No Tripartite Pact?

I've been reading Fatherland and was asked by my brother whether I thought that a victorious Nazi Germany would have initiated a Cold War. That is not the purpose of this thread, which is to question whether the signing of the Tripartite Pact between Japan, Germany and Italy in 1940 could be stopped. I was thinking of having a world where the Germans retain their support of the KMT regime in China and made sanctions against the Japanese instead of seeking an alliance. In such a world I would imagine that there would be no reason for Nazi Germany to declare war on the USA. Let me know your thoughts on this.
 
I've been reading Fatherland and was asked by my brother whether I thought that a victorious Nazi Germany would have initiated a Cold War. That is not the purpose of this thread, which is to question whether the signing of the Tripartite Pact between Japan, Germany and Italy in 1940 could be stopped. I was thinking of having a world where the Germans retain their support of the KMT regime in China and made sanctions against the Japanese instead of seeking an alliance.
If you don't mind, I'll quote what I said one of the other times the idea of Nazi Germany allying with China instead of Militaristic Japan came up on here:

mcdo said:
This question comes up pretty often on here. It is possible, though difficult, to arrange such a scenario. To my mind, though, the principle challange to a Nazi German and Nationalist Chinese alliance is not the problems of preventing the Militarist takeover of Japan and the steering of Japan into a total war with China, nor the question of how much Nazi Germany could really aid Chinese military modernization at a time when they desperately need every resource they can get to build up their own military at home and when any aid they tried to send could be easily cut off by either the British or the Japanese, as fundamental as these issues are. No, the biggest problem is, to be frank, the doubtful value of 1930s China as a military ally to Germany.

It is interesting to note that, when the Nazi leadership talked about the alliance with Militarist Japan prior to the launching of war upon the USSR, they almost exclusively spoke of her navy. Not only was the IJN formidable, Japan was also the only major naval power that might conceivably be turned against Britain and the US. Germany was, of course, aware that much of the reason for their defeat in the first war was the huge amount of material and, later, soldiers brought to Europe from North America. Although Germany concocted some plans to build up a large navy, the leadership was, in the end, aware that their nation was primarily a continental power. Of course, no Japanese warships would ever be deployed in the North Atlantic, but any naval war between Militarist Japan and the US and UK, or even the threat of such, would necessarily tie down a large amount of naval resources that would otherwise be used against Germany and Italy. Japan was valuable as an ally for this reason, and because they could threaten Western colonial holdings in Asia. In contrast, the China of this time period has virtually no ability to project power outside of its own borders, and none at all to either tie down foreign naval forces or to threaten island colonies like the DEI. Therefore, Nazi Germany has no reason to prefer an alliance with China over one with Japan in any scenario in which the latter alliance still seems possible. Therefore, the most important first step in any ChineseーGerman Alliance is to prevent any possibility of a JapaneseーGerman understanding.
To sum up, I don't think Nazi Germany would ever choose to ally with China over Japan if it has to choose one or the other. However, if the goal is simply to prevent OTL's Tripartite Pact, then I think the easiest way to do this would be to ratchet up opposition to it in Japan. Many in the Navy were strongly against an alliance with Nazi Germany, and were only persuaded to back it after both a lot of arguing, and the promise of a much-increased Naval budget. FM Matsuoka was convinced that the alliance with Germany would force the US to lessen its demands on Japan, when of course it only poisoned US-Japanese relations still further. Matsuoka also helped get the pact passed by sacking a large portion of the bureaucrats in his ministry opposed to it. If he does not become FM, then there is a good chance that Japan never formally aligns with the Axis. In the late 30s, PMs Abe and Konai both wanted Japan neutral regarding the fight in Europe. In contrast, PMs Konoe and Tōjō were both bullish on Nazi Germany's chances in the war. If neither of them become PM, then it is more plausible that Militarist Japan doesn't align with Germany and Italy. If you want to read more about the debate within the halls of power in Japan over whether or not to ally with the Axis, I recommend "Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy", by Eri Hotta. It has a quite informative chapter on this.

In such a world I would imagine that there would be no reason for Nazi Germany to declare war on the USA. Let me know your thoughts on this.
I hate to use the word "inevitable" on this site, but I think regardless of what Japan does, the US will go to war with Germany sooner or later. Even before Pearl Harbor, the US was fighting an undeclared Naval war against U-boats, and there had already been a couple of incidents. It's too much in the interests of the US to prevent the collapse of the UK, especially after the fall of France. The Nazis, in turn, are not going to indefinitely allow huge amounts of aid to flow into the UK, when they knew one of their best hopes of victory was starving the British out. Even if Japan fell off the face of the earth in 1940,and Pearl Harbor never happens, the US will join the war sooner or later. There will be some incident(s), and FDR will win the vote in Congress. To prevent this, you need a much more isolationist US, and that requires its own set of PoDs.
 
There is a simple reason why Germany would not choose China over Japan - China was losing big time, and was a basket case internally. While longer term China is an endless sink for Japan, if the USA is not backing Chiang to the hilt, and Japan is getting oil and raw materials and the economic sanctions are not as bad eventually Japan will either force some sort of settlement with Chiang or his successors or draw some lines and declare victory. To simplify, Chiang's whole policy was to hold out until the USA came in on a white horse to deal with Japan. Germany, IMHO, did not see the USA doing that pre-PH.
 
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