No Texas Independence

it would depend entirely on what Santa Anna did. He made a lot of statements about taking bloody revenge on the expatriate Americans, and judging from what he did to the survivors of the Alamo and Goliad, he just might do something stupid and awful. If he did, it seems much too likely that America, already horrified by the loss of Davy Crockett, would jump into the fray sooner or later. But SA's generals were mostly opposed to his bloody handed tactics, and if SA listened to them and was merciful to the survivors, then the USA will be placated.
Going beyond the Texan war, the USA is still going to be coveting those western lands, and TX will be part of that. As for how such a war would go, with the Americans starting outside of TX instead of at it's southern border, I leave it to others...
 
Santa Anna's goal during his 1836 campaign was to drive all of the Anglo-American settlers from Texas. If Sam Houston's army failed to defeat Santa Anna at San Jacinto, the Santa Anna would have marched all the way to the Sabine. If they crossed the Sabine, perhaps to pursue a high value target like Zavala, Burnet or Houston, The United States would be forced to invade Mexico. However Martin Van Buren was not exactly Texas friendly OTL and may have only defended US soil. (He turned down annexation negotiations, fearing it would start a Civil War.)

If Texas (and possibly OTL Mexican secession) is taken by the US, Texas would become several smaller slave states (all east of 100W) since the republic of Texas would have never made the claim of the Rio Grande. (This was in the Treaty of Velasco signed by Santa Anna after San Jacinto) This new territory would have sparked an earlier controversy inside the Whig party about slavery and the Mexican war would cause greater financial ruin for Van Buren administration. If the civil war happens it will happen by the late 1840’s.
 
Santa Anna's goal during his 1836 campaign was to drive all of the Anglo-American settlers from Texas.

as I understand it, his goal wasn't to 'drive the yanks out of TX' as it was to get them firmly under control, and install the proper tax and customs collections on them (reminiscent of the ARW, ain't it). He was going to also ban any further American immigration and encourage Mexican immigration. There were some lesser concerns, such as the Americans not really adopting Catholicism and out and out slavery existing, although neither seemed to be high on the priority list...
 
as I understand it, his goal wasn't to 'drive the yanks out of TX'
Because nothing says, "I want y'all to stay!" like declaring "No Quarter" for separatist, massacring the Goliad defenders and burning down ever town he came to. (Bastop, Harrisburg, Washington-on-the-Brazos, San Felipe...) He Santa Anna may not have intended to drive them out, but it was the unforgiving effect of his tactics that did it in the end.

Also, Santa Anna never offered freedom to slaves who would fight with him against the Texans. He could have but he didn't. Mexico's strategy to eliminate slavery in Texas was to drown out the slave owners with foreign immigrants from countries that despised slavery like Britain and Germany.
 
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