No Tampa crisis

[BlackMage]

Depending on who you ask (and which paper you read), the arrival of the MV Tampa in 2001 was either a decisive moment in the 2001 election campaign, allowing John Howard to be re-elected despite his earlier popularity, or just a brief incident which reminded Australians of their rip-roaring patriotism and allowed for much flag-saluting.

My question is, what if the shipment of asylum seekers on Palapa 1 had never arrived, or had arrived after the election? What if, in short, there was no Tampa crisis?

Whether this plays a major role in the election is up to your interpretation of events. I think this would probably make the election too close to call; Howard doesn't have an easily available dog-whistle, but he is at his best when he's backed into the corner. If Beazley did win, though (as polling earlier in the year seemed to indicate), what would the effects be?

 

[LacheyS]

Don't forget you also have the "Children Overboard Affair" and 11 September occurring at the same time.

Earlier in the year, Labor was well ahead and Court lost power in Western Australia. Then there was the Beattie slide. Then the Ryan by-election loss. Then we all remember the Shane Stone memo. IIRC, there was another by-election in a strong Liberal seat (Aston, I think) which saw a large swing against the Government but held on.

Before the whole blow-up, the ALP polling was going strongly in a number of seats and poorly in others. Running around the states:

NSW: The ALP knew that they would lose Macarthur, due to Pat Farmer as the candidate for the Liberals. I was working in the seat next door, Werriwa, and we pretty much knew it was a fait accompli. It was also pretty well assumed that the Liberals would pick up Farrer from the Nationals. The Liberals were struggling to hold Dobell and Parramatta, but were unlikely to lose Paterson or Eden-Monaro (strong local candidates). Larry Anthony was already getting on the nose in Richmond; he was very lucky to survive another three years, but I think Causley would have survived in Page. CHANGE FROM OTL: ALP +3, Liberals -2, Nationals -1.

VIC: Fran Bailey would have struggled to hold McEwen and Philip Barresi would have lost Deakin. Some argue that LaTrobe was in with a chance, but from my reading of the polls at the time, it was too close and that usually means they stick with the Government. SUBTOTAL CHANGE FROM OTL: ALP +5, Liberals -4, Nationals -1

QLD: The ALP was always going to lose Dickson, thanks to the Cheryl Kernot factor, but they were fairly confident of picking up Herbert to replace it, and Mal Brough was struggling to hold Longman. I personally think it would have gone down. Paul Neville would also have lost Hinkler. SUBTOTAL CHANGE FROM OTL: ALP +8, Liberals -6, Nationals -2

SA: Adelaide was an easy win before Tampa for the ALP, but I think Hindmarsh and Makin would have held. SUBTOTAL CHANGE FROM OTL: ALP +9, Liberals -7, Nationals -2

OTHERS: The ALP would have picked up Canning in WA and Solomon in the NT.

So the election result may have been a hung Parliament:

60 Liberals/11 Nationals
74 ALP
3 Independents

I suspect that the ALP would have, in this situation, offered Peter Andren the Speaker's Chair and retained a one-seat majority.

 

[Larrikin]

Tampa

The Tampa 'crisis' (my god, how overblown can you get) was beaten up as a major political point by the leftist media (Fairfax papers, ABC, SBS), thinking that they could get enough mileage out of it to put Labor in. Instead, it blew up in their faces. Before the refugee situation became the major talking point of that election, Labor was going to have to fight it on policies and economic performance, and they had neither, and were going to loose.

 

[BlackMage]

Wow. Thanks for that great research, LacheyS!

So a hung parliament, the first we've seen since 1939...the Speaker doesn't get a vote in debates, though, does he? So if Bob Katter and Tony Windsor united with the Libs, they could deadlock Labor?

So, potentially, a vote of no confidence could go 74-74. What happens then? Does Beazley have to resign? In that case, whoever takes over the Liberals (Costello, probably, unless he's too tainted by association with the 2001 loss) will face the same situation as Beazley, maybe keeping Andren in the Speaker's chair so that they've got the same numbers as Labor (presuming Windsor and Katter stay on side)

I imagine a new election'd be called pretty soon...

