No Three-Fifths Compromise

I'm not sure if this is possible, but if the South is adamant that slaves are property and shouldn't count for purposes of taxation, and the North respond that in that case they shouldn't count for representation either, what are the consequences if in the end it is agreed:

1 They count for neither
2 They count fully for both?
 
Neither will affect Senate representation.

The first drastically lowers the tax burden on the south, but weakens their hold in the House. It also makes Southern states less important for the Electoral College. The North dominates much earlier. We can imagine several anti-slavery measures pass. This may not mean an earlier civil war, because the South wasn't as radical earlier on, and the North is less incensed at Southern obstructionism. It may quickly become apparent that the expansion of slavery won't be allowed, and Southerners accept that. Ironically, this may mean slavery lasts longer ITTL until some form of compensated emancipation is passed in the last half of the 19th century. Also, the lost revenue needs to be made up somehow, likely by a higher tariff which the South can't stop.

The second increases the taxes the Southern states need to pay, but they have even more representation. They stop and block all anti-slavery attempts. Slavery might expand more in a series of compromises to gett the necessary votes. Northern resentment increases, but it takes a Republican a lot longer to win the White House. Civil War happens later, but with the North even more of an industrial power. Without the unique circumstances of OTL John Buchanan and 1860, it could very well end sooner.
 
Neither will affect Senate representation.

The first drastically lowers the tax burden on the south...

Only if Congress ever votes an apportioned tax, and OTL that never happened. So the South paid nothing extra for its slave population.


, but weakens their hold in the House. It also makes Southern states less important for the Electoral College.
This is the apportionment of House seats in 1790-1860, using Jefferson's Method, with OTL population figures but excluding all slaves.


......OTL......No 3/5
Year SS FS chg SS FS
1790 48 _57 _8 40 _65
1800 65 _76 _9 56 _85
1810 78 103 11 67 114
1820 90 123 19 71 142
1830 99 141 16 83 157
1840 88 135 17 71 152
1850 90 144 17 73 161
1860 85 155 14 71 169


Note that by 1820, the free states have a 2/3 majority in the House.

However - the free states always had a majority in the House and the Electoral College. (Note: this counts NY, NJ, and CT as free states from 1790, even though they still had 1,000s of slaves in 1820.)

The shift does not alter the election of 1856. Even if all 17 additional EV go to free states carried by Frémont, and none to the four free states carried by Buchanan, Frémont is still way short of winning - 131 EV of 296 (Buchanan would have 155).

The North dominates much earlier. We can imagine several anti-slavery measures pass.
Since the Senate does not change, and the slave states retain half the Senate, nothing passes.
 
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While the Senate will remain more evenly divided between fee and slave states ITTL, the shift in the electoral college towards the north/free states will have an influence on politics. Presidential candidates will have less reason to curry favor with the south, and remember that some of the states that were slave states (border states during the CW) were not always part of a solid bloc voting with the deep south. This could very well prevent the rise of "doughfaces" as well as other northern politcos who deferred to southern interests.
 
While the Senate will remain more evenly divided between fee and slave states ITTL, the shift in the electoral college towards the north/free states will have an influence on politics. Presidential candidates will have less reason to curry favor with the south, and remember that some of the states that were slave states (border states during the CW) were not always part of a solid bloc voting with the deep south. This could very well prevent the rise of "doughfaces" as well as other northern politcos who deferred to southern interests.



Which, ironically, might benefit the South.

The change will make it impossible to pass the Kansas-Nebraska Act, which more than anything else served to trigger the formation of the Republican party.
 
They could try to have Congressional proportion done by citizenship or voters, but I think that would get amended after States with large immigration realize they could get more Reps in Congress if it were just population.
 
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