the Panther is probably the main culprit. The tiger I though more complex than it should be, was essentially a low production heavy tank that impacted logistics fairly minimally. The Panther was a failure prone, maintenance heavy resource hog, and was produced in comrapable numbers to the more workmanlike Panzer IV.
A simpler 30ton medium tank to replace the PIV, or just continuing the PIV production with improvements would have given greater numbers of tanks overall, and more tanks actually making it to battle. Perhaps an extra two thousand medium tanks, with a better availability rate.
This gives the germans some more options in the latter phases of the war, but probably doesn't change things over muct. At this point Soviet and western allied production vastly overmatches them in both offensive tank units, and reactive anti-tank units.
It might mean a large tank battle on the western front, or another on on the eastern