No transfer of the Portuguese Court to Brazil

If the Portuguese Royal Family had instead been captured, or simply hidden out in unconquered areas of Portugal, what would have been the effects?

Initial suggestions:

- Brazillian trade still restricted with colonial neighbours, causing less wealth in South America and more smuggling
- Poorer administration in Brazil, making it more difficult to maintain unity when independence comes - could it Balkanise a la Central America?
- Less infrastructure, further harming economic development, and reducing the spread of whites inland
- Less spread of literature and enlightenment ideas in Brazil
- Less revenue coming from Brazil to Portugal, thus weakening future finances and threatening it with conquest by Spain
- A potential grab of Brazil by the British, as they did with the Cape Colony, with far-reaching impacts
 
- Brazillian trade still restricted with colonial neighbours, causing less wealth in South America and more smuggling

A possibility, but not necessarily. The British could very well have forced the oppening of the ports anyway in order to help the Portuguese to get rid of the French.
- Poorer administration in Brazil, making it more difficult to maintain unity when independence comes - could it Balkanise a la Central America?

That is given. Without a court in Rio centralizing everything each region would follow different paths.

- Less infrastructure, further harming economic development, and reducing the spread of whites inland
The Braganzas didn't really help much creating infraestructure outside Rio. The colonization pace would probably not be much changed.

- Less spread of literature and enlightenment ideas in Brazil

The intellectual elite was already receiving foreing literature and ideas since the colonial times. Also, the Braganzas didn't stop the censorship, meaning that they many liberal books continued to be forbidden during that time. The spread of Enlightenment among the elites wouldn't be much changed. Actually, without an official government to impose censorship, it might even gain speed.

- Less revenue coming from Brazil to Portugal, thus weakening future finances and threatening it with conquest by Spain

The resources we sent to Portugal during the time of the Court in Rio were minimal, almost nule. So, no much difference here.

- A potential grab of Brazil by the British, as they did with the Cape Colony, with far-reaching impacts

Maybe it's possible, but if they get freedom of commerce there would be no need for this.
 
The resources we sent to Portugal during the time of the Court in Rio were minimal, almost nule. So, no much difference here.

My point was that less economic development in Brazil would mean less revenue in the long term

Maybe it's possible, but if they get freedom of commerce there would be no need for this.

Would the British not be worried about the Spanish nabbing the key cities, and thus they would want to secure them for themselves?
 
Would the British not be worried about the Spanish nabbing the key cities, and thus they would want to secure them for themselves?
Unless the Spanish somehow keep their own American colonies, they probably won't bother. And even if they keep them, I doubt they'd be keen on conquering land likely full of people hostile to their rule. Hell, at this time the Spanish are most likely going to have a though time keeping control over the Spanish-speaking parts of America.
 
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