody says it is.
But wanting independence is "making trouble".
The Czechs might daydream about it, but they know perfectly well that if Austria collapses, they will promptly get gobbled up by Germany.
Only if Germany still exists as a power. Historically Czechs were very supportive of Russian Empire and later Soviet Union, I do not expect this to change in CP victory scenario with the threat of German nationalism present.
They will probably be useful in creating spy networks, sabotage, and any other similiar operations within CP territory.
Serbs and Croats together might have a chance, but dislike each other too much for that to ever happen.
I am not sure about Croats.
But they don't need mutual support, and who is going to stop them-the AH army was unable to bring order in the country, they would have to depend on Germany for security. If AH survives it will be a corpse kept alive by transfusion of German soldiers. If that happens the German nationalists could try to dissolve it anyway and annex their claims in it.

As for Poland and Ukraine, the Poles will never be very loyal to the CP.
True. At the time Polish population in Central and Eastern Europe was around 30 million. That gives any opponents of CP a very large population base to exploit.
As long as Germany and Ukraine are in reasonable accord, it doesn't matter too much what the Poles want.
From what I recall the authorities installed by Germans in Ukraine were barely popular, there were a lot of movements in the Ukraine that would oppose the rule of German Empire(anarchists, Bolsheviks), plus the very strong pro-Russian movement. If Germans go on with their plan to exploit economically Ukraine, than the Ukrainian nationalists will likely be bold enough to oppose them, even with violence.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
Considering the fact that Nazis actually adopted Ober Ost plans for Eastern Europe in their Lebensraum projects and Ludendorff was one of their early political icons and leaders that argument seems somewhat unconvincing.

Gas chambers and death camps-that seems not likely in CP victory scenario, but ethnic cleansing, creating enemies out of ethnic groups to divert attention from trouble at home, ruthless economical exploitation, forced labour for other nations is possible(the latter two were already in part implemented during the war).

Controlling Central and Eastern Europe, along with trying to keep A-H together, or establish stability in it in break up aftermath would divert considerable German resources and prolong German military presence in the East, influencing soldiers with Bolshevik and anarchist ideology so you could see increased threat of communist revolution and a fascist coup to stop it by Junkers, aristocrats and military of Prussia in German Empire.

If Poles are given independence then others will want it too. If Poles are given Galicia then Ukrainians will hate the CP, if Ukrainians get the Galicia Poles hate the CP, if it is divided Ukrainians and Poles hate CP and each other forcing Germany to control them.

So removing Galicia from AH(which is bound to happen) will create all sorts of problem and destabilize the region.


About Mitteleuropa countries not being able to unite-the same could be said about inability of Franco-German friendship;) If German Empire is oppressive enough and arrogant enough in its nationalism(now that can't happen of course;)) movements like neoslavism might regain popularity and nationalists from all sides could overcome their hostility in face of a greater threat.

Plus really they don't need to be united to be a threat-discriminated and discontent population will be a great pool of revolutionaries, spies, strikers for all factions interested in defeating CP.

About Ukraine-the Ukrainian national movement was quite strong in its beliefs and wouldn't tolerate oppressive measures or discrimination by Germany. If proposed plans for control of Ukraine will go on they likely will turn against them. Also don't underestimate the pro-Russian movement in Ukraine.

About Poland-sure the pilsudczycy faction might not see any choice, but the endecja can be easily wooed by promises of regaining of Polish-inhabited areas of Silesia, Poznan, Pomorze and East Prussia made by Russian Empire. They might be not as large as areas lost in the East, but more unified ethnically and far more prosperous. I don't believe the German military and officials (which were to de facto rule Poland) often compromised out of German nationalists would treat the Polish population well enough to calm down resentment towards economic exploitation and loss of Polish territories in the East and the West. As to Habsburg puppet-monarchy in Poland was hugely unpopular in general and monarchists were a exotic minority made out of tiny fraction of land owners, clergy and obsolete aristocracy.


In general the German Empire will need to committ a considerable military forces to occupy the Mitteleuropa, stabilize AH region. Even if it would manage to stabilize the military situation in long term it would need huge economic resources to end the economic crisis in the region that happened due to war and military operations on this territory(if it would be willing to, which is far less likely than economic exploitation for solely the benefit of Germany).
Thus its power and position will be weakened by the comittments to the Empire Germany will want to create. In that situation all former Entente powers can cooperate with each other to reverse this situation. particularly Russian Empire has most interest in this, and no matter if it will be Communist or White Russia it will be formidable enough to do it with British and French backing.


Hurgan! It's been so long! How goes your crusade of ignoring history in the name of blind nationalism?
 

Edison

Banned
The Ideological Origins of Nazi Imperialism by Woodruff D. Smith describes in detail how ideologies and beliefs of German Empire created Nazis.
 
Hurgan Are you?

Well, like always Hurgan come back to be banned(i know Hurgan for another forum, by a comment mine about the polish oportunist), Again, Here when the CP Won, the Poles will not be better than a Puppet of the CP(Of Germany with an Hansburg King, that was the original plan), and be happy with that, in the worse scenario you will see a smaller Poland in favor of Lithuania(who was more neutral and happy of not being russian anylonger), and the Poles in Prussia areas, before the defeat of Deutchland, doesn't was to be integrate in the Kingdom of Poland, by the Reason of not becoming part of a poorer state, the Poles ultranationalist(like you Hurgan) only born thanks to both war, and the oportunist of a military elite... who doesn't exist here

Like Always, the Germanphobia is high, by several reason(both angloimperialism, the poles and french hooligans, etc) by few people use logic like wiking,mikestone 8, Bmao and AHP.

And the topic was complete desviate, the main theme is the lack of American Intervention will not make possible an WW2, the answer to that: Depends...

If we have an slatemate peace post B-L treaty, is like 80% than the french and soviets whan revenge, and the butterfliies galore

If a CP marginal victory is less likely(again how the peace is negotiate) is more like only a 10% but still a chance....

If Entente Marginal Victory.... more likely, again depends...

that are my opinion, i only hove to Ian to close his theart if Hurgan mk 10 is still rant about polish artificial superiority

Att

Nivek von Beldo

P.S. AHP, you're a muslim?
 

Edison

Banned
Well, like always Hurgan come back to be banned(i know Hurgan for another forum, by a comment mine about the polish oportunist), Again, Here when the CP Won, the Poles will not be better than a Puppet of the CP(Of Germany with an Hansburg King, that was the original plan), and be happy with that, in the worse scenario you will see a smaller Poland in favor of Lithuania(who was more neutral and happy of not being russian anylonger), and the Poles in Prussia areas, before the defeat of Deutchland, doesn't was to be integrate in the Kingdom of Poland, by the Reason of not becoming part of a poorer state, the Poles ultranationalist(like you Hurgan) only born thanks to both war, and the oportunist of a military elite... who doesn't exist here
You might try rewriting this-it barely makes sense.

Two points.
Habsburg candidate was abandonded by Austria in OTL, a German prince was to be selected. It happened later in the war as AH became dependent on German Empire. Polish population resented monarchist ideas.
The Poles in Poznan and Silesia actually started uprisings against Germany-to which they prepared well before the war even started.
 
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