No Thirty Years Wars: Demographic Consequences

Susano

Banned
Right. Normally, I dont do social history, but this would be a rather great change, so I find it intersting:

Assume for whatever reason there is no 30 Years War. Not a period of perfect peace, either, but the usual amounts of wars, ended by political balance of the two confessions in Germany as IOTL. Or whatever - as long as there is no 30 Years War. That in itself would have intersting politcial cosnequences (and would require an intersting political situation to bring about), but my point is something else:

IOTL, a third of the German population was killed in the war. In many territories even 2/3, and in others of course less, but overall roughly a third. Germany really only caught up in population in the explosion of population numbers in the 19th century. So, without the war, what happens to population development? What happens to the excess numbers of Germans?

Is Germany now constantly on the brink of overpopulation and hence due to plagues and famines there wont much change after aforementioned 19th century, resulting in cerca the same population numbers as IOTL? Or do Germans go out settling - but where? Not the far away colonies of other powers, and Eastern Central Europe is by that time sufficiently settled that unlike in the middle ages Germans cant settle there, either. More Russia Germans, maybe, but apart from that... or could Germany actually have and maintain so much more people?
 
there was the attempted German colonization of Venezuela (Klein-Venedig) financed by the Fugger family I think, which never got off the ground. but maybe with the huge number of more Germans, the Fuggers could try again, offering more incentives for the poor overpopulated Germany. it would have more of a chance of working, because with a greater population base the colony could stand a better chance of surviving.

there were also attempts to found colonies in Chile and Patagonia, those might be more successful too. that would be interesting, a Holy Roman Empire with colonies in the New World....
 

Susano

Banned
there was the attempted German colonization of Venezuela (Klein-Venedig) financed by the Fugger family I think, which never got off the ground. but maybe with the huge number of more Germans, the Fuggers could try again, offering more incentives for the poor overpopulated Germany. it would have more of a chance of working, because with a greater population base the colony could stand a better chance of surviving.

there were also attempts to found colonies in Chile and Patagonia, those might be more successful too. that would be interesting, a Holy Roman Empire with colonies in the New World....

no, those would still be Spanish colonies with german population, but Klein-Venedig (done by the Welser family, btw, not teh Fuggers, even if both were seated in Augsburg) faield for purely political reasons, not reasons of population. Which shows that its rather improbable German settlement in the colonies of foreign powers (and itself the HREGN or its principalities could not set up colonies) would work out.
 
I think we would see a larger number of German settlement in Eastern Europe - Catholics in Austro-Hungarian territories, Protestants in Poland and Russia. There may also be more emigration to Sweden (mostly interested in attracting highly qualified German craftsmen and professional soldiers in the 17th century). Colonial emigration is liable to follow later, but it probably won't be all that different - I can't see any German state getting a meaningful colony. The Dutch may be happy to send more Germans to theirs, but again I don't envision that tipping the balance in places like Brasil or New Amsterdam.

What you have to keep in mind is that population pressure tends to depress birth rates. Even severe losses can be repaired over the course of two or three generations, but the high growth rates do not continue indefinitely asd resource shortage leads to higher marriage ages and fewer children. Germnany would consistently export population through the 17th and early 18th century rather than stop as it did OTL, but there isn't going to be a massive exodus of surplus Germans.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
no, those would still be Spanish colonies with german population, but Klein-Venedig (done by the Welser family, btw, not teh Fuggers, even if both were seated in Augsburg) faield for purely political reasons, not reasons of population. Which shows that its rather improbable German settlement in the colonies of foreign powers (and itself the HREGN or its principalities could not set up colonies) would work out.

Except Protestantic German settlement in the territories of foreign powers was rather common in the 18th century even if the they did tend to be integrated later.

But without a 30 Years War, I think that the Catholics would settle mostly in the Austrian territories in Hungary, while the protestant would go to the Baltic and Russia, with a small minority going to North America especially the non Lutherans. Beside that there would most likely be a continued settlement of North East Germany.
 
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