No Swiss Civil War

What if the Civil War in 1847 between the Swiss Confederation and the Sonderbund didn´t break out which resulted into a new constitution and the transformation of Switzerland into a federal state with the cantons loosing their de facto independence ?
 
What if the Civil War in 1847 between the Swiss Confederation and the Sonderbund didn´t break out which resulted into a new constitution and the transformation of Switzerland into a federal state with the cantons loosing their de facto independence ?

Could this lead to a breakup &/or partition of Switzerland in the future?
 
What if the Civil War in 1847 between the Swiss Confederation and the Sonderbund didn´t break out which resulted into a new constitution and the transformation of Switzerland into a federal state with the cantons loosing their de facto independence ?

First, I suspect that Switzerland would continue on as it had been before. A lot of people argue that a slow evolution towards greater centralization (as OTL has occurred) is inevitable, even without the Sonderbund War, which I tend to agree with. After all, the Sonderbund war was fought specifically to resist greater centralization, and while victory gave the Radicals/Liberals/Federalists/whatever more power than the lack of conflict, the (more Protestant, more French, and more urban) radicals are only going to see their power increase as the country urbanizes and peasants pour into the cities and get more educated.

That said, let's assume that the cantons remain fairly loosely confederated. First off, infrastructure and industrialization would suffer compared to OTL, both due to a lack of funds and interest in Confederation-spanning projects, and due to cantons having trouble negotiating bi- and multi-partite agreements for regional projects; this is especially the case when you consider that the "country" cantons will probably go out of their way to prevent anything that looks too much like integration (I think that the rural German Swiss may be the single most conservative group on the European continent). Switzerland would likely be poorer and less urbanized, as it would be more difficult for peasants to leave the country for urban centers, as the major urban centers are mostly their own cantons (though this might see the boost of more modest cities in "country" cantons, like Lausanne or Bern.).

Second, though, is what happens instead of the Sonderbund War? Like all wars, it didn't happen in a vacuum. It was, in a very real way, a reactionary revolt against a newly elected government the Sonderbund were afraid would start passing laws they didn't like. The ostensible causus belli was the seizure of a few monasteries and convents, but that was just an excuse. It's hard to tell because both sides threw around a lot of rhetoric and angry accusations, but it seems pretty inevitable to me that the radicals are eventually going to do something that pisses off the farmers.

Furthermore, there's absolutely no chance of the Sonderbund winning any kind of long war, as the population and wealth distribution is too lop-sided. That said, neither side really did have much stomach for battle (especially the Confederal forces, who were even led by someone who didn't like the radicals very much), and if there's any terrain that works to offset a disadvantage in numbers, in rural Switzerland. If the Sonderbund is able to achieve some good successes early in the war, they might well be able to bring the Confederal forces to the bargaining table and, I dunno, secure more rights for the Catholic Church, resecure some cantonal rights, stuff like that. In which case...see my second paragraph, maybe, but more likely OTL but a little slower.
 
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