If the Knights Teutonic don't arrive in Prussia, then there is still the Livonian order present in Estonia and Latvia. They are just as likely to push south to Prussia as they are to push east to Novogorod. In both cases, they antagonize Lithuania and Novogorod, but stay away from Poland.
A lot depends on just how successful the Livonian Order would be in fighting the pagan Lithuanians and Orthodox Russians. Assuming they have an OTL Knight Teutonic efficiency, they exterminate the Estonians, Livonians and Latvians, the German settlers that OTL went to Prussia move to Livonia making it a Germanic land. This could be a strong motivator for a Lithuanian-Novogorod alliance, even Lithuania adopting Orthodox faith. OTOH, Poland, once recentralized (could happen faster without the Knights Teutonic interfering) could want to expand eastwards as OTL and see the Livonian-Lithuanian wars as an opportunity - hold northern crusades of its own eventually annexing Prussia and pushing into Ukraine, being in an alliance with the Livonian Knights - being so far appart, they wouldn't have conflicting interests.