 

[LacheyS]

The Tampa 'crisis' (my god, how overblown can you get) was beaten up as a major political point by the leftist media (Fairfax papers, ABC, SBS), thinking that they could get enough mileage out of it to put Labor in. Instead, it blew up in their faces. Before the refugee situation became the major talking point of that election, Labor was going to have to fight it on policies and economic performance, and they had neither, and were going to loose.

That's right. The whole Tampa affair was a left-wing conspiracy that blew up in their faces.

I would like to note that I was working for Mark Latham at the time. If you know anything about Latham, you would know that a Beazley victory was really the last thing he would have wanted. And though I once worked for the ALP, I am not a faithful party acolyte. Personally, I would rather see Beazley occupy the same cage as Howard when they stand trial for treason. I think both have betrayed their country and its people in too many ways to enumerate, and my dislike of both of them is about equal.

Having said that, I did have access to a stack of internal polling at the time and have actually halved the swing that was on the cards, because I couldn't be certain what impact the children overboard affair would have had without Tampa. There can be no doubt that without, S11 and Tampa, John Howard was headed for defeat, irregardless of how unlikely you believe Labor would put out intelligent policies and irregardless of how much I agree with you. The swing was moving against the Government and sometimes the electorate just doesn't care whether or not the Opposition has a credible policy if they decide the Government is on the nose. It's not like Australia has the most informed voters in the world. Tampa was the watershed the Government needed; it stopped the slide and gave them a chance to find their footing again. And, as we all know, a John Howard who has found his footing is just about unbeatable.

 

[LacheyS]

Wow. Thanks for that great research, LacheyS!

So a hung parliament, the first we've seen since 1939...the Speaker doesn't get a vote in debates, though, does he? So if Bob Katter and Tony Windsor united with the Libs, they could deadlock Labor?

So, potentially, a vote of no confidence could go 74-74. What happens then? Does Beazley have to resign? In that case, whoever takes over the Liberals (Costello, probably, unless he's too tainted by association with the 2001 loss) will face the same situation as Beazley, maybe keeping Andren in the Speaker's chair so that they've got the same numbers as Labor (presuming Windsor and Katter stay on side)

I imagine a new election'd be called pretty soon...

Actually, with Katter and Windsor voting with the Coalition, the vote would have gone 74-73.

 

[BlackMage]

Actually, with Katter and Windsor voting with the Coalition, the vote would have gone 74-73.

Oh yes, good point. Sorry, maths isn't my strong point.

Even so, they still have a very shaky majority. This may actually be a boon for the left; with Andren holding the whip hand, they may have to pass more Aboriginal affairs legislation than they would personally want. That, of course, raises the disturbing possibility that when the government is forced to call a new election (as they invariably will soon, since they're practically sitting on a grenade), racial policy may play a disturbingly large role...

Someone ought to write that up as a TL.

 

[jamestm]

No S11 due to quantum fluctuations

I remember the Tampa and when I questioned that possibly allowing refugees into Australia adhoc was not a good idea, the woman who was giving me a lift to a spiritual retreat centre Osho Samaya near Byron Bay launched the most vitrolic attack on me I have ever experienced. I wondered if I was going to get to the centre in one piece after apologising several times to her. S11 happened that night.

Nontheless I did not agree with the governments inhumanitarian stance on the matter and exploitation of xenophobia in the elections. I had voted for Howard in 1998 because I knew as a corportate tax consultant that we needed the GST. I had worked in KPMG London and saw how effective VAT was especially in obtaining a fairer tax system by largely removing a lot of tax evasion from small business. But gradually our erosion of human rights, indigenous land rights and many other aspects of Liberal NP policy made me go against the Liberals. After Tampa I lost all faith in them. Ironically because it propelled them to victory; a victory they may well have got regardless of exploiting the refugee crisis.

The irony of ironies is I believe that there would have been no S11 if we had accepted the refugees. I can only explain this as a quantum phenomena in a non-linear space-time. In other words large tracts of prior history need not eventuate based on current decisions. Schroedinger's cat mind experiment in uncertainty theory proved events only exist as a probability function until they are actually observed. Hence the cat remains both dead and alive until it is observed dead regardless of when it died in the past. Unobserved events in the past are not fixed according to quantum theory. This is in part due to relativity and uncertainty theory. Time is not as linear fixed as it appears - it is a weave of probabilities both in the future and in the past.

