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General premise:
This requires a somewhat ASBish thing, namely slight changes in the personality of two Peter I.

Peter must have to improve his ability to think logically and consistently before jumping to the action so, in the late 1695, during prolonged drinking party following capture of Azov, he occasionally hits his head which results in some subtle changes that none of his entourage even noticed (I'm rather reluctant to attribute the positive changes strictly to extensive drinking and whoring ;) ).

Still in OTL:
Access to the Sea of Azov proved to be of a limited usefulness as long as the Ottomans controlled the Strait of Kerch.

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In 1696 creation of the Russian navy had been decreed. In 1699 Russia's Azov fleet set sail for Kerch, the peninsula in the eastern Crimea. The attack fleet numbered ten ships of the line armed with a total of 366 guns and carrying a combined crew of 2,126 seamen and officers, and accompanied by two galleys and sixteen smaller craft. The Pasha of Kerch was so overwhelmed at the sight of this unexpected and threatening display of naval strength that he surrendered without offering resistance.

The 46-gun Krepost [Fortress] carried the Tsar's first diplomatic mission across the Black Sea to Constantinople. According to the truce signed a year later, the Sea of Azov and its coastal territory were officially relinquished to Russia but Kerch was returned to the Ottomans with a provisions allowing free Russian shipping on the Black Sea.

This was better than nothing but, in practical terms, not so much: there was still Crimean Khanate with its regular raids into Southern Russian territories and not a single good port (the wharves were up the Don River in Voronez, which created numerous problems).

In 1698 Johann Patkul, at that time on a service of August II Strong, of Saxony and Poland, appeared in Moscow with the proposal of a great alliance against Sweden. His initial plan involved participation of Saxony, Denmark and Brandenburg but, when Brandenburg proved to be unwilling, he reluctantly switched to Russia (nobody in Europe was excessively impressed by the Azov campaigns and Russian military prestige was quite low). According to his plan, August, helped by the general anti-Swedish uprising of the local nobility, will conquer Livonia (Riga, the biggest port on the Baltic sea, was going to be a major price) while Peter will get Estonia and Ingria (the only place of a noticeable significance - port of Narva).



POD:
Peter received Patkul but did not show any enthusiasm:

1st, Russian tasks on the South had been far from completed: there still was unresolved "Crimean Issue", need for the better ports, and of the further Ottoman concessions regarding the navigation rights (not as much because there was a pressing demand from the Russian merchants, there was none, but rather as a matter of "principle": in Peter's opinion to become "European" Russia must have navy so why drop things in a middle for some wild goose chase schema).

2nd, There was no pressing need for having an access to the Baltic Sea. Archangelsk on the White Sea had been functioning and the trade through the Swedish-held ports of Narva and Revel never stopped (by Stolbovoy Peace the custom dues had been set to an acceptably low level). For the growing trade with Persia and China Baltic ports were completely irrelevant.

3rd, Experience of the Azov campaigns clearly demonstrated that Russian army is not, yet, up to the serious tasks.

Patkul left Moscow with nothing but the best wishes while Peter confirmed the existing peace treaty with Charles.

Not too Great Northern War:

August was not too dismayed by Patkul's failure: after all, nobody was taking Russia seriously anyway and the combined forces of Saxony and Denmark should be quite adequate for the task. In the early 1700 7,000 of the Saxon troops marched to Riga without even bothering to take with them a siege artillery. They took 2 outlying fortifications but could not proceed any further and after hearing about approach of the Swedish forces assembled in Livonia, retreated. Few months later August arrived with his main force (and artillery) but well-fortified Riga refused to capitulate. By the fall of 1700 August lost interest and left the siege: his infantry was sent to the winter quarters in Curland, cavalry to Lithuania and August himself went to Warsaw (admittedly, much more entertaining place). There was a rumor that the merchants of Riga secretly offered August a bribe of 100, 000 thalers for leaving them alone.



After forcing Denmark to sign a peace treaty, Charles arrived to Livonia in the late 1700 and proceeded dealing with August whom he considered a bad person both for his immoral life style and because of his change of religion (as a "man of principle" Charles though that the sins and injustice must be punished).

For the next few years Charles had a quality time chasing August all over Poland. In 1704 he created his own Polish king, Stanislaw Leschinski, while August and his supporters officially declared the Commonwealth being at war with Sweden, which added an extra factor to the ongoing entertaining: now the Poles could chose which of two kings they can support, which allowed them to start fighting each other, Swedes and Saxons in all possible combinations. By 1706 Charles forced August to abdicate (as King of Poland) and, finally figured out that invasion of Saxony may be a good idea (strategy and diplomacy were not exactly his forte). August immediately capitulated and Swedish army was left in the winter quarters in Saxony.

The Northern War is over (at least for a while) without growing into something even marginally "Great".

Real entertainment starts:

At this point European states became seriously interested in what was so far considered a somewhat "exotic" conflict. Presumably 30 - 40,000 thousands Swedes (nobody knew for sure how many) led by Charles XII (by whatever reasons, his status of the great and perhaps even the greatest general of the time was not questioned) and strategically placed in Saxony could make a lot of difference depending on which (if any) side he chose. The Duke of Marlborough traveled to his headquarters but these two instantly disliked each other and their meeting ended up being a competition "who is a bigger prick".


Charles was definitely tempted to help his Protestant brethren in Hungary, presently fighting against the Hapsburg rule and to help Protestants in Austrian Silesia.

France was working diligently on bringing Charles to its side (after all, Sweden was a traditional ally of France).

The Emperor was ready to make a compromise peace with Sweden but, unlike OTL where Charles has "item # <whatever>, now I have to punish Russia" on his list, Charles has nothing interesting to do and refuses. The Hapsburgs being traditional enemies of Sweden, his choice is obvious and the fact that his army is within 10 marches from Vienna, make this choice even more obvious.

By that time the Allies are successful on the "Northern Front" (Battle of Ramillies) and in Italy (Battel fo Turin) but are losing ground in Spain where by November 1706, the Bourbons controlled Castile, Murcia and parts of Valencia.

From this point scenario is open to the further speculations. :cool:

Peter and the Ottomans

Peter keeps building up his army and navy getting ready to the next war against the Ottomans. His immediate target - the Crimean Khanate.
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