Why in my opinion would Tampa have altered the manifesting of S11, it is purely intuitive. You hurt others and they hurt you. Tampa was representative of a collapse of humanitarianism not just here, but in Afghanistan where the Taliban had just blown up large Buddhist statues, no-one much cared, but the spiritual significance of this was planetary. They were executing people in stadiums and presided over one of the most fearsome totalitarian regimes in modern history. They were also implementing a most radical form of Jihadist Islam on the basis that the world had become so selfish, corrupted, evil and materialistic - that God had ordained them to turn the tide (I have to say I am not altogether in disagreement with them, however I would disagree with their methods to implement change - after watching Bom Bali and seeing how the ocker Aussies behave there, a devout Muslim may be right in thinking these people have fallen under Satan). For us to turn away a boat that had rescued refugees escaping from this country, which many on the Tampa were from, showed a degree of lack of humanity to our fellow man that beggars beyond belief. Mainly because it shows a total lack of rememberance of the basis of the creation of the UN and the atrocities committed during WWII. I am speaking of the boats of Jewish refugees that were turned back to Germany. Arguably our actions in relation to the Tampa were actually in breach of UN Charter. So when egalitarian Australia with so much land and so few people, behaves like this, then like the Chaos theory imparts, the wings of the butterfly manifest a cyclone. Howard's petulant act of inhumanity to protect himself (Tampa) had to manifest in him paying a direct karmic consequence for it and a painful one, hence he was in Washington when S11 happened and had his wonderful opportunity to speak to a Republican Congress postponed. Of course on a larger bigger picture it was the US that took the blow so obviously their thread into S11 was much more significant - electing Bush, giving up on caring about Palestine, Bosnia, pulling out of world affairs, ENRON, but in time I am sure we will find the key plot point of inhumanity that tipped the scales of time - and I am sure George knows the answer to that.

And if there had been no Tampa and no S11 Howard would have struggled largely because the GST was in a hell of a mess due to Costello's poor implementation by making it overly complex and pushing the changes through to fast on small business and Howard needed a diversion.

Hope this helps.

It could make an interesting short fictional story.

 

[BlackMage]

Hmm. I must say, while I don't agree with your karmic interpretation of events (some people are just...jerks, like Osama), it is very interesting, and certainly a spin on usual chaos theory. THAT could make an interesting basis for a short story.

 

[LacheyS]

Oh yes, good point. Sorry, maths isn't my strong point.

Even so, they still have a very shaky majority. This may actually be a boon for the left; with Andren holding the whip hand, they may have to pass more Aboriginal affairs legislation than they would personally want. That, of course, raises the disturbing possibility that when the government is forced to call a new election (as they invariably will soon, since they're practically sitting on a grenade), racial policy may play a disturbingly large role...

Someone ought to write that up as a TL.

What they would probably do is hold the inquiry into the children overboard, as per OTL, and then call an election once they had managed to smear the credibility of a number of senior Liberals.

 

[jamestm]

Blah

I remember the Tampa and when I said that possibly allowing refugees into Australia adhoc was not a good idea, the woman who was giving me a lift to a spiritual retreat centre Osho Samaya near Byron Bay launched the most vitrolic attack on me I have ever experienced.

Just removing any ambiguity.

My quantum theory is very hard to grasp initially as it goes against a linear Newtonian time line where everything logically follows from every other event in a fixed unnalterable clockwork like past. And that is where most people are at in their thinking - which is almost 100 years behind scientific research.

Blackmage that is a little bit of a too simplistic analysis of Bin Laden. You have to put yourself in his shoes and his radical form of culture and religion, then his actions actually seem quite plausible. In fact to them we are not just 'jerks' we are under satanic influence - and judging by the degradation of the family, delinquency, sexual promiscuity, drug abuse, materialism, selfishness and so forth - he may be right about the West. Whether S11 was avoidable by taking the Tampa refugees is of course purely intuitive as I said. From Australia's karmic perspective I would say the correlation of the two events is more than a coincidence.

The real issue for the historian is how we could have avoided S11. What steps could we have taken to prevent it? What was Osima telling us about our relationship with the world? How can we resolve this conflict with Islam and end the terrorist war? What are their grievances, are they justified and can we solve them? What had really upset Osima so much that he wanted to do that to America? Apparently Bush had close ties to the Bin Ladens and probably theirin lies the answer. The American Christian soldiers based in Saudi, the most sacred and holy land where no infidel is allowed, may have been the superficial catalyst that turned Bin Laden so anti-American. He was happy enough to take arms, money and training from them while fighting the Soviets, however the first Gulf War seemed to have changed his feelings towards America. Largely because it is commonly believed in the Islamic world that America deliberately caused the invasion of Kuwait - through a system of defence treaties, oil drilling from Kuwait into Iraqi fields, and attempts to break OPEC through flooding the market with Kuwaiti oil - all of which happened. This conspiracy theory may be unjustified, however who knows what goes on in the twisted minds of the CIA and other policy makers in the White House, one assumes they were not all morons and at least one of them could have predicted Sadam's reaction to their OPEC breaking scheme, certainly George Bush Snr seemed to very conveniently have a perfect pretext for bringing on the dare I say "Christian" New World Order - which somehow flopped when the Iraqis failed to oust Sadam themselves. And so did old George's reelection chances. And judging by the current Bush's fundamentalist Christian views, he may just be devoutly following scripture and trying to bring about prophecies in Revelations where for instance it states the beast in Baghdad must be subdued to defeat the Anti-Christ. I am sure history will judge this whole thing as another bungled religious crusade with a bit of booty thrown in and an attempt to get a controlling influence on the Middle East spice and silk trade, sorry oil trade. I mean isn't it all to stop WMDs and bring them pluralistic democracy, which basically is the pretext for immasculating fundamentalist Islam and so allowing the thin end of the wedge in, to infiltrate missionaries in, to get them to see the light of Jesus. Do not underestimate the religious zealousness of the American moral majority akka GB's cronies.

 

[Cockroach]

So a hung parliament, the first we've seen since 1939...the Speaker doesn't get a vote in debates, though, does he? So if Bob Katter and Tony Windsor united with the Libs, they could deadlock Labor?

IIRC the Speaker is only allowed to vote in the event of a dead-lock... or at least I think that is how it applies in the Tassie state parliment at any rate.

 

[CDurham]

The Tampa 'crisis' (my god, how overblown can you get) was beaten up as a major political point by the leftist media (Fairfax papers, ABC, SBS), thinking that they could get enough mileage out of it to put Labor in. Instead, it blew up in their faces. Before the refugee situation became the major talking point of that election, Labor was going to have to fight it on policies and economic performance, and they had neither, and were going to loose.

That's right. The whole Tampa affair was a left-wing conspiracy that blew up in their faces.

I would like to note that I was working for Mark Latham at the time. If you know anything about Latham, you would know that a Beazley victory was really the last thing he would have wanted. And though I once worked for the ALP, I am not a faithful party acolyte. Personally, I would rather see Beazley occupy the same cage as Howard when they stand trial for treason. I think both have betrayed their country and its people in too many ways to enumerate, and my dislike of both of them is about equal.

Having said that, I did have access to a stack of internal polling at the time and have actually halved the swing that was on the cards, because I couldn't be certain what impact the children overboard affair would have had without Tampa. There can be no doubt that without, S11 and Tampa, John Howard was headed for defeat, irregardless of how unlikely you believe Labor would put out intelligent policies and irregardless of how much I agree with you. The swing was moving against the Government and sometimes the electorate just doesn't care whether or not the Opposition has a credible policy if they decide the Government is on the nose. It's not like Australia has the most informed voters in the world. Tampa was the watershed the Government needed; it stopped the slide and gave them a chance to find their footing again. And, as we all know, a John Howard who has found his footing is just about unbeatable.

Hmm, couldn't have been THAT big of a deal, the news never even made it to Texas (hell, probably didn't make the West bank of the Mississippi